And I'm taking...
- Dallas over Tampa Bay, because the Buccaneers are truly horrid at the moment. That's not to say the Cowboys are kicking butt, but they're a better team at least on paper.
- Miami over Buffalo, because despite being a little banged up, Miami should have enough to overcome the stumbling Bills.
- Seahawks over Bears, which was a hard one to bring myself to pick, but the fact is that a Forte and Cutler less Bears are even worse than the Seahawks.
- Texans over the Panthers, because the Texans still have a defense capable of keeping them in a game, unlike Carolina.
- Titans over Colts. Just... you know why.
- Packers over Chiefs. See above.
- Saints over Vikings. The Vikings secondary against the Saints passing attack is a horrendous mismatch.
- Giants over Redskins, because I think the Giants have been unlucky at times and still pack a mean punch.
- Bengals over Rams, because it's the Rams.
- Lions over Raiders, because the Raiders injury list could be practically overlayed on their roster and you wouldn't be able to tell the difference.
- Cardinals over Browns, because the Cardinals have been surprisingly good lately and the Browns... well they're the Browns.
- Patriots over Broncos, because as much as I love Tebow and the Broncos, they surely can't beat the Patriots. Can they? No way...
- Eagles over Jets, because if the Eagles are going to win another game this year then this basically is their best shot.
- Ravens over Chargers, because the Ravens are less likely to kill themselves in this one, though doubtless they'll give it a damn good shot.
- Steelers over 49ers, because I'm a 49ers fan and even I have to admit, with a heavy heart, that our team has basically bullshitted it's way to a 10-3 record.
So that's my Week 15 picks. I can't believe we only have three weekends of regular season football left. Where does all the time go? Anyway, two things on my schedule for the coming week. I want to look at the three step drop in a little more detail and also take a look at the potential free agent market for 2012. Not necessarily in that order.
And as Christmas approaches I think you should embrace the Christmas spirit (put that vodka down, that's not what I meant) and give an early gift to someone. Namely the URL to my blog...
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Todd Haley, Ricky Stanzi, the deep pass and a Thursday night pick. But no Partridge in a pear tree
So this week Todd Haley was fired - somewhat out of the blue - as the Head Coach of the Kansas City Chiefs.
With Haley's departure there was a void, and that void has been filled (for now) by Romeo Crennel. One of Crennels first acts was to announce to the team and the press that the God awful Tyler Palko has been relegated down the Quarterback chart... all the way to third place. Kyle Orton will start this week, providing he's fully recovered and healthy enough to play. If not then the gauntlet will fall to Ricky Stanzi, the rookie out of Iowa.
Good.
Other than correctly predicting the round in which Stanzi would be taken, which had as much do with skill as predicting lottery numbers, I was really high on Stanzi pre-draft. At one point I had him pegged number one among the quarterbacks in the 2011 draft, but later revised that in favour of Ponder by a smidgen.
That still makes Stanzi number two though. I just really liked what I saw from Stanzi at Iowa. Some of the underneath passes were a little errant under pressure and his footwork in the pocket was sometimes a little heavy, but generally speaking he was really good. It helped that he played for a team that ran a lot, so he had plenty of play action opportunities, and also that his receivers were pretty good. But that doesn't take away from the fact that Stanzi had a great deep pass, slotting the ball in beautifully over his receivers shoulders.
That's what I'm hoping to see if the Chiefs go with Stanzi; deep passes to unlock the potential of guys like Dwayne Bowe and Jonathan Baldwin.
The deep passing game has always interested me. It's not so much the idea of making big plays that appeals, although obviously that's a big part of it! The thing that interests me the most is the genuine stretch of the defense that is achieved through throwing the ball deep.
Coaches often talk about "spreading the field" and "making the defense protect every blade of grass". But it's surprising how few teams genuinely do this. There are a lot of teams that run "spread" offenses, that force the defense to string themselves out horizontally to cover four or five wide receivers, but a lot of these teams seem to neglect the deep pass.
