Week 13 recap

It's Monday night, it's time for a recap of Week 13: Eagles 34 @ Falcons 7 -- Michael Vick returned to Atlanta and scooped his first touchdown since joining the Eagles. Now I'm not sure where he'll end up after next years transfer carousel has stopped, but whoever gets him is gonna have a fine year. He starting to click now inside that offense and show flashes of the old Vick. Of course it helps when you're surrounded by talent like the Eagles have. Unfortunately for the Falcons meanwhile, they have a ton of talent but no decent QB to find it as Matt Ryan is still out. Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling are not bad RBs, but they have little chance to shine when you're throwing 44 times a game. This is why teams lose games 34-7. Buccaneers 6 @ Panthers 16 -- My god, the Panthers actually came through!!! I nearly had a heart attack when I looked at the final score. Matt Moore still managed to throw a pick on his limited 20 throws, but the Panthers came up trumps as Jonathan Stewart stepped into the breech for the injured DeAngelo Williams and reminded everyone he's still an excellent back. Of course, the fact that Josh Freeman threw 5 picks, 3 in and around the endzone kinda helped as well. What makes it more surprising is the fact that he threw 44 passes against a good pass defense while the limited carries of the running backs (23) produced 124 yards against a bad rush defense. Some coaches are their own worst enemies. Rams 9 @ Bears 17 -- Jay Cutler. 17 throws, one TD, 0 picks. Matt Forte. 24 carries, 91 yards, 1 TD. This is Bears football, well at least it's getting there. Steven Jackson of the Rams carried 28 times but was largely kept in check by the Bears. All in all, a woeful game of football. Lions 13 @ Bengals 23 -- Cedric Benson is back. 36 carries, 110 yards. Why, for the love of god, would you give your prize back 36 carries against one of the worst teams in the league, when you have two good back ups to spell for him, and knowing that your place in the playoffs is close to being guaranteed? The Bengals already seem determined to take themselves out of contention for the Superbowl. Titans 17 @ Colts 27 -- Well, that's the Titans done for the year. Now please explain something to me, if you know, because I can't understand this. As a Head Coach you know that throwing the ball 40 times a game with Kerry Collins was a big part of what was killing you. When Vince Young came in, he threw the ball occasionally, held onto it, ran a few times, and let the clock run down while letting Chris Johnson batter teams senseless. So why in the hell would you come back and throw 43 passes? Of which nearly half were incomplete. Chris Johnson got 27 carries, but what happened to Vince just getting 4. Or LenDale White getting 2? Do people actually remember that White was a big factor in the Titans rushing attack last year? This kind of stuff annoys the hell out of me. Meanwhile Peyton Manning continues to make good defenses look average. Texans 18 @ Jaguars 23 -- The Jags came out and got their run/pass balance just about perfect. The Texans came out and had three different players throw interceptions. That pretty much sums it up. Also loving the way that Rashad Jennings only gets 2 carries per game. At a guess I'd say there is something in his contract that would pay him a bonus if he gets more than x carries per game/season. That's the only thing I can think of. Broncos 44 @ Chiefs 13 -- The Broncos stuffed the Chiefs with almost 250 yards on the ground. I like it. The Chiefs on the other hand came out and played, like the Chiefs. Which explains why they got beaten so badly. Patriots 21 @ Dolphins 22 -- HA!! Bill Belichick went for it on fourth down again with a field goal the better option, and surprise, surprise, it came back to bite him in the butt. It's like he is determined to prove that his decision was right. And this is what I love about all the stats people who backed Belichick last time. If the stats are so reliable then the Pats should have made at least one of these two big fourth downs. But instead they've made neither. Proof that football is not poker and there is more to play calling than knowing percentages. This percentages folly has now cost the Pats two huge games. I hope Bill and the game theory lovers are happy. And could someone please explain what the hell Chad Henne is doing throwing 52 passes? Raiders 27 @ Steelers 24 -- Holy Bruce Gradkowski Batman!!! 20/33, 308 yards and 3 TDs. For the Raiders, that practically makes you Johnny Unitas. But what is more chilling is to see the Steelers chucking the ball like they were the Patriots. They have an awesome ground game and their QB has recently suffered a concussion. Now bearing in mind that the Raiders rush defense is hardly like.... say, the Steelers, why not just stuff it down their throat? People keep criticising the Steelers D but they are actually still playing pretty good. Lay off the D, question the O. And well done the Raiders. Saints 33 @ Redskins 30 -- For once, divine intervention was on my side. Not once, not twice, not even three, nor four times... but fully five times the gods of football swooped to try and save my pick. More to the point, they swooped to save the Saints. A muffed punt return, an interception in the endzone that was then stripped and returned for a TD, a missed field goal from 23 yards, an interception in the dying seconds and then a fumble in overtime. Everyone in the entire USA is over flowing with plaudits and praise for the New Orleans Saints, supposedly tied with the Colts for the title of best team in football. What no-one is saying (and everyone seems to be conveniently over looking) is "how in the world did the Saints escape with that one?". The Redskins rank as one of the worst offenses in football right now, yet somehow the much vaunted Saints D gave up 30 points to them. And man, the list of miscues on the Redskins side of the ball that lead to the Saints win is pretty hard to cover up. If I was Redskins top man Jim Zorn I'd be feeling a mixture of anger and disbelief after that one. The Redskins had the "best team in the NFC" beat fair and square, and some how they threw it away. Just like the Dolphins did earlier in the season. When the Saints finally lose, I can't wait to hear the crying. Chargers 30 @ Browns 23 -- By all accounts, this was no where near as close as the final scoreline. Still, nod to Brady Quinn for throwing 3 TDs and no INTs, didn't think he had it in him. But they still threw 45 passes compared to 22 rushes (including QB scrambles). Compare that to the Chargers who threw 25 passes versus 28 rushes (including QB scrambles) and completed 18 for 373 yards and 2 TDs while LT punched in another on the ground. The thing about the Chargers is they grind you out and take measured shots when they know they can get a good gain. Their recent record speaks for itself. Cowboys 24 @ Giants 31 -- Nick Folk missed two field goals for the Cowboys, costing them six points. But they still would have lost by 1. Make no mistake, the Romo friendly offense is to blame. 41/55 (which is pretty damn good), 392 yards and 3 TDs. That's great, but it also means you're stuck in a potential shootout. The Cowboys have the rushing attack to take down a team like the Giants, but they simply refuse to use it. Subsequently, they give teams plenty of time and chances to beat them, which is exactly what happened. Giving up a 79 yard punt return didn't help either..... 49ers 17 @ Seahawks 20 -- Explain the logic; you have Frank Gore, a pro bowl caliber running back, and you only give him 9 carries. Even the Seahawks aren't that stupid. Gotta love the way as well that a blatant pass interference in the end zone went un called. If that had been Indy or New Orleans, the end zone would have turned yellow with flags. Vikings 17 @ Cardinals 30 -- Watching the game, four things stood out above all. First, the Vikings lack of a deep threat until about the 4th quarter. Every pass seemed to be headed out toward the flats or the 10 yard outs. No doubt this contributed to allowing the Cards to play shorter in their zones and stuff Peterson. Not that Peterson was given a chance mind. A paltry 13 carries. Yes the Cards were doing well against the run, but largely because the Vikings tried to use wide rushes that appeared to take an age to develop. It was remarkable to see a key weapon so under utilised. Not like the Cards mind, who appreciate that Warner is still their best choice. And a large part of that is his willingness to throw to Fitzgerald and Boldin, his two best receivers, who caught 15 of the 22 completions for a combined 241 yards and 3 TDs. 5 other players caught a single pass and another caught 2. The Cards put the ball in the hands of their best guys and lit it rip. Which is akin to what their D-line did. By any standard, the Cardinals front line are undersized. But they have great speed, technique and determination, which allowed them to register 3 sacks and get wide on the outside runs. They put in a sterling evenings work and were worthy winners. The Cards looked as dangerous in this game as they did during the playoffs last year, and that's where they'll be headed again if they secure a win next week. Ravens 14 @ Packers 27 -- 'Air Flacco' continues to experience turbulence on Monday Night Football. Just 15/36, for a paltry 137 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs. Ray Rice.... just 14 carries. The Ravens made the playoffs, going all the way to the AFC championship game, last year by running the ball, eating the clock, taking controlled chances in the passing game and playing tough on defense. This year they've become just the latest victim of the pass happy NFL. Meanwhile the Packers continue to improve, giving up just the one sack on offense while piling up 3 on defense, 3 interceptions and a forced fumble. Not bad at all. So that's my picks done for the week and I finished 10-6 again. Seem to have a thing about only picking 10 winners. And for a change this week, the Panthers, Dolphins and Saints all did me a favour. Somethings wrong, I can feel it. That now means that my overall tally since week 7 is now: 67-36. Not bad. Not great either. Still, look on the bright side, tomorrow is Extra Credit time.

