Thursday Night recap

Now that Thursday nights games are done, it's time to have a peek and see how my picks got on. Packers 34 @ Lions 12: I had a feeling it might end like this. Basically three players made the difference; Stafford, Rodgers and Woodson. Stafford put his excellent performance from Sunday behind him and promptly threw 4 interceptions. Turning the ball over like that has plagued Stafford all season, you just have to hope he will get better with time, which I think he will. It also doesn't help to only get two completions to your best receiver, Calvin Johnson. Last week Johnson caught 7 passes for 161 yards. Use him. As for Aaron Rodgers, he got the ball to his two best receivers a combined 11 times for 195 yards and a TD. That's the way to do it. Rodgers finished just two yards shy of 350 yards passing with 3 TDs and no picks. And finally, probably the most impressive of them all was Packers CB Charles Woodson who despite being 333 years old managed to notch up 6 tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack, 2 interceptions and a forced fumble. Nice job. 1-0. Raiders 7 @ Cowboys 24: Yesterday I said "..... the Cowboys do have the kind of rushing attack that could rip Oakland apart, but they just don't have the balls to say no to Tony Romo so expect that great triple team to be under utilized once again". Uhm, it looks like Wade Phillips and his crew grew the required balls overnight. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice combined alone for over 130 yards on just 10 carries, with Marion Barber tacking on another 61. I never expected the Raiders to do anything special, I just didn't think the 'Boys would either. Boy was I wrong. Romo even found the courage to largely ignore Roy Williams in the open field and go for his two best receivers (Austin & Witten) instead, who paid him back handsomely. 1-1. Giants 6 @ Broncos 26: Again I'd like to quote myself from yesterday "And that's the issue I have with the Giants in this game. They don't/won't run the ball enough. Instead they put it all on Eli and expect him to roll out a repeat of his Superbowl performance. And it's not gonna happen". Psychic or what? 40 passes, completed just 24, and only 15 carries for his backs. That's always bad news. Eli is not that good. Meanwhile I had a feeling (as also mentioned yesterday) that the Broncos might take some shots down field against a banged up Giants secondary. And they did. Brandon Marshall was displaying some superb one handed skills as the Broncos offense finally found some life again. 2-1. Not a bad start pick wise, but there's plenty of action coming up this week to either boost my tally or tear me down. Tomorrow I'll tell you exactly which teams I'm backing.

Thursday Night Football picks

It's Wednesday night/Thursday morning, which can only mean one thing....... Thursday Night Football picks!!! Packers @ Detroit : Well, what can you say? Detroit has, without doubt, the worst pass defense I've seen in a long time. The Packers meanwhile have probably one of the best overall receiving corps in the league. And to cap it all, they're just finding their running game again. Last time these two teams met the Lions were missing QB Matthew Stafford, and by a cruel twist of fate they may be without him again for this game. I'm sorry Lions fans, I can't see how your team is gonna compete in this one. Packers win. Raiders @ Cowboys : Hmmm, not as bad a match up as you might think. Yes the Raiders suck, but so do the Cowboys at the moment. Expect the men in Silver and Black to put shutdown corner Nnamdi Asomugha on Cowboys receiver Miles Austin, and then get pressure on Tony Romo with trade scoop Richard Seymour. To counter, the Cowboys do have the kind of rushing attack that could rip Oakland apart, but they just don't have the balls to say no to Tony Romo so expect that great triple team to be under utilized once again. I think, as scary as this might be, that the Raiders might actually win this game. Raiders win (did I just say that?). Giants @ Broncos : Everyone is jumping on the New York bandwagon. And I'm not really sure why. They're not all that special of late. Last week they barely scraped a win against what's been a pretty average Falcons team this season. The only down point everyone is moaning about is the lack of production from their run game. Now I'm sorry, but it's obvious that it's not for a want of trying. The trouble is that the Giants don't run the ball anywhere near as often as they pass. You can't post gaudy numbers if you don't get the ball. Just ask Frank Gore or Terrell Owens. Why isn't the Panthers rushing attack leading the league? Is it because DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have gone cold? No, it's because the Panthers just love Jake Delhomme (I hate them Panthers). And that's the issue I have with the Giants in this game. They don't/won't run the ball enough. Instead they put it all on Eli and expect him to roll out a repeat of his Superbowl performance. And it's not gonna happen. Especially against two of the best defenders out there; Broncos Safety Brian Dawkins and Cornerback Champ Bailey. And what's more, people have been hitting the Broncos offense hard for not taking deep shots. But they did against the Redskins. And I think they will against this banged up Giants secondary. It's a bit of a hail mary still, but I'm taking the Broncos. Broncos win. And there is even a little bit of time left for me to shell out some extra, extra credit: Matthew Stafford (Lions) -- I know he already got some yesterday, but that's why it's called extra, extra credit. And I've now had the full chance to check out those last two plays from Sunday. The NFL Network did a great job putting up a video on NFL.com of Stafford wired for sound. What you realise listening to the things he said is that the guy is tough. Physically, but most importantly, mentally. He has the physical attributes, we know that. He will get better at reading coverage and making plays as time goes on. But that toughness he showed will endear him to his team more than any TD pass. It's the kind of thing that separates the men from the boys, and the Matthew Stafford's from the JaMarcus Russell's.