The threat of the 40 yard fade pass down the sideline does so much for an offense. It forces the corners to play looser, sitting back a little more in order to avoid getting blown past. It makes safeties conscious of the need to protect the deep middle of the field, making them slower to react to run plays as they understand all too well the consequences of biting on what turns out to be a play action fake.
It even affects the linebackers. Now in this regard we're talking more about the deep-in passes, breaking across the middle of the field at a 15 yard depth, but the effect is still the same. It forces them be wary of run action, in case they bite on something that isn't really there and get burned over the top.
That - to me at least - is what stretching the field is truly about. Sending wide receivers and tight ends to attack the middle to deep areas of the field (10-40 yards), while letting the fullback and tail back (I'm an I-formation guy, just in case my numerous posts about running the ball hadn't given that away) work the spaces underneath, both in the flats to the sides and in front of the linebackers.
Again, the key to a stretch like that is not just to make the defence cover the whole width of the field, but to also cover much of it's length at the same time, combining routes in such a way as to force defenders to make tough choices about how far they're prepared to go in any one direction, lest they leave a gaping hole somewhere else;
I think it's safe to say looking at the diagram above that the defense has it's hands full on every passing play, but only when a team fully exploits the potential of the passing game by using all of the available routes in various combinations to confuse defenses and cause hesitation in their decision making, which is the absolute bane of any defense.
Defensive players are always taught to trust their eyes and play fast. Defensive Coordinators (the good ones at least) are always looking for ways to simplify their schemes as much as they can get away with, particularly by simplifying the reads their players have to make. The coaches want to make it as easy as possible for their players - at least from a mental perspective - to identify what's going on and to respond to it.
The longer a defensive player has to wait before reacting, the less time he has to actually get to the ball and make a play. At the NFL level, even a slight hesitation can be costly. By stretching the defense out both horizontally and vertically you can force defenders to wait longer before making choices; whether to sit short or drop back deep, whether to go inside or out.
An offense that stretches the defense horizontally but not vertically is doing the defense a favour, making it easier for them to play soft zones underneath or to bring heavy pressure combined with tight initial coverage. Teams that stretch the defense vertically but not horizontally are not much better, permitting the defense the advantage of sitting back and pinning the offense into tight throwing windows.
An offense that pulls the defense around both horizontally and vertically gives itself breathing room. It drags defenders out of position and it creates passing lanes (and running lanes). It also gives the quarterback options, giving him the chance to throw deep for a big gain, throw an intermediate pass for ball control or just a check down to help set up a convertible down and distance for the next play.
By the simple expedient of mixing up the routes - and with a bit of forward planning - an offense can make the defenses job several times harder with little additional effort on their own part. I'll be watching the Chiefs closely this week if Stanzi plays to see whether they use the deep pass to help take some of the pressure off the rookie quarterback.
And I'll be taking Atlanta over Jacksonville in tomorrow nights game.
With Haley's departure there was a void, and that void has been filled (for now) by Romeo Crennel. One of Crennels first acts was to announce to the team and the press that the God awful Tyler Palko has been relegated down the Quarterback chart... all the way to third place. Kyle Orton will start this week, providing he's fully recovered and healthy enough to play. If not then the gauntlet will fall to Ricky Stanzi, the rookie out of Iowa.
Good.
Other than correctly predicting the round in which Stanzi would be taken, which had as much do with skill as predicting lottery numbers, I was really high on Stanzi pre-draft. At one point I had him pegged number one among the quarterbacks in the 2011 draft, but later revised that in favour of Ponder by a smidgen.
That still makes Stanzi number two though. I just really liked what I saw from Stanzi at Iowa. Some of the underneath passes were a little errant under pressure and his footwork in the pocket was sometimes a little heavy, but generally speaking he was really good. It helped that he played for a team that ran a lot, so he had plenty of play action opportunities, and also that his receivers were pretty good. But that doesn't take away from the fact that Stanzi had a great deep pass, slotting the ball in beautifully over his receivers shoulders.
That's what I'm hoping to see if the Chiefs go with Stanzi; deep passes to unlock the potential of guys like Dwayne Bowe and Jonathan Baldwin.