Holding the line

So my mission today should I choose to accept it (which I will) is to convince you that offensive and defensive linemen are more important than highly paid Quarterbacks, Running backs, receivers, linebackers, and pretty much any other position on the field. I feel confident in this mission, so here goes. Running the football: Running the football does not require an 'elite' back. Larry Johnson, now of the Cincinnati Bengals, is 30 years old. His production has waned in recent years, partly due to a Kansas team that has bought into the pass happy mentality of the NFL. Yet for the Bengals he has already busted out a 100 yard rushing game. As has Cedric Benson, considered by many as a flop at his previous team the Chicago Bears. The fact is, the Bengals line are good at run blocking. They are organised, determined and physical, everything a good O-line should be. The reality is that those 5 offensive linemen can, with the help of a tight end, block six defensive linemen/linebackers (leaving one LB on the backside unblocked) and give your running back ample room to move and get going. Most rushing plays that break the line of scrimmage end one of two ways; tackled around the 10-15 yard area or busted for a big gain. Simply put, the linemen get you those first 5-10 yards, then the combination of speed & skill of the RB coupled with position and tackling skills of the secondary get you the rest. Many big runs feature power football, that is the pulling of a guard to lead block for the RB. The guard needs quick feet and good technique, but the rewards of finding such a player are ample. Combined with a big, strong tackle to help seal the edge, they are often the catalyst to most big gains. And your running back really doesn't have to be all that. If the O-line can clear a hole, any reasonably quick player can get through it. Passing game: The passing game starts with the O-line. They block and keep the QB upright. No protection equals no time, which equals bad plays. Rarely does a defensive back make an exceptional play on the ball. 9 times out 10 it's a mis throw by the QB. And the cause of that is usually bad protection. Take Tom Brady for example. Teams have learnt that dropping guys off into coverage rarely stops 'Tom Terrific' for very long. Eventually he will find holes. What they have learnt is that by rushing him hard and getting the blitz going they can force him to make quick decisions, and even Tom Brady isn't unflappable. Even he makes mistakes under pressure. Nearly all humans do. So much of Brady's success lies in the hands of his guys up front. And it's the same for almost all QB's. Now granted there is only so much they can do. If you hold the ball forever then eventually the protection will break down (just ask Aaron Rodgers), but a good O-line provides the extra fractions of a second and the extra comfort that is required for a great passing play to develop properly. Without a good O-line, a good quarterback is nothing more than a target (David Garrard at the Jaguars). Highly paid receivers will do nothing more than run endlessly downfield only to look back and see their leader crushed beneath a pile of opposition jerseys. The O-line creates the time and space, the O-line makes it happen. Defense: As I said earlier, it's uncommon for interceptions to be made due to awesome defensive play. It happens, but mostly they seem to result from bad plays by the QB. Under thrown passes, passes into closed throwing lanes, that kind of stuff. The biggest cause of that is defensive pressure, generated by D-linemen. They sack QBs, stuff runs and force bad throws. In short, everything. A tough Defensive line can shed blocks and close down an oppositions run game. Or they can consume offensive linemen, push them around to close holes and open up areas for the linebackers to get free attacks downhill on the running back. In the pass game they generate pressure off the edge and up the middle, closing the pocket around the QB, denying him the opportunity to step up and make throws. They get hands up to bat down passes. They tug the QB's jersey, strip the ball from his hand or sack the guy. They get hits before and after the throw and generally make his life uncomfortable. D-line are the beating heart of any defense. There is probably many more things that you could go into, but there's no real need. Hopefully these short passages should be enough to convince even some of the more QB friendly among you that good linemen, both offensive and defensive, are worth their weight in gold. They make everything else tick, make everyone else look better than they really are, and generally prop up their football club. Linemen, you have my respect!