Week 11 Extra Credit

The week is done, time to shell out some extra credit: Jake Delhomme (Panthers) -- The dude must be a magician or something. How else can you throw less than a 50% completion rate and still convince the coaches next week to place the game on your shoulders again? Even with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in the backfield. Joey Porter (Dolphins) -- 7 tackles, 1 assist and 2 sacks. Mean machine keeping the Dolphins D rolling. Derrick Mason (Ravens) -- When you hit 35, people start to question your ability to produce on the field. Mason caught 9 balls for 142 yards. Nice. London Fletcher (Redskins) -- 8 tackles, 5 assists, 1 interception and a forced fumble. The Redskins D can still do it. Shame their offense cant. Tony Romo (Cowboys) -- Only threw one touchdown, but still managed to win. The guy must eat lucky charms for breakfast. Patrick Crayton (Cowboys) -- When the Cowboys need a clutch play, either offensively or special teams, it's always this man stepping up to the plate. Brady Quinn (Browns) -- 21/33, 304 yards and 4 TDs are you kidding me? Now where did the real Browns offense go? Matthew Stafford (Lions) -- 26/43, 422 yards, 5 TDs and we'll overlook the 2 picks.Now, where did the real Lions offense go? Larry Foote (Lions) -- 9 tackles, 3 assists and a sack. Just what the Doctor ordered. Larry Foote might just qualify as being a human life support machine. Frank Gore (49'ers) -- thought he was going to be the center piece of the new 49'ers offense, but sadly he has to spend another year watching his team fruitlessly toss the ball around. The desire to involve Michael Crabtree likely has something to do with that. Shame. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) -- only sacked twice. He's getting better. Terrell Owens (Bills) -- 9 catches, 197 yards, and a TD. Now do you understand why he complains when he doesn't get the ball? Chris Chambers (Chiefs) -- Brought in a few weeks ago off waivers, he's learnt the system quickly, nabbing 4 catches for 119 yards against the Steelers. Brett Favre (Vikings) -- Just bow. That is all. Michael Boley (Giants) -- When they needed someone to come up big, he did. 11 tackles, 2 assists, and a sack. Pierre Thomas and Michael Bell (Saints) -- Forget about Reggie Bush's high flying antics, these two are the real drive that pushes the Saints to victory week in, week out. James Laurinaitis (Seahawks) -- Posted 16 tackles as he valiantly tried to stop the Cardinals. Mark Sanchez (Jets) -- 8/21, with 4 INTs. It's the "San-chise" now remember? Wes Welker (Patriots) -- 15 catches, 192 yards, and the guy is only 5'9. Tully Banta-Cain (Patriots) -- 4 tackles, an assist, 2 sacks and a forced fumble. Nice days work. Leigh Bodden (Patriots) -- Only made 3 tackles, but 3 interceptions made a big impact. Bruce Gradkowski (Raiders) -- 17/34, 183 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. On any other team that would be just a run of the mill performance, barely worth a mention. But for the Raiders, that practically makes you Tom Brady. I can't help but think all the hype surrounding this guy is gonna look stupid when he falls flat on his face soon. Tyvon Branch (Raiders) -- Who? Yeah I know. But 11 tackles, an assist, a sack and a forced fumble, may gain the 22 year old sophomore a little more attention. Michael Vick (Eagles) -- Busted out a 34 yard run. Yeah that's it. He might actually draw some hefty attention in the off season trade market though, what with the recent performances of Vince Young in Tennessee. Maybe Vick is paying Young a bonus every time he rushes for a first down. Lance Briggs (Bears) -- 10 tackles, an assist and a sack. The Bears could do with more play like this.... Charles Tillman (Bears) -- .... or this. 6 tackles, an assist and 3 forced fumbles. One of the few players it would seem who's learnt to punch the ball at the point where it meets the elbow. Vince Young (Titans) -- His throwing stats weren't stellar, and nor were his rushing stats. But he did do two key things; He didn't throw a pick (ok so he fumbled once but hey, at least he's not Jay Cutler), and when he did run, he picked up a collection of important first downs. That is gonna cause big problems for defensive co-ordinators in the future. Well, that's all we have time for this week. As always, if you like what you read, spread the word.

week 11 recap.