The deep passing game has always interested me. It's not so much the idea of making big plays that appeals, although obviously that's a big part of it! The thing that interests me the most is the genuine stretch of the defense that is achieved through throwing the ball deep.
Coaches often talk about "spreading the field" and "making the defense protect every blade of grass". But it's surprising how few teams genuinely do this. There are a lot of teams that run "spread" offenses, that force the defense to string themselves out horizontally to cover four or five wide receivers, but a lot of these teams seem to neglect the deep pass.
The threat of the 40 yard fade pass down the sideline does so much for an offense. It forces the corners to play looser, sitting back a little more in order to avoid getting blown past. It makes safeties conscious of the need to protect the deep middle of the field, making them slower to react to run plays as they understand all too well the consequences of biting on what turns out to be a play action fake.
It even affects the linebackers. Now in this regard we're talking more about the deep-in passes, breaking across the middle of the field at a 15 yard depth, but the effect is still the same. It forces them be wary of run action, in case they bite on something that isn't really there and get burned over the top.
That - to me at least - is what stretching the field is truly about. Sending wide receivers and tight ends to attack the middle to deep areas of the field (10-40 yards), while letting the fullback and tail back (I'm an I-formation guy, just in case my numerous posts about running the ball hadn't given that away) work the spaces underneath, both in the flats to the sides and in front of the linebackers.
Again, the key to a stretch like that is not just to make the defence cover the whole width of the field, but to also cover much of it's length at the same time, combining routes in such a way as to force defenders to make tough choices about how far they're prepared to go in any one direction, lest they leave a gaping hole somewhere else;
 |
| Just some of the dizzying array of pass route options |
I think it's safe to say looking at the diagram above that the defense has it's hands full on every passing play, but only when a team fully exploits the potential of the passing game by using all of the available routes in various combinations to confuse defenses and cause hesitation in their decision making, which is the absolute bane of any defense.
Defensive players are always taught to trust their eyes and play fast. Defensive Coordinators (the good ones at least) are always looking for ways to simplify their schemes as much as they can get away with, particularly by simplifying the reads their players have to make. The coaches want to make it as easy as possible for their players - at least from a mental perspective - to identify what's going on and to respond to it.
The longer a defensive player has to wait before reacting, the less time he has to actually get to the ball and make a play. At the NFL level, even a slight hesitation can be costly. By stretching the defense out both horizontally and vertically you can force defenders to wait longer before making choices; whether to sit short or drop back deep, whether to go inside or out.
An offense that stretches the defense horizontally but not vertically is doing the defense a favour, making it easier for them to play soft zones underneath or to bring heavy pressure combined with tight initial coverage. Teams that stretch the defense vertically but not horizontally are not much better, permitting the defense the advantage of sitting back and pinning the offense into tight throwing windows.
An offense that pulls the defense around both horizontally and vertically gives itself breathing room. It drags defenders out of position and it creates passing lanes (and running lanes). It also gives the quarterback options, giving him the chance to throw deep for a big gain, throw an intermediate pass for ball control or just a check down to help set up a convertible down and distance for the next play.
By the simple expedient of mixing up the routes - and with a bit of forward planning - an offense can make the defenses job several times harder with little additional effort on their own part. I'll be watching the Chiefs closely this week if Stanzi plays to see whether they use the deep pass to help take some of the pressure off the rookie quarterback.
And I'll be taking Atlanta over Jacksonville in tomorrow nights game.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Week 14 results
What a great weekend of football! I can honestly say I don't think I've enjoyed football as much as I did this week. Some great games and some crazy results.
I'm surprised how well the Titans did against the Saints and credit to Jake Locker who nearly came back and one that thing. Washington taking New England to the limit was pretty crazy. The Redskins are a tough team to figure out right now. Some better tackling and they'd be in much better shape going into the final few weeks of the season.
The Cowboys/Giants game on Sunday night was great, but you have to feel a little sorry for Tony Romo for a change. There were plays near the end when it should have been wrapped up, but drops gave New York a way back into it.