Week 13 NFL picks

It's Friday Night, possibly Saturday morning, but who cares.... it's time to make my Week 13 picks!!: Eagles @ Falcons -- Oh no. I've seen chocolate barbeque's that are more reliable than these two. Much of this game hinges on the respective offenses. Namely because we know the Falcons D will give up yards on the ground and the Eagles D will chew up Falcons back up QB Chris Redman. If the Eagles run the ball with LeSean McCoy and Leonard Weaver it will ease a lot of pressure off of Donovan McNabb and open opportunities for some play action as well. If the Falcons run they can make good gains, but passing will be tricky with one of the NFL's few true ball hawks in Asante Samuel on the opposite side. Ultimately I like the Eagles in this one because I think they have a greater potential to generate explosive plays both offensively and on special teams. Eagles win. Buccaneers @ Panthers -- Don't even get me started on the Panthers (I hate the Panthers). This week I refuse to even talk about them, because no matter what I say they'll contrive a way to do the opposite. So let's just talk Buccaneers shall we? Well, the Buc's don't have a run game so that's half their offense covered. As for the other half.... it's not bad. Rookie QB Josh Freeman is showing flashes of potential and they have one of the best receiving corps in the game (hopefully in the next year or two Freeman will develop into a QB finally capable of exploiting them fully). The trouble is, they're playing against the NFL's 4th ranked pass defense. And when you're as one dimensional as the Buc's are right now, that's not good. Panthers win. (maybe I should say Buc's win, so then the Panthers will win it just to prove me wrong? A little reverse psychology.....) uh, I mean Buc's win. Yeah, definitely the Buccaneers. Rams @ Bears -- I actually have to think about this one. That speaks volumes about the Bears right now. The Rams are bad, we all know that. RB Steven Jackson is just about the only light at the end of the tunnel for them. But then, the Bears are bad too. They give up a ton of yards on the ground and Jay Cutler throws away interceptions like they were going out of fashion. My gut instinct is to say Rams purely because of the turnovers, but as bad as they are, I think the Bears will just about pull through. The result will tell us a lot about them as a team. Bears win. Lions @ Bengals -- Bengals win. Next..... no seriously, the Lions have no defense. None. The Bengals have a solid passing attack and a solid run game. It's a no brainer. Bengals win. Titans @ Colts -- Oh mamma, what a game!! The Titans are on a roll right now, but then so are the Colts. It seems that no matter what happens, Peyton Manning is able to bring his team back from the brink time and time again. There's someone else that used to do that a lot, and his name was (is) Joe Montana. The difference between the two is that Montana has more Superbowl rings than will fit on one hand (if you take into account his wedding ring) whereas Manning has just the solitary 2006 title. On the opposite sideline, Vince Young has none. And until their recent mid-season revival no-one expected the Titans to change that. This game could give us a glimpse into who will be representing the AFC in the Superbowl. If the Colts win, the Titans are unlikely to make the playoffs. If the Titans win, it's difficult to see anyone else stopping them and that includes during the playoffs. In the grand scheme of things I think the Colts have had some fortuitous play calls go in their favour that have kept crucial drives alive. I think they're a little too one dimensional and I think the Titans secondary is ready for them this time. Couple that with a varied and explosive Titans offense and we have our winner. Titans win. Texans @ Jaguars -- Ugly game. Both teams have their problems. Houston has a good offense in general but it has a tendency to blow up in their face at the most inopportune moments, while their defense lacks any real playmakers. The Jaguars have a great RB in Maurice Jones-Drew and a solid speller in Rashad Jennings, but they really love David Garrard. And that's their big problem. They're so sold on the pass happy mentality of the NFL that they can't see the damage it's doing to their ball club. Turnovers, incomplete passes, all of these are drive killers. If they get pass happy at home against the Texans then they'll lose, but I have a feeling that this week they may just try and grind it out on the ground, keep that potentially explosive Texans O of the field, and that will win them the game. Jaguars win. Broncos @ Chiefs -- Another ugly one. Credit where it's due to the Chiefs for trying to capture some of the offense flair that Head Coach Todd Haley had as the Offensive Co-ordinator of the Cardinals, but I just don't see it in this one. The Broncos don't have too much to shout about, but they have more than the Chiefs. Broncos win. Patriots @ Dolphins -- The wisdom of the world says that the Pats will come into this one looking to put the hurt on the Dolphins. Like they were supposed to do at home earlier this year? Everyone is drawing attention to the vulnerable Dolphins secondary against the Patriots big time offense, but I think we also need to look at the Pats defense for a second. It's not exactly shutting teams down is it? And we all know that the 'Phins will run the ball with Ricky Williams, don't we? You never can tell with the Dolphins. They damn well better, because I'm taking them on this one. Dolphins win. Raiders @ Steelers -- Ha! Don't get all excited about the Raiders offense over the last few weeks. I know everyone is still recoiling from the fact that the Raiders are completing more than 10 passes per game, but the Steelers might just return things to the Status Quo. Expect a healthy dose of blitzing to put Gradkowski under pressure. The Steelers may or may not get Ben Roethlisberger back this week, but it matters little. Their ground game should be enough to see this one out. Steelers win. Saints @ Redskins -- Uh oh, it's the Saints in a very much losable(?) game again. They're probably still on a high after beating the Patriots on Monday and this week they face the NFL's number one ranked pass defense. I cannot begin to tell you how tempted I am to take the Redskins. It's like an itch that just has to be scratched. But this one will be left un-scratched. 'Cos the Saints are gonna clean up. The Redskins just don't have enough offense to compete. They struggle to score 20 points on a consistent basis and even a restricted Saints team should be able to put that on the board. One offensive turnover for the Redskins and they're done for. Saints win. Chargers @ Browns -- Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Shawn Merriman & Antonio Cromartie vs Jamal Lewis, Josh Cribbs, ......... and that's it. This is mismatch city and the Browns are on the bad end of it. Chargers win. Cowboys @ Giants -- The Giants are reportedly shaking up their defensive line by pushing Osi Umenyiora and Fred Robbins to the practice squad, while promoting Mathias Kiwanuka and Chris Canty to starters for the divisional game against the Cowboys. I think it's gonna take more than that to save them. The Cowboys are trying to find themselves this December. After years of mediocrity they are determined to succeed this time round. And owner Jerry Jones has wisely instructed his coaches that Felix Jones is to help lead the way. And lead he will. Jones, (the RB, not the owner) displays vision, strength, agility, balance and speed in equal measure. And the Cowboys are starting to realise that the best way to stop Tony Romo from screwing up their playoff hopes is to take the ball out of his hands more often and run it a little more. A lesson the Giants sorely need to learn for next season. Cowboys win. 49ers @ Seahawks -- It's about time my 49ers got a win and a game against Seattle is just what the doctor ordered. Even though they've abandoned their running game, the 49ers have a sufficiently competent passing attack to exploit the Seahawks woeful secondary. Meanwhile, the Seahawks tend to struggle unless they can get their run game going and against the 49ers that will prove difficult. 49ers win. Vikings @ Cardinals -- With concussions the new hot topic in the NFL, there are doubts as to whether the Cardinals will start QB Kurt Warner. No doubts in the Vikings camp about starting Brett Favre. Favre is on fire right now and his receivers are reaping the rewards. Adrian Peterson is still burning people for big runs when they try and sit back and play coverage to nulify Favre, and DE Jared Allen is leading the Vikings D on regular pillages into opposition backfields. All in all, the situation looks grim for a Cardinals team that has bizarrely struggled at home. Their rushing attack is finding it's feet, but that may not be enough to stop The Purple People Eaters this week. Vikings win. Ravens @ Packers -- Fresh off a win against the reigning Superbowl champions, the Ravens will come into this game with a spring in their step. But they'll need more than a spring to help them leap over the Green Bay Packers. The Packers offense is clicking nicely of late. Aaron Rodgers has finally learned that he's to blame for the fact that he spent so much time on the ground earlier in the season. He's finding his receivers and the Packers O benefits all round from that. Teams fear the pass and as they back off into cover, it opens lanes for RB Ryan Grant. What's more, the Packers D has suddenly coughed and choked into life in the last few weeks. Charles Woodson is greedily chalking up numbers all over his stat sheet and may have another big game against the free falling 'air Flacco'. Ray Rice is the still the Ravens best bet for generating some significant offense, but if the Ravens fall behind they will struggle to get back in it. Packers win. Right my Lords and Ladies, that's my picks for the week. Don't forget I'm already 0-1 this week thanks to the lacklustre Bills. Tomorrow I'm going to try and convince you that Linemen should earn more than Quarterbacks.......