Recap time!! I was exceptionally busy yesterday, denying me the chance to do a recap then and also denying me the chance to check out highlights of some of the games, so I'll just have to quickly go through the weekends action now. Lets get on with it shall we, remembering that I took the Panthers for Thursday night (hate the Panthers) which leaves me 0-1 so far: Colts 17 @ Ravens 15 : The Colts seem to have a thing about tight games. No matter who they're playing, they seem determined to only win the game by a few points. Still, the Colts bandwagon rolls on. 1-1. Redskins 6 @ Cowboys 7 : Betts got himself injured and what ensued was probably one of the worst games of football in recent memory. The Cowboys are really starting to struggle lately. It's usually about this time of year that they disintegrate offensively, and this year looks no different. 1-2. Browns 37 @ Lions 38 : Who in their right mind would have picked this as probably the most entertaining game of the week? Check out Brady Quinn spreading the ball around, albeit against the worst pass defense in the league right now. And the Lions rallying to win it with no time on the clock? Crazy stuff. 2-2. 49'ers 24 @ Packers 30 : The score doesn't do Green Bay justice, as they leaped into an early lead. Contrary to my analysis on Friday, the 49'ers rushed the ball with Frank Gore just 7 times. I feel sorry for Frank. The guy has pro bowl potential in spades. I could understand if he wanted out of San Fran. 2-3. Bills 15 @ Jaguars 18 : Both Teams struggled on the ground. For Buffalo that's no real surprise. For Jacksonville that's big. Jones-Drew gives them their best chance of winning and I think they need to spell Rashad Jennings in more to ease the load. Their passing game is still a little inconsistent. 3-3. Steelers 24 @ Chiefs 27 : What in gods name happened? Answer, Ben Roethlisberger threw the ball 42 times. 42!!! The Steelers are suffering from "Mark Sanchez syndrome" as I like to call it. This is where a QB has a few good games, pretty solid, and then for no reason his team instantly heaps it's entire offensive hopes upon his back. 42 passes? When you have Parker, Mendenhall and Moore in the backfield? Are you kidding me? 3-4. Sehawks 9 @ Vikings 35 : Surprise, surprise. 4 TDs for the ancient one mark his place as the top QB in the land right now. 4-4. Falcons 31 @ Giants 34 : Mannings foot has healed, just ask the Falcons! 5-4. Saints 38 @ Buccaneers 7 : Ok, so this was perhaps a little optimistic on my part. 5-5. Cardinals 21 @ Rams 13 : Cards keep finding ways to win. Playing the Rams helps a lot. Losing Warner is a blow, but their rushing attack has matured at just the right time. Coach Ken Wisenhunt is sitting in his office somewhere, smiling evilly, as his grand master plan comes to fruition. 6-5. Chargers 32 @ Broncos 3 : Norv Turner is sitting in his office somewhere, smiling evilly........ as the Chargers chalk up another win, this time over their only real rivals for the division. Like the way that the Chargers aren't happy with the normal three back attack that a lot of teams favour, they went four ways against the Broncos. Worked as well. 7-5. Jets 14 @ Patriots 31 : It's the "Sanchize". Oops, no it's not. It's the "Bodden-chise". 3 picks for Bodden and another for Meriweather as the Lord of the Rings impersonators club takes the Jets to the cleaners. In Mordor. 8-5. Bengals 17 @ Raiders 20 : All the headlines seem to read "Gradkowski stuns Bengals". By completing more than 50% of his passes maybe? He still only went 17/34. Let's not forget that. The Bengals were just poor, as Palmer only connected on 14/22. 8-6. Eagles 24 @ Bears 20 : Heavens above, Cutler threw only 1 pick!! It was funny to hear Bears fans booing Matt Forte. I was thinking "c'mon guys, we all know the o-line is rubbish. Wait a minute, who the hell is Kahlil Bell?"...... and then he ran for 72 yards. Anyone getting excited that this might hail a resurgence was gutted to find out that on his next three runs he would combine for just another 9 yards. Michael Vick also came out and surprisingly rushed for more yards on one carry than he has all year combined. The Eagles still have their problems though. Like getting guys onto the field and into the huddle. 9-6. Titans 20 @ Texans 17 : The ball keeps rolling for Tennessee. Just. The wind helped them in this one, pushing Kris Browns 49 yard field goal attempt wide of the uprights. Well, they do say it's better to be lucky than good. Still, I'd rather have Chris Johnson in the backfield... oh wait, they do. 10-6. Right, that's that for the week. 10-6 not bad, but not great. The Bengals and Steelers games were a shock that otherwise would have left me at 12-4. And don't even get me started on the Panthers. I hate them. My season tally (started in week 7) now runs at 47-24. Not bad. Tomorrow I can feel some extra credit coming on.