Speaking of drops and bad plays, congratulations to Tampa Bay for practially handing that game back over to Jacksonville. That was stinker.
And more drops plagued the Broncos and Tim Tebow this week. At one point Tebow was something like 4/15, despite hitting multiple receivers in the hands. Still, he kept it together and put together some great late/overtime drives, helped by another drop, this time Bears running back Marion Barber coughing it up on a run. The one thing that people over look about Tebow is how rare it is for him to turn the ball over, which avoids putting the defense in tough spots. I think the Broncos should get themselves a sure handed receiver or two as a priority this off season, as everything else seems to be working quite well. A new receivers coach would help too!
And I clap my hands to John Skelton of the Cardinals. I still have no idea how he does it, but does it he does. If you see what I mean? 4-1 in his appearances now with the Cardinals. A lot of people appear surprised by the 49ers loss, but I've trying to say for weeks now that we're basically in the same boat as the Bronocs; great defense, so-so offense. Our receivers are fine, but Alex Smith still struggles. It's basically the opposite offensive problem that the Broncos have.
But really the result of the week had to be the Falcons come back against the Panthers. They were getting slaughtered at one point, until they managed to bring it back from the dead, with a few helpful turnovers from Cam Newton.
And it's with Cam that I want to stay for a while.
If you cast your mind back pre-draft, a lot of the issues people were having with Newton centered around the whole "entertainer and an Icon" type statements that he'd made. A big worry, for me included, was that Newton would become a "me first" person in the NFL, instead of a "we first" person who put the team ahead of his personal gain and fame.
The Superman touchdown celebrations aside, Cam has been very careful this season to avoid anything that would appear, overtly or otherwise, to be selfish or unteamwork(?) like. He's been a good soldier on and off the field for Carolina this year. Until he gave an interview with ESPN that is. I'll link it here, and then again at the end.
Now there's some good and some bad so in the interest of balance we bring up both.
The start is good. When asked about his critics he explains that he doesn't have time to worry about them and that when people say that he can't do something he doesn't care, he'll give it a go anyway. That's all positive and certainly for someone who's been under as much scrutiny as he has, that's exactly the right attitude to assume. It doesn't do him any good to dwell on the negative opinions out there.
But then it starts to go downhill. Lions and safari's aside, Cam in a round about kind of way basically says that the Panthers organisation have a losing attitude. I'm not sure the comments about having to turn it around or leave the house went down well either. I'd imagine though the knife that will stick in the backs of some of his team mates is the comment about "trying to get everyone on my level."
Don't get me wrong, Cam has surpassed my expectations of what he would be capable of in the NFL. He's having a pretty good rookie year. However, I think it's a rather audacious claim to say that he's automatically above the rest of the team in performance. He's thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, and been sacked 30 times now for the loss of 221 yards, along with 5 fumbles. The 13 rushing touchdowns certainly weight heavily back in his favour. But his red zone performance has been lacking, with a completion percentage that drops below 40%
He's still playing well, but to claim you're on a level above everyone else is quite something, especially as it's fairly obvious that the talents of Steve Smith, especially when it comes to catching under thrown jump balls, have had a huge influence on his passing numbers.
He goes on to explain that sometimes he'll see team mates, after they've made a bad play, shake it off and say something like "it's ok, we'll get it the next time", compared to himself where he feels like he's more annoyed with his bad plays, the insinutation being that he cares more.
Well personally I find that hard to buy. I've seen Cam throw picks and take sacks, then walk off the field with a huge smile on his face. That then strikes me as being somewhat hypocritical to accuse others of not caring, or at least not showing that they care, when their quarterback has displayed a similar attribute.
It does end on a good note though, talking about preparation over luck, which is critical to any high level athlete. He at least seems to be well aware of the heavy demands that are expected of a quarterback to prepare for each game.
All in all, some good, some bad. I worry though about that attitude of being the best guy on the team and if everyone else could just lift their game up to his level then everything would be fine. I can't imagine there's many people sitting in that Panthers