Thursday Night recap

It's Thursday night which means, uhm, Thursday Night Football recap? Yeah!! Jets 19 @ Bills 13 -- God almighty I bet the fans couldn't wait for this one to finish. And while I think about it, and by 'it' I mean the word 'fans', this game was supposed to be a Bills home game. Yet the noise level suggested this was being played in the Meadowlands. It's odd because I read an article just the other day by a Bills fan that mentioned the lack of enthusiasm for the games played in Toronto. Anyway, back to the game and in true fashion for my picks, a team that I said would do one thing in fact did another. Just 15 passes from Sanchez before he limped off with an injury during the third quarter. Everyone is hailing it as terrible news, but I think it might actually be the best news Jets fans have heard all season and might even spark a late run at a Wildcard spot. As I feared, the Jets rushing attack blasted the Bills typically appalling run defense off the face of the Earth, clocking up 249 yards. But before Bills fans bemoan their defense too heavily, it's worth noting that the Bills offense were even worse. 9/23 for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Yeah, some of that has to do with the quality play of Jets CB Darrelle Revis who was assigned to shut down Terrell Owens (targeted 9 times, caught 3), but Lee Evans didn't exactly bolster his case for being the number 1 guy (targeted 7 times, caught 1). Granted, some of that just has to do with bad throwing. But the most cardinal sin for me; bad running. Just 19 carries between Jackson and Lynch, with Jackson taking 13. Now this surprised me. Yesterday I said Fred Jackson was better and I think all things considered, he is. But Lynch was obviously having a good game. He looked fired up, motivated, ready to try and win back his job. He busted out a 35 yard run in the 2nd quarter, then came right back on the next play and scored a TD. Then after that, just 1 more carry. I mean, are you kidding me? You run 35 yards then score a 15 yard TD on the next play, and your reward is to get just one extra carry? No wonder the Bills are in trouble. And more to the point, they've already cost me a pick. So there we have it, 0-1 already. With a busy weekend of action ahead there's always plenty of games to pick things up and get back in it. Tomorrow night I'll let you know who I'm backing.

Week 13 Thursday Night pick

It's Wednesday night, which can only mean one thing. Err, Thursday Night Football!!! Well, my Thursday night pick at least: Jets @ Bills -- This, for me, is a trap game. A lot depends on the approach that one team takes to this contest. Last time they played, the Jets tore a huge, gaping, massive hole through the Bills D. But they lost the game because they tried to be clever and throw it despite their obvious dominance on the ground (more on that later). The result was Mark Sanchez offering picks all over the place which the Bills secondary, and in particular safety Jairus Byrd, gobbled up. So the question is thus; can the Jets keep Sanchez's throwing to a minimum and let Thomas Jones and Shonne Greene tear the Bills a new one? Honestly, I don't see them doing it. They love the thought of the "Sanchise" way too much. That, coupled with the Bills offensive resurgence of late (getting the ball to Terrell Owens and realising that Fred Jackson is better than Marshawn Lynch) combines to give the Bills the win. I think. I hope. Bills win. And now from Buffalo to the global ether that is the Internet, and more specifically, to NFL.com. Senior analyst Pat Kirwan recently wrote an article (if your quick, it may still be on the front page) claiming that the end of "run the football and play great defense" may be at hand, and that the NFL is about to become a must-pass-first league. This nearly knocked me out of my chair. Either one of three things has happened here: a) A perfectly sane and normally excellent analyst was drugged, and in his pharmopsychologically (???) induced state, he temporarily went insane and wrote this article, or b) He was held at gun point by officials from the pass happy NFL who forced him to write the article, as they would love nothing more than (and have tried relentlessly) to see the NFL become a slightly more expensive version of flag football, or c) He actually meant it. My money is on a sort of bizarre combination of the first two. It has to be. No right minded, football loving (and football knowledgeable) individual would surely claim that if teams want to win the Superbowl these days, then they must abandon the concept of the run and solid defense, and instead kit themselves out with a first class passing attack. It makes no sense. Let's look at some opposite sides of the coin shall we? First, the top five teams for passing yards per game. These are, from top to bottom; Colts, Patriots, Texans, Saints, Cardinals. The Colts are undoubtedly the leagues leaders in passing. Peyton Manning leads a pass heavy attack that often functions like a well oiled machine. The Colts are also unbeaten. But they do have a tendency to fall behind until late in the game. The have a tendency to win games by the smallest of margins. They have a tendency to be otherwise out of a game until a handy flag appears (more on that later). And they are really only doing so well because this year their defense has played out of it's skin. Compare the Colts with the Patriots. The Pats put 59 on the board against the Titans which is the highest points tally scored by a single team, in one game, this season. There is no question that at times, Brady and his trusty receivers can make NFL defenses look average. But the Patriots defense has often come up short this season and subsequently the team as a whole has suffered. For a comparison, look no further than the Texans. Admittedly they've had some woes in the kicking game, but by and large, their very aggressive and competent pass offense has been unable to cover for the sore lack of talent on their defense. A problem the Saints have not had this season. Last season they did. The Saints still had an explosive passing attack. They lead the league in both passing and scoring. Drew Brees nearly cracked Dan Marinos record for passing yards in a single season. But ultimately the Saints finished 8-8 and bottom of the NFC South. The difference this year has been down to three things; a better running game, a much improved defense, and some lucky games where teams handed them the win. There is no glossing over that. Their high octane offense is not the reason they are undefeated. It's the more mundane "run the ball and play great defense" aspects that have turned them around. Sentiments shared by the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards made it to the Superbowl last year. They got a huge helping hand by virtue of playing in the NFC West, a virtue that has served them well again this season. They got a another helping hand in the playoffs courtesy of the Carolina Panthers (I hate the Panthers) who tried to play them at their own game and ended up turning the ball over 6 times from the QB position. This year the Cardinals were having problems again. Enter Chris 'Beanie' Wells and Tim Hightower, who have breathed life into an otherwise lacklustre rushing attack, helped in no small part by their Head Coach's desire to run the ball more. Still, the outlook for the Cards' this season is a little gray. Compare now if you will the other end of the spectrum, by looking at the top five teams for rushing yardage per game. These are, from top to bottom; Titans, Jets, Dolphins, Panthers, Saints. The Saints we've already covered and so need not trouble ourselves with again. But the other four teams have an interesting story to tell. Other than their high rushing yardage, they all share one bizarre trait in common. They throw the ball too much. Yes, too much. At the start of the season the Titans went with QB Kerry Collins. For some as yet unknown reason they decided that Collins would be their savior. Despite going 13-3, including a ten game winning streak the previous season, they largely abandoned their rushing attack and instead tried to get creative through the air. The end result was 8 interceptions and just a 54% completion rate in 6 games. Then they switched to Vince Young and started to focus more on their league leading rushing attack and now, surprise, surprise, they've won 5 on the trot. The story is familiar to all the four teams we're looking at now, not least the Jets. So far, Mark Sanchez has managed to clock up no less than 17 interceptions for the New Yorkers. It seems that no matter how hard Thomas Jones and Shonne Greene work on the ground, they can always rely on their QB to give the opposition a chance to get back into the game. Against the Bills in Week 6 the Jets ran the ball 40 times and clocked up 318 net yards rushing. That's about comparable with a lot of good QBs total yardage after throwing 40 times. But alas for the Jets, 30 pass attempts yielded just 96 net yards passing (when you take into account sacks) and a combined 6 interceptions (5 by Sanchez). Had they continued to run the ball more in a game which they were dominating on the ground, they would have firmly put the Bills in their place. The Dolphins can sympathise with this. When they met the New Orleans Saints in Week 7 (supposedly the best team in the NFL right now) they got off to a flying start. With the clock ticking away at the end of the first half, they lead 24-3. Thanks to a dumb timeout call they ended up going in leading just 24-10 instead of 24-6. And from there, things began to unravel. Chad Henne completed just 18/36 passes in the whole game and threw two interceptions in the second half, both returned for touchdowns. Miami abandoned it's run game for much of the second half and were brutally punished as a result. This is just one of many incidents where Miami has wandered from it's strengths and shot itself in the foot. But the true masters of this are the Carolina Panthers. They literally are the undisputed champions of throwing more than is healthy for them. Just look at QB Jake Delhomme. 18 interceptions. Only Jay Cutler has thrown more. But at least the Bears have an excuse. They have no run game to speak of (which is not Matt Forte's fault). The Panthers have DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, arguably the best running back tandem in the entire NFL. They have no excuse for throwing the ball as much as they do. And it's cost them games. Last year it cost them their place in the playoffs. Had they not blown it so fantastically against the Cardinals, they had a good shout at going all the way. Passing didn't help them win a Superbowl, it hindered them. All in all, the point I'm trying to make is that 'running the football and playing great defense', as a concept, is far from dead. Passing first and building your team around an explosive pass attack is not the way to win the Superbowl. Those that believe it will are headed for a serious head on collision with reality. And what makes this more frustrating is that I recently read on a college/high school coaches Internet forum that they are all expecting teams in the next five years to become much more run orientated to combat 'pass orientated defenses'. They profess that the cat and mouse game of offense/defense will cycle around and that power football will become en vogue once more. They believe they have wisely forseen the future of football by predicting this trend. No doubt they will smugly laugh and pat each other on the back, and claim that they all ought to be NFL coaches. The stark reality is that running the football has never been ineffective. There are ineffective ways of rushing and there are ineffective players in many rushing attacks (cough *Bears*), but running the football as a concept is perfectly sound, even now. It has nothing to do with 'pass orientated defenses' and everything to do with being solid, fundamental football. (I should just point out that the same coaching forum never hesitates to expound the virtues of the passing game and in particular the 'Spread'; the very thing that is sinking so many pro teams). And on one final note, I'd like to draw your attention to the Indianapolis Colts and their seemingly endless stream of pass interference calls. Now it's a given that a team that passes a lot is more likely to encounter a greater number of pass interference flags. They are simply presenting more opportunities for their receivers to be fouled. But you have to draw the line somewhere. The call they got on Sunday against the Texans was ludicrous. If it wasn't for a flag, the Colts game against the Patriots would likely have ended in a markedly different manner. Why is this of any significance? Like the Saints, it shows that luck has had no small part to play in their undefeated season so far, and it should serve as a caution to those who would tag them as 'the best team in the NFL'. Right, that's all for today. Tomorrow I'll be recapping the Jets/Bills game, Friday will bring my picks for the all the weekends NFL action, and on Saturday I'll try and convince you that the most important players on any team are the linemen....... And as always, if you're reading the blog and you like it, feel free to: a) use the feedback boxes at the bottom of the post, b) leave a comment, c) spread the word, Wherever you're and whatever you're doing (providing it's legal), have a good day.

Week 12, Extra Credit

Ok, so it's time for Week 12 Extra Credit. Also, just to point out that picks wise I'm now 57-30 since I started in week 7, which equals out at just over a 65% success rate, which isn't too shabby. It would be more if a) I didn't keep picking against the Saints, b) the Dolphins would stop trying to throw the ball and c) The Panthers would just do as they're darn well told. I hate the Panthers. Lets get going: Charles Woodson (Packers) -- 6 tackles, an assist, a sack, 2 interceptions and a forced fumble. I hear he also bakes a nice cake. Aaron Rodgers (Packers) -- Only sacked once. That's really good from his perspective. Bruce Gradkowski (Raiders) -- Who else in this league could complete just 18/35 passes and still be hailed as a big improvement? Felix Jones, Tashard Choice and Marion Barber (Cowboys) -- Proving that they will be the key to the Cowboys success or failure this year. Miles Austin (Cowboys) -- 7 catches for 145 yards and TD. Showing who's really the number 1 receiver in Dallas. Eli Manning (Giants) -- 24/40, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception. This is pretty much a weekly occurrence, yet somehow still manages to reduce Brandon Jacobs to just 11 carries. He must have the gift of the gab. Brandon Marshall (Broncos) -- Not one, but two, one handed catches in one game. Nice. Brian Dawkins (Broncos) -- 8 tackles and a forced fumble. The Eagles must have been nuts to let this guy go. Chris Redman (Falcons) -- Journeyman Redman popped up again to fill in for Matt Ryan and clocked 23/41 for 243 yards and 2 TDs with no pick. Barrett Ruud (Buccaneers) -- 9 tackles, 2 assists and a forced fumble. That's about as good as you're going to get from the Buc's D this year. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Bills) -- 17/26, 246 yards and a TD, plus 50 yards on the ground as well. Someone is after a long term starting job. Yeremiah Bell (Dolphins) -- 8 tackles, 5 assists, and an interception. To think that all that good work was wasted by his offense.... Jason Avant (Eagles) -- Has been largely shunned in favour of younger weapons, but came up big in this one with 5 really tough catches for 94 yards. London Fletcher (Redskins) -- Is making a habit of appearing on this list with 11 tackles, an assist and a sack. One good reason why the Redskins D does as well as it has been. Justin Forsett (Seahawks) -- 22 carries, 130 yards and 2 TDs. Making an argument for Seattle to throw the ball less. Jordan Babineaux (Seahawks) -- 12 tackles, 1 assist and an INT. Even against the Rams that's still worth a mention. James Laurinaitis (Rams) -- 9 tackles and a sack for the rookie. Maybe there's hope for the Rams yet............... na. Mark Sanchez (Jets) -- What? Only throwing one pick is good by his usual standards.... Jake Delhomme (Panthers) -- Threw 4 interceptions. That's down one from his playoff game against the Cardinals last year. Also did the Panthers a favour and dislocated a finger. Jon Beason (Panthers) -- 11 tackles and 6 assists. Someone either wants a pay rise or just really loves hitting things. Maybe a bit of both. Bengals Offensive Line (Bengals) -- Proved they can make any running back look good. Kris Brown (Texans) -- Actually remembered to kick the ball between the posts this time. Twice. LaDainian Tomlinson (Chargers) -- Other than having one of the most inconvenient names to spell correctly, (up there with Visanthe Shiancoe) he clocked another 2 TDs in the Redzone to add to his all time list. This is important because Norv Turners offense's have always been criticised for a lack of red zone punch. This one has plenty. Antonio Gates (Chargers) -- 7 catches, 118 yards and 2 TDs. Up there with Visanthe Shiancoe and Vernon Davis as trail blazers from the TE position this season. David Garrard (Jaguars) -- Managed to confine Maurice Jones-Drew to just 15 carries. There has to be something special about you to do that, right? Must be slipping the same potion into his coaches coffee as Eli Manning and Jake Delhomme. Jay Cutler (Bears) -- 18/23 and only 2 interceptions. That's probably the best Cutlers been all year.... Brett Favre (Vikings) -- How can you throw 48 passes and yet not throw at least one pick? And 32 completions? I'm beginning to think the real Brett Favre is hiding at his home in the South while a NASA robot version of Favre is tested out for the Vikings. Vince Young (Titans) -- The big question has always been, can he carry the Titans on his back? Yes he can. Darnell Dockett (Cardinals) -- 4 tackles, 2 assists, 3 sacks, and the craziest hair in football. Dennis Dixon (Steelers) -- Manfully tried to take on the Ravens. Shame he wasn't rewarded. Great TD run. Lawrence Timmons, James Farrior and LaMarr Woodley (Steelers) -- Combined for 17 tackles, 4 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. Don't count the Steelers out of the playoffs yet. Drew Brees (Saints) -- Only threw 23 passes but completed 18 and clocked 371 yards and 5 TDs. Either he's in a class of his own or the Patriots D was just that bad. Probably a mixture of the two. Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem (Saints) -- We talk about all the offensive weapons that New Orleans has in the pass game, but these guys are the main targets. Combined for 12 catches, 306 yards and 3 TDs. Saints Offensive Line (Saints) -- Don't get any credit, but they've given up the third fewest sacks (14) and the third fewest QB hits (35) in the league. It's about time they got some credit, so here it is guys. Leigh Bodden (Patriots) -- Just purely because I mis-labelled him as a linebacker the other day. This is my apology. Right, that's that for tonight. Tomorrow night it'll be pick time ahead of Thursday Night football. I think I used the word 'night' enough in the last two sentences. Goodnight!

Monday Night Football

With the Monday Night Game done, it's time to look at how I got on with my final pick of the week: Patriots 17 @ Saints 38 -- Trust the Patriots to mash up my final pick. And listen, no I'm not about to bow before the mighty Saints and say "hey, they're the best". Yeah, they beat the Pats, but go back and watch the game film. I don't know what Pats team was out there in New Orleans, but it wasn't the one any of us would recognise. Take Tom Brady for example. 21/36, 237 yards, no TD's and 2 INT's. For Brady that's really bad. But the worst offenders were the Pats defense. Devery Henderson looked like he was going to fall over in shock during the second quarter as he was left so open it was unreal. I don't think blown coverage really does it justice. I dunno, I'm just speechless. Now I know I bang on with the hate against the Saints each week, but trust me, there is a point. I know Drew Brees is one of the premier QB's in the league. He is easily one of the top three, along with Peyton Manning and Brett Favre. As a team, the Saints have done really well in all three phases of the game. But the response to all this has been symptomatic of NFL analysis over the last 10 years or so. The Saints are being hailed as the greatest team in football right now, when they're simply not. It's another case of the over hype that is rife among sports broadcasters. Let's look at it realistically. The Saints division has been woeful this year, contributing to easy wins. The Dolphins practically gave the game back to New Orleans after destroying them in the first half. And now this result which will again overly inflate the reputation of the Saints, despite the Patriots being dire. The biggest and best example of this over hype is Darren Sharper. After his late pick, the defensive players were fanning him and treating him like a hero. That's understandable. They're his team mates and they are joking around. But by tomorrow all the sports broadcasters across the land will be kneeling at Sharpers feet, heralding him for what was essentially just being too slow and lazy to keep up with the play, which left him short when Brady's pass didn't make it. He got lucky, again, and now he's going to be proclaimed as some kind of defensive wizard. God it makes me sick just thinking about it. And probably the worst bit about all this is that the Patriots previously mentioned appalling D will go quietly un-noticed. This whole debacle will be put down to how great the Saints were, blah, blah. But the fact is that on Saturday I made a point about the Saints O. I mentioned that they get most of their big gains and scores going down the middle. I was expecting the normally excellently coached Patriots to see it and shut it down. They didn't. Big time. Just watch the game film. The Pats let Brees and his receivers have the middle all to themselves. They didn't bring enough pressure right up the A gap to force Brees to move either. It just sucked as a defensive performance. And this is what I love about football. Every week certain match ups favour certain teams, and every week pundits will hype the crap out of people that don't warrant it. And the most bizarre thing about this is the unlikely candidates who have the best shot of beating the Saints should they face them. Namely, the Steelers, the Ravens, the Cowboys and the Eagles. None of these teams has exactly lit up the world this season. But all of these teams would have a good shot of beating the Saints (The Cowboys actually get a chance in week 15). Why? 'Cos they all bring great pressure right up the middle. Take the Cowboys for example. They are hardly over flowing with defensive talent, but Jay Ratliff should get in the face of Drew Brees when they meet, and push Brees out of the pocket. Coupled with the potential of their ground game should they chose to use it (which knowing my luck they wont), they have a real chance of chewing the clock, stopping the Saints ground game and forcing Brees to get mobile and try and win games throwing 40 times, which simply wont work. Ahh, that feels better now I've ranted off on one. Tomorrow; Extra Credit.

Week 12 NFL results and recap.

With all of today's games now done, it's time to recap all the Sunday action from Week 12 of the NFL: Buccaneers 17 @ Falcons 20 -- The injury to Matt Ryan had Falcons fans holding their collective breath. As Chris Redman stepped onto the field, naturally everyone was a little nervous. But fear not as he threw 23/41, for 243 yards and 2 TD's. Not bad. If the Falcons can just remember that they have three good backs to play with then maybe they will recover some semblance of pride from an otherwise under par season. The Buccaneers just looked like, well the Buccaneers. Dolphins 14 @ Bills 31 -- Yesterday when I made my pick I was worried that the Dolphins might turn into the Panthers (I hate the Panthers) and try to throw to win. I was confident however that they would realise the Bills have the worse rush defense in all of football and that throwing the ball with essentially a rookie QB against dangerous safety Jairus Byrd would be stupid!! Unfortunately, I was wrong, as Chad Henne's 31 pass attempts and three interceptions prove. The Dolphins did run it 27 times with Ricky Williams (who added another pick on a Wildcat play) but for some reason didn't think to make more use of Lex Hilliard or Pat White. Meanwhile the star of the show was Ryan Fitzpatrick. His 246 yards with a TD didn't stun, but his 7 carries for 50 yards and a TD helped keep the Bills ticking. Redskins 24 @ Eagles 27 -- The Eagles found their run game again while the Redskins lost theirs. Again. Couple that with big plays in the passing game and some superb ball hawking by Asante Samuel and you have a recipe for an Eagles win. They'll probably be a bit worried about having to constantly fight from behind though. Seahawks 27 @ Rams 17 -- Justin Forsett continues to impress for the Seahawks and amazingly won the battle of the running backs, even though Steven Jackson was on the other side. The fact that the Seahawks contained Jackson to 89 yards off 23 carries is probably the most miraculous thing about this game. Panthers 6 @ Jets 17 -- At times like this, I'm reminded of the scene in the film "Speed" when Dennis Hoppers' character says to that piece of wood, sorry, Keanu Reeves, "You think you're so smart huh Jack?". It's like he was saying that to me personally, after I claimed yesterday that the Panthers would stick to their normal tradition of being run heavy one week and pass heavy the next. This week they were due to be run heavy and win. But they craftily tried to break the trend and be pass heavy.... and threw 4 picks and lost. 34 passes against a mere 25 runs. Honestly, it's like they conspire deliberately to screw up my picks. Worse, the Jets did the opposite. Normally they are so excited about Mark Sanchez that they abandon their rushing attack too and end up throwing picks a plenty. But instead they threw just 18 times against 39 rushes. I think they were colluding with the Panthers to do me over. I hate the Panthers. Browns 7 @ Bengals 16 -- Brady Quinn went aerial this week... and completed just 15/34 for a nice, round 100 yards. At least he didn't get picked off this week. Carson Palmer meanwhile continues to slump a little, completing just 13/24 for 10 more yards than Quinn and a TD. The big story was the Bengals rushing attack. Bernard Scott chalked up 18 carries for 87 yards and Larry Johnson notched 107 yards off 22 carries. Proof that the Bengals O-line can make anyone look good. Colts 35 @ Texans 27 -- Honestly, it wouldn't be the 2009 Colts unless they waited till the last quarter to pull out a win. Both QB's were razor sharp in their accuracy and the Texans can take a lot of promising things out of this game. Sadly a W isn't one of them. With the Jaguars losing to the 49ers this win wraps up the AFC South for the Colts. Chiefs 14 @ Chargers 43 -- The Chargers went mental again by rushing the ball with 8 different people. The only person that mattered though was LaDainian Tomlinson, who clocked up another 2 touchdowns on his all time tally. Add another two through the air courtesy of Philip Rivers to Antonio Gates and you have a rout. The Chiefs look like their offense is finally ready to come off life support and start breathing for itself..... but they need to draft big on defense next year or they'll be spending another season in the morgue. Jaguars 3 @ 49ers 20 -- There is a golden rule in San Francisco. That rule is to only win when I pick them to get beaten badly. The Jaguars hardly helped me out, determined to each week give Rashad Jennings his mandatory two carries and nothing more, while confining Maurice Jones-Drew to just 15 carries (which he converted into 75 yards). David Garrard didn't do too bad passing (25/36, 307 yards) but he failed to find the end zone even once, which.... is kinda bad. Alex Smith found it twice however. But still, he threw the ball 41 times and hit just 27, for 232 yards. It took most of the game to pass before they decided to give Frank Gore anymore than just 10 carries, finally finishing with 16. This is a RB who not long ago ran for over 1,600 yards in one season. As good as the progress of Smith, Crabtree, Davis and Walker has been, the 49ers key weapon is being discarded by the wayside. I'd want out if I was him. Bears 10 @ Vikings 36 -- If it wasn't for the 1 in their loss column, the Vikings would be the front runners to win the big prize. It's that simple. And in my opinion, they are. Favre is almost flawless these days. The weapons he has around him are stunning. And their defense is more than a match for most offenses these days. Contrast that with the Bears. Cutler hands out interceptions like confetti, has few real tools to work with, no run game for support, and the Bears defense couldn't stop a 3 year old from rushing for 100 yards against them. It really was a game of opposites. Cardinals 17 @ Titans 20 -- The big concern for the Titans recently has been whether Vince Young can grab his team by the horns and drag it kicking and screaming across the finish line. Not just managing a game, but taking it over. Today, that question was answered. 27/43, 387 yards and a TD. Most importantly, the TD came right at the death, boosting Youngs clutch credentials. After the score the whole team was celebrating with each other, congratulating themselves on a hard won victory. The team spirit and camaraderie they displayed gives you a glimpse into why they are now 5-6 and possibly a glimpse into why they may finish the regular season 10-6. With Chris Johnson chalking up 154 yards and a TD on the ground as well, that's a mean looking offense to compliment a mean looking defense. If not this year, then next....... Steelers 17 @ Ravens 20 -- The Steelers and the Ravens went toe to toe in a physical, grind it out type of defensive contest that I just loved every minute of. They were determined to copy the above score though, even to the extent of taking it to overtime. And while I picked the Steelers to win I'm comforted by the fact that they nearly did even without 'Big Ben', and that my analysis of the Ravens was spot on. They just can't generate any meaningful offense lately. Every now and again they'll spontaneously explode with a big play, but most of the time they just tick along, chugging and choking like a battered old Ford. The Steelers have issues without Roethlisberger. Dennis Dixon was ok, he even made some good runs (one for a TD, one hauled back for a penalty). Ultimately though, either he or the coaching staff were nervous about him drop back passing. The almost complete lack of a pass threat and the under utilisation of play-action meant the Ravens could stack up heavy on the run without too much fear of getting torched. They were right. So, that's all the games covered until the Patriots play (read: beat) the Saints. Including the games from Thursday, I'm 10-5 this week for picks. Here's hoping the Pats will make it 11.

Week 12 NFL picks

So here we are, as promised, with my Week 12 NFL picks: Buccaneers@ Falcons: Even without Michael Turner, I still like the Falcons in this one. The Buc's may next year be a very good passing team. Their trouble is that their QB is still learning and they have no ground game to ease the pressure. Not expecting this to be a blowout, but it might be a more comfortable victory than the Falcons have been used to this season. Falcons win. Dolphins@ Bills: Mismatch time, i.e. the Dolphins rushing attack versus the Bills rush defense. I think Ricky Williams is more than the Bills can handle. But then, I often say the same thing about DeAngelo Williams of the Panthers and yet they'll come right back and throw the ball all game (I hate them Panthers). Unfortunately the Dolphins have a habit of doing the same. It was this approach that cost them the game against the Saints and this time it could cost them heavily again, as Bills safety Jarius Byrd leads the league in interceptions. Still, Buffalo has struggled to generate anything close to resembling an effective offense and against the Dolphins, I expect that to continue. Dolphins win. Redskins@ Eagles: Ugh, always a tricky picky. The thing with the Eagles is that one week they come out and toast a team for 400+ yards. Next week they'll come out and struggle to get a first down. Combine this with their suspect redzone offense and you have a recipe for disaster. Combine it with the Redskins highly rated pass defense and things begin to take an apocalyptic turn. But then you know, you just know that the Redskins offense will let you down if you take them. I'm going with the Eagles, but it wouldn't come as a shock if they rack up a ton of yards through the air and yet just a field goal or something stupid like that. Eagles win. Seahawks@ Rams: I flipped a coin and it came out Seahawks. In all seriousness both team are bad, but the Rams are just slightly worse overall. Seahawks win. Panthers@ Jets: Every week the Panthers conspire and scheme and machinate and use any other adjective that describes under handed tactics, in order to ruin my picks. Well this week I've got them in a bind. Every week they do the opposite of what I say. When I say they'll run, they pass. When I say they're just gonna pass all game, they run (I hate the Panthers). Last week they passed it up. That means this week they'll run it all over the Jets. And so this week I'm backing them to run the ball and win the game. That, and I think Mark Sanchez will throw 4 or 5 more picks. Panthers win. Browns@ Bengals: Ha ha, Bengals win. Colts@ Texans: This one is tough to choose. I Know the Colts are undefeated and they've played really well so far, but every week they just seem to scrape past people. As odd as this may sound, I think their offense doesn't do enough to help a great D. Yeah, Peyton Manning, who everyone is calling to be the MVP this season (don't get me started on the MVP award), doesn't produce enough offense. They just can't seem to clock up enough points. And for that reason, I'm putting my head on the block and backing...... the Colts. I just don't think the Texans have enough to overcome the boys from Indy. Colts win. Chiefs@ Chargers: Chargers win. San Diego is flying lately. The Chiefs are sort of ambling along, just starting to find their feet now Larry Johnson is gone. Neither team astounds on defense, but the Chargers have the punch to outscore their opponents in this one. Chargers win. Jaguars@ 49'ers: Oh boy, my boys in San Francisco have a tough test in hand. Both teams can run the ball, both teams can pass it. Trouble is, San Fran practically refuses to run the ball this year. And unfortunately, the better WR Michael Crabtree gets, the less inclined the 49'ers are to run. So, all things considered, I think the Jaguars get this. Jaguars win. Bears@ Vikings: The latest injury updates put Vikings RB Adrian Peterson as being questionable. Even that wont stop the men in purple from prevailing this weekend. The Bears rely on Jay Cutler to win games for them. With Jared Allen tearing off the edge, that doesn't bode well for Chicago. Brett Favre should have no trouble cutting up the Bears secondary and even if Peterson doesn't play, Chester Taylor is an adequate backup. Vikings win. Cardinals@ Titans: Question marks hang over Card's QB Kurt Warner. Even if he plays though, I think the Titans take this. Their ground game has taken things to the next level recently and their pass defense will be salivating at the prospect of a Cardinals team that will likely throw the ball 80% of the time. Titans win. Steelers@ Ravens: Ben Roethlisberger is the latest of a number of important players who may not see much, if any action on Sunday. Still, the Ravens offense that was so highly praised at the start of the season has withered and disappeared of late. The Steelers without 'Big' Ben should still be able to run the ball effectively with a three headed monster of Parker, Moore and Mendenhall. "Should" being the operative word. Whether they will or not is a different matter. I think they will. I hope they will. Steelers win. Patriots@ Saints: Big time test for the Saints. Apparently they're been moaning that some people still don't take them seriously. That might have something to do with the fact that they keep barely scraping past average teams. Several opponents have done themselves out of wins over the Saints through suspicious play calling. The reason I, like many people, still don't rate the Saints is because they've not really been tested by a solid team with excellent coaching staff. Well now the wait is over. And the Saints hit it at a bad time, as CB's Jabari Greer and Tracey Porter are still out (to my knowledge). Expect Welker to have another big day as the Pats try and keep Drew Brees off the field. And with Brees's tendency to look for completions over the middle of the field, expect the well organised Pats to have that scouted and for LB Leigh Bodden to have another week of filling his pockets with picks. Patriots win. So there we have it. Another week of educated (sort of) guesses and hopefully another week of wins. I'm already 2-1 this week after Thursday Night Football, so fingers crossed for another big showing. And as always, if you're enjoying what you read, feel free to share the knowledge with as many people as you can. The more the merrier.

Week 12 NFL picks

So I was supposed to do my picks as normal yesterday, but I was interrupted by a bizarre incident involving a loft, a huge sheet of plastic and some nails. Picks will follow shortly though. Promise.