Sunday, December 18, 2011

Week 15 picks

And I'm taking...

- Dallas over Tampa Bay, because the Buccaneers are truly horrid at the moment. That's not to say the Cowboys are kicking butt, but they're a better team at least on paper.

- Miami over Buffalo, because despite being a little banged up, Miami should have enough to overcome the stumbling Bills.

- Seahawks over Bears, which was a hard one to bring myself to pick, but the fact is that a Forte and Cutler less Bears are even worse than the Seahawks.

- Texans over the Panthers, because the Texans still have a defense capable of keeping them in a game, unlike Carolina.

- Titans over Colts. Just... you know why.

- Packers over Chiefs. See above.

- Saints over Vikings. The Vikings secondary against the Saints passing attack is a horrendous mismatch.

- Giants over Redskins, because I think the Giants have been unlucky at times and still pack a mean punch.

- Bengals over Rams, because it's the Rams.

- Lions over Raiders, because the Raiders injury list could be practically overlayed on their roster and you wouldn't be able to tell the difference.

- Cardinals over Browns, because the Cardinals have been surprisingly good lately and the Browns... well they're the Browns.

- Patriots over Broncos, because as much as I love Tebow and the Broncos, they surely can't beat the Patriots. Can they? No way...

- Eagles over Jets, because if the Eagles are going to win another game this year then this basically is their best shot.

- Ravens over Chargers, because the Ravens are less likely to kill themselves in this one, though doubtless they'll give it a damn good shot.

- Steelers over 49ers, because I'm a 49ers fan and even I have to admit, with a heavy heart, that our team has basically bullshitted it's way to a 10-3 record.

So that's my Week 15 picks. I can't believe we only have three weekends of regular season football left. Where does all the time go? Anyway, two things on my schedule for the coming week. I want to look at the three step drop in a little more detail and also take a look at the potential free agent market for 2012. Not necessarily in that order.

And as Christmas approaches I think you should embrace the Christmas spirit (put that vodka down, that's not what I meant) and give an early gift to someone. Namely the URL to my blog...


Teoita said...

Sucks when you are basically the only person in the country watching american football :(

Anyway, as a christmas present, i bring you this article:

I'm sure you will enjoy it ^^

Chris said...

I had to laugh Teoita;

"Now for the bad. In my 20-plus years in the NFL, I don't think I have seen a high first-round pick look as scared or as out of place as Blaine Gabbert. The game looks entirely too big for him. When the ball is in his hand, he treats it like a hot potato. His play was embarrassing, considering he was a top 10 pick. I believed Gabbert was a good prospect and wrote about it leading up to the draft. When everyone was concerned about his down-field throws, I thought he would be able to adjust. But never did I think his eye level would be this low, his unwillingness to hang in the pocket this bad"

But that's precisely the problem. Everyone was thinking the same way as Lombardi. Not once did I hear a bad word about him. Not once did anyone comment on his inability to stand in the pocket and throw, despite having hours of game tape of him doing it.

This made me spit my coffee over the keyboard though;

"Who says you can't find quarterbacks in later rounds? Skelton and Yates look as good if not better than early picks Christian Ponder, Dalton and Gabbert."

While I agree with the first part, and that Skelton and Yates are better than Gabbert, I think it's a little early to say they've topped Ponder and Dalton, with Dalton in particular.

Between them Skelton and Yates have played about 8 games against some so-so opposition, with Yates sucking it up against the Carolina D this week and Skelton struggling at times against Cleveland.

And whereas Yates has benefitted from Arian Foster and Skelton has Fitzgerald, Minnesota have hardly used Peterson to support Ponder, while Dalton has gotten some pretty decent play out of the rookie Green.

It's far too early to start judging Yates, Skelton, and Ponder, and a little early to be judging Dalton.

Gabbert is simply beyond help though...

Teoita said...

Well to be fair, he isn't THAT bad, it's just that the whole team is terrible.

Which in turn makes you appreciate David Garrard a lot more.

Honestly i don't know why bad teams risk their first round pick rather than getting a veteran qb to tutor them for a couple of years; off the top of my head the only time that has worked out well was Mat Ryan, but he did have some talented players on offense...

Anyway, i'm glad you enjoyed the article; sorry about any damage to your keyboard ^^

Oh and T.J. Yates was pretty bad at North Carolina despite having Hakeem Nicks and Ben Tate to throw to, so i don't think he'll be that good.

Chris said...

Yes, Gabbert is that bad! Not irridemable, granted. But very bad. I think the Jaguars felt that they needed to make a change though.

As for rookie first round quarterbacks, it depends how they're handled. Compare for example Aaron Rodgers to Alex Smith. If a kid is good enough and you need him, or will need him in the next few years, then by all means bite.

I think the major problems a lot of teams have is that they trust the media's perceptions of quarterbacks too much (see Gabbert and Locker as first rounders) and they fall into the "he went in the first round, therefore he must play now" trap.

There is nothing wrong with using a first round pick on a kid and then sitting on him for a while. I know coaches don't always feel they have the job security to sit on their man, which explains a lot, but at some point the GM or owner has to wise up and think long term.

Consider Bill Walsh for example, who drafted Montana in his first year, but only used him in situational packages until '81. He (Walsh) only won four games in his first two years, then a Super Bowl in number 3.

As for T.J. Yates, it's not looking pretty right now, but we'll have to wait and see.