0-6 to 10-6?

So, can the Tennessee Titans really claw their way back from an 0-6 start to a 10-6 finish? Let's have a look.... First off, look at the secondary. Chris Hope, Cortland Finnegan and Michael Griffin all went to the Pro Bowl last year. All are now fit and healthy, returning the Titans defense back to the dominant form it found last year. Next, check out the running back tandem. Chris Johnson and Lendale White are getting involved again. And by involved, I mean the coaches in Tennessee are once again realising that last year it was largely these two guys who carried their offense to the playoffs. Johnson in particular has come into his own. The guy showed in his rookie season that he had speed. Now that has been complemented with a season's worth of experience in the NFL and he looks like arguably the most dangerous back in the land. In the passing game, his quick feet, agility and body control make him a great underneath receiver. And normally when you're talking about a QB making checkdowns, everyone sees it in a derogatory light. When you're checking down to Chris Johnson however, it's seen in a whole new light. And no, we can't talk about the Titans without bringing up Vince Young. In college, Young drew national attention because of his athletic ability and his high passer rating, largely a result of keeping the ball safe and using his checkdown receivers (that's what they're there for after all). This guy can burn you through the air, or on the ground. And he is just about a perfect fit for the current Titans team. The key is, he doesn't take silly chances, he controls the ball, and gives his offense every opportunity to break out on a big play. Defenses are in bind. On a rushing play, you have to factor in the QB as a threat, something that defenses in this league are not used to doing. You're getting Option plays that NFL teams haven't seen before. When Young drops back to pass, someone has to spy on Young and make sure he doesn't break out of the pocket for a run. And all the while the Titans are playing keep away, holding the ball and burning the clock. Any turnover against the Titans now can be crippling. And finally, we have to look at their schedule. They play Houston on Monday which they should win. Then they have, in order; the Cardinals, the Colts, Rams, Dolphins, Chargers & Seahawks. There are potential banana skins in there, don't get me wrong. But the way the Titans are playing right now, they are a match for any of those teams. The Titans have pulled the winning formula out of the bag just at the crucial moment. Can they finish 10-6? I think they can. What's more, I think they can go all the way to the promised land and book a date in Miami against the NFC's Minnesota Vikings. But you know me, I don't crown Superbowl champions in November......

Week 11 NFL picks

Ok, Friday night/Saturday morning time, which means it's time for my week 11 picks. So far I'm already 0-1 this week (I hate them Panthers) which brings me up to 37-18 so far over these last 4 weeks or so. Last week I had a stormer, this week I'm not so confident. Anyway, here we go: Colts@ Ravens : The Colts are undefeated, but that's not why I'm taking them. I think against New England they got awful lucky to scrape a win at the end. It seemed that ultimately a lot of things conspired (metaphorically) to defeat the Patriots, including their own coach. Against a tough Ravens D I'm guessing they'll struggle a bit more than last week. The key is though, the Ravens O has gone flat. They scored just 1 offensive touchdown against the Browns, purely because they caught them out during a muddled substitution. I can't seem them keeping up with Manning. Colts win. Redskins@ Cowboys : If the Cowboys play to expectations, they should toast the Redskins. They have a three headed beast of a rushing attack. If Barber, Choice and in particular Felix Jones get going, it'll be a long afternoon for the Redskins. But, and this is a big but, if Romo gets nervous as he tends to do around this time of year, then it could go the other way. Romo has a tendency to cave under pressure, which explains the number of balls thrown Roy Williams's way last week. And against a high ranked Redskins defense, I don't like the outlook. Ladell Betts should have another big day on the ground, possibly becoming the focal point of the Redskins offense. Chuck in some play action to get the ball to Santana Moss and the Redskins have a good shout. Redskins win. Browns@ Lions : The Lions are bad, but the Browns are far worse. To cap it all off, they've lost primary playmaker Joshua Cribbs to injury. Expect Cleveland to face a lot of short fields and to have to throw to get into the game. That's always bad news for them. Stafford meanwhile has come along ok for the Lions. He has Calvin Johnson back and fit, and they are growing in confidence with their running game, powered by 2nd year back Kevin Smith. I like the Lions in this one. Lions win. 49ers@ Packers : My brilliant boys (ha ha) in Red & Gold head north to face Green Bay. And win it. The Packers defense came alive last week, but the 49ers D has been alive and kicking all season. Expect Packers QB Aaron Rodgers to spend more time chewing the grass this week. The trouble for San Fran' has been getting their offense going. I think this week, given the location and conditions, they'll turn to Frank Gore to help carry the load. And that's going to be explosive. 49ers win. Bills@ Jaguars : There is nothing, not a thing, to recommend the Bills in this one. They have the worst rushing defense in the entire league, and they're about to play host to one of the best backs in the league. Maurice Jones-Drew is going to have a field day. And on top of that, if he gets around 10 carries I can see rookie Rashad Jennings going for over 100 as well. Jaguars win. Steelers@ Chiefs : Oh lord. Jamaal Charles is in for a tough week against the leagues leading rush defense. The only other option they have is to throw the ball and try and get Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers involved. Not easy when you have the Steelers secondary waiting to pounce. Even with Troy Polamalu out, the Steelers D is still dangerous. That's before we even begin to talk about how good their offense is. Steelers win. Seahawks@ Vikings : Are you kidding me? Vikings win. Falcons@ Giants : The Giants have been slumping of late. Good thing then that Michael Turner is injured as it makes their task a hell of a lot easier against this Falcons team. The Giants are coming off a bye. They've had a chance to rest, heal up, organise themselves, and iron out some of the wrinkles in their game. Expect the Giants to come at the Falcons hard with their tough rushing attack and pound the Falcons light D-line. Eli should be healthy enough to pick his targets and put up some numbers. Giants win. Saints@ Buccaneers : There are two things I want you to consider here. 1) In my opinion, the Saints have been damn lucky at times to stay undefeated. Coaching errors abound by their opposition, the Saints have scraped through. 2) For all the talk about Darren Sharper as the defensive play maker, its really been CBs Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter who have kept this defensive unit on track. Their coverage play and run support has been vital. Now consider that Greer and Porter are both injured. And that Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman is just finding his groove. Every time I've picked against the Saints they've managed to rustle up some kind of miraculous escape from the jaws of doom. Not this week. Buccaneers win. Cardinals@ Rams : The Rams have the ever present threat of Steven Jackson in their backfield. But bizarrely, I'm more interested in the Cardinals rushing attack. Wells and Hightower have started stamping some authority over teams of late, relieving some of the pressure on QB Kurt Warner to do all the work himself. I like their newly found balancing act. Cardinals win. Chargers@ Broncos : The Broncos QB Kyle Orton is nursing an injury. Without him, they're a little screwed. The Chargers are just finding their groove. Rivers is making good connections through the air, Merriman is starting to tee off on opposition QBs, and Tomlinson has found some inspiration to run hard again. Watch out. Chargers win. Jets@ Patriots : During pre-season, Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan said he wasn't about to kiss Bill Belichicks Superbowl rings. Maybe not, but his team is still about to get creamed by the Patriots. Brady & Belichick will no doubt be a little annoyed with themselves for their part in last weeks 4th down debacle. This week expect them to open the taps and let the Jets have everything they've got. Expect the Jets coaches to continue pandering to Mark Sanchez, resulting in picks that the Pats offense will happily convert into points. This one could get ugly. Patriots win. Bengals@ Raiders : Bruce Gradkowski is set to start this week for the Raiders. Oh dear lord. I know I always make fun of JaMarcus Russell, often with good reason, but he has many of the same problems they have in Cleveland. Namely, his receivers suck. Even on the rare occasions when Russell makes a good choice and slots the ball in nicely, his receivers often dump it on the turf. Bruce is unlikely to change the status quo. The Bengals meanwhile are dominating in every phase of play and especially on defence. If the Raiders throw any loose passes (which they will) expect Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph to start racking up the picks. Bengals win. Eagles@ Bears : Simply put, the Bears O-line can't generate any push up front to get their rushing attack going. This means that Jay Cutler has to try and win every game single handed. That's a problem when you have a defensive assault like the Eagles generate coming to town. With Asante Samuel lurking in the Eagles secondary, it just gets worse for the Bears. On the other side of the field, the Eagles will be splitting their rushing attack between LeSean McCoy and Leonard Weaver. That equals bad news for the Bears. These two are going to have a hell of a game. Oh yeah, and the Eagles aren't to shabby when they throw the ball either. Eagles win. Titans@ Texans : Tough match. The Texans are still playing around trying to find their offensive identity. The Titans however have finally got theirs locked in stone; Give the ball to Chris Johnson and LenDale White, pound the rock, and then let Vince Young take controlled chances in the passing game. Couple that with probably the most dangerous and legitimate option attack in the league right now, and it really is a case of "Houston, we have a problem....". Titans win. So there you have it, short and sweet. I was a little pressed for time so I couldn't go quite into as much depth as I'd like. Having said at the start I wasn't so confident about this week, I actually now think I might be in with a good shout of pulling off another 10 win showing. Unless of course, I've just cursed myself...... Tomorrow I want to have a look at the Titans, and see if they really can come back from the brink and finish 10-6. And as always, if you enjoy what you're reading and you follow the blog then a) Thank you very much and b) spread the word next time you're at the office water cooler.

I hate the Panthers....

Dolphins 24 @ Panthers 17 : I hate the Panthers!! Earlier in the week I commented that Ricky Williams is probably a better all round back than Ronnie Brown. I think tonight he took a big step towards proving that. I also mentioned when I was making my pick that there was a good chance the Panthers might get too excited about the reasonable success of their passing game last week. And surprise, surprise, here I am, 0-1 to start the week. God damn it!!! Jake Delhomme threw 42 passes and completed just 19. Why? For the love of god why are they so desperate to give him the ball and let him throw games (literally) away? You have DeAngelo Williams in the backfield. Let me reiterate that. You have DeAngelo Williams in the backfield. He got just 13 carries, which he managed to convert into 122 yards. This guy needs more touches. And yeah, I know they have Steve Smith on the outside. When he gets the ball he's great. Trouble is he only catches around 50-60% of the passes thrown his way. I can't remember the last time Williams muffed a hand off. If DeAngelo was playing somewhere else, say Pittsburgh or Baltimore, the guy would be chasing Chris Johnson for total rushing yardage. Anyway, a good (and important) win for the Dolphins. 0-1 for me this week. I hate the Panthers.... But I'm not finished completely with this game. I wanna give some extra credit: Davone Bess (Dolphins) -- His stats weren't great for the game, but he made some great catches and worked really hard to get open for his young and inexperienced QB. That's great team play. Bess is a trooper. Lex Hilliard (Dolphins) -- Who? Rookie RB had 4 carries for 24 yards. He ran hard on those carries and will likely get the first bite at sharing the workload with Ricky Williams for the rest of the season. Keep an eye out for this one. DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart (Panthers) -- How tempted they must be to run over Jake Delhommes foot in the parking lot. "Oops, sorry dude, the parking brake just slipped off..." I hate the Panthers.

Options to think over in week 11

It's Wednesday night, which can only mean one thing. It's time to make a pick for Thursday Night Football!!!! Dolphins @ Panthers : An interesting match up this week. Both these teams conspire on a regular basis to do me out of a pick. I wouldn't be surprised if this goes all the way to, and through, overtime, just to annoy me. So, two questions. 1) Which Dolphins team will show up this week? 2) Which Panthers team will show up this week? I ask only because it could make all the difference. It's been something like 3 weeks now since Jake Delhomme threw a pick. Steve Smith is starting to make waves again in the passing game. They're getting Muhsin Muhammad involved as well (proving the old guys can still get it done for you). That's great, right until the point they decide that's how to win games. The fact is that their passing attack has come along in leaps and bounds lately because teams are stacking against the run, giving Delhomme easy reads and one on one match ups on the outside. On the flip side we have the Dolphins and their young QB Chad Henne. They too work best by running the rock and forcing teams to stack up against the run, giving Henne much easier coverage reads. It's going to be a battle of nerves on Thursday. Who can stick with the run game the longest? Who can resist the temptation to try and emulate the Patriots with 5 receiver sets? But don't discount Miami's joker card; the Wildcat. Even without Ronnie Brown, the threat of Pat White and Ricky Williams is still big. They role that out for a crucial 4th down or in the Redzone and it could make all the difference. Still, I think the Panthers are playing the better football lately, they've found a groove, and they win this game. Panthers win. And in case I hadn't mentioned it before, I hate them Panthers..... And speaking of Wildcats and Pat White etc, let's talk Option football. So far two teams to my knowledge have had a proper go at it this season; The Miami Dolphins & the Tennessee Titans. Both have found some success (love the Titans running a reverse into an option play against the Bills). But for so long the NFL has quashed the option and people have been adamant that it wouldn't work, so lets look at some of the arguments for and against it: "Defenses are too fast" -- As Judge Judy might say, "Ah Baloney!!". Yeah defenses are typically faster at this level, but hey, so are running backs and wide receivers. This argument is the most common and poorest of them all. I don't care if you've got Usain Bolt at DE. The whole point of an option play is to block everyone except your DE, no matter how fast he is, and then make him chose. Does he go for the QB? Then pitch it. Does he take the pitch man? Then keep it. No matter how quick he is, he has to make a choice. He has to go for either A or B. Whichever one he chooses, you do the opposite. He can be fast as lightning, but he's still gonna end up chasing the play. "I don't want my $10 million a year QB getting hit" -- This one is more troublesome. You pay a guy big money, you can't expose him to so much danger. It's not that he can't take it, but simply a case that if he breaks his hand or twists his ankle running an option play, there goes your offense. The only solution is to roll out the backup, which presents two problems; a) you're indicating that an option play might be about to come up & b) there's a reason this guy is your backup. The big talk for example in Philadelphia has been that when Michael Vick comes onto the field, you're disrupting your normal offense. I think the point has some validity. And how long before defenses start taking away the pitch man (typically a RB) as a matter of course and saying "yes Mr. QB, let's see how well you can run....." "It's too easy to defend" -- Yeah, right. Just like all those power run plays that get busted for big yards and the deep passing plays that are gobbled up because they're so 'easy' to defend. The option is just like most other plays in football. It's an exchange between two players. There are different ways of blocking it. There are different formations it can be run from. There are ways to give the ball to people who wouldn't normally make the exchange. For every counter there is a counter-counter. Paul Johnson has been quite adept in his career as a College coach at finding ways to overcome the anti-option defenses. It's just a matter of application, elbow grease and a bit of creative thinking. "It's just a trick play" -- Only if you practice it just once or twice a week and use it even less. If you commit practice time to it, as the Dolphins have with the Wildcat, and you commit to using it every game for at least a few plays, then it becomes a solid tool in your offense. It becomes no more a trick play than any other play that you run just two or three times a game. And it still has the advantage of being a little unusual. Most NFL offenses run the same 5 or 6 run plays as everyone else. The same plays that everyone has run for 30 or more years. You have the off tackle run, the toss sweep, the dive, the draw, the trap, & the stretch/zone run, to name a few (almost all). The blocking schemes are different and they're run from different formations, but that's pretty much it, the staple run game of most NFL teams. The option is something you don't see an awful lot, thus it has a surprise element to it. Well, that concludes my little option discussion for now, maybe we'll pick it up again another day. I think now might be a good time to share the love and dish out some mid-week extra credit: Chad Ochocinco (Bengals) -- When questioned by reporters about new team mate Larry Johnson, Ochocinco swept aside any talk about the guys off field issues. He emphasised that Johnson is another weapon in an already potent offense and stressed that he was happy with anyone who made the team stronger and could help take them forward. That's a top draw play right there. I'm not sure whether Chad is considered a locker room leader in Cincinnati, but certainly his comments always draw attention and must stick in the back of players minds. This was an excellent way to show support for his new team mate and to help convince the rest of the roster that it's a good move, one that can only help them in the long run. Whether or not it was a good move remains to be seen. Props to Chad, one of the funniest and most talented players on the field today. Tomorrow night I'll round up the Dolphins @ Panthers, and then on Friday it's time to let loose and make all the rest of my Week 11 NFL picks.

More Belichick

I was just reading on another blog where the author, with absolutely no hint of shame, told his readers that some people still wont believe something is true when you present them with evidence. This is of course, referring still to the infamous "4th & 2" decision made by Bill Belichick. And the reason I say he has no shame is because yes, if you have evidence, that's one thing. But the author and his stat hungry friends are adamant that the stats and percentages etc all made Belichicks decision the best option. They are still churning out stats that 'since 2001...' blah, blah. Honestly, who gives a crap what the Patriots did in 2001. Did they have Welker, Moss, Watson, Faulk and the poor unfortunate who's name escapes me on the field in 2001? Nope. So it matters not. I wanna know how the Pats have got on this year, with these personnel, under this scheme, with their current co-ordinator. The answer was a 50% 4th down conversion ratio, not 60% or even the ridiculous 90% that I heard yesterday (the speaker of that quote shall remain nameless to hide his embarassment). And the big thing that bugs me most of all about the Belichick lovers? They keep saying he made the right choice blah, blah, etc, etc. Question: Did the Pats make it? Nope. With the benefit of hindsight, we know it was wrong. With the benefit of years of watching football and understanding the game, we all knew at the time it was wrong. This whole thing is starting to wind me up big time. It was a dumb decision. Belichick will make a mental note and he'll probably never make an identical mistake again. People will talk about odds and all that rubbish for years, and they'll keep making dumb choices like Belichick. If stats are so great, why aren't there 32 number crunchers in charge of NFL teams? Why aren't they winning back to back to back, BCS titles? Yeah, exactly.... You can check out the article that drew my ire here: http://smartfootball.com/

Random thoughts for the day

Ok so I'm gonna take the chance to share some random musings from around the NFL, the web, and anywhere else I can dig up something of note. -- I still think Belichick made the wrong the call, but it was much closer than I previously imagined. I've seen some film of the play from a high angle and what is clear is that Brady blew it. His O-line was using slide protection to the right, so at the snap everyone moves right and takes the man either head up or in the gap to their right. Normally in the shotgun you would have a back next to you and that guy would go left and take the free rusher (Dwight Freeney), but because this was an empty set, there was no-one picking him up. Brady had man coverage across the board. In this case, and I'm sure Belichick will have made the point in practice, you're looking for Wes Welker out of the slot. I don't care even if you had Randy Moss lined up against a nose tackle, you're still looking for Welker. He's your underneath guy, your possession guy, the guy with the safest hands. It's 4th & 2 with the game on the line, you go to your best player. That's Welker. Welker actually gets an inside release on his guy and is coming open behind the blitz. That's where the ball should have gone. That's where Belichick will be telling Brady he should have gone. That's where Brady will go next time. And the Pats WILL beat the Colts if they meet again. -- It's been probably about one week since I pointed out Ladell Betts and said he would go on to have a big game for the Redskins. Suddenly the media is all over Ladell Betts (in an understated way), with analysts picking him as their proverbial "dark horse" or "penny stock". This, after he posted a 100 yard rushing game last week and showed he was just as good as Clinton Portis. Better late than never guys I suppose. With that one out of the way, keep an eye out for rookie Rashad Jennings of the Jacksonville Jaguars. If he gets the chance to carry the load and give Jones-Drew a rest sometime, expect him to come flying out of the gates. Then a few days later wait for other analysts to start picking him as their 'dark horse', 'penny stock' etc, etc. -- Larry Johnson is headed to Cincinnati everyone! Let's not get mistaken here, Benson is still the man in Bengal land. But as the inclement weather closes in on the North American continent, look for the Bengals to lean a bit more on their run game, possibly including Johnson. And don't be surprised if he does pretty well. The Bengals have a tough O-line that is just dominating people right now. -- Brian Westbrook is possibly done for the season. This is just about the best news (in a really morbid and unfortunate way) that Eagles fans could hope for. Enter now LeSean 'Shady' McCoy and FB Leonard Weaver. McCoy has already shown that he brings big play potential to the Eagles rushing attack and Weaver is the power back that the Eagles desperately need in short yardage and goal line situations. This could spark an offensive riot for the Eagles. But then again, the way they call plays on offense, it could just be another season of missed opportunities. -- The Bills have sacked head coach Dick Jauron. Shame they've still got all the other pieces of their team in place really. I feel sorry for Jauron. By all accounts he's a good coach who knows his football and is a great guy. Unfortunately he just hasn't shown the required skills to bring together a team of players in a small market and get all the right pieces slotted in. There is optimism he will find a co-ordinators job somewhere else in the near future. As for the Bills, they have some issues. Trading away star LT Jason Peters in a league where star LTs are rare was not the best start. I'm also increasingly more concerned with the T.O. deal. Not because I don't like T.O., I do, but because his arrival has retarded the progress of young receivers, like James Hardy, and is taking receptions away from their true star receiver Lee Evans, the guy that they need to get the ball to more. And to cap it all, despite being one of the most northerly franchises and playing in the AFC East, they still don't have any run game to speak of. That's fine if you have Brady and the like, but when your QB is Trent Edwards, you need help. -- Ok, while we're talking about future nuggets of gold, remember the name Brit Miller. He's a FB for the 49'ers, a rookie, who can block and catch. He gets good yards after the catch and would be a perfect fit in any West Coast Offense. May take a year or two to see some regular action, but if he does then watch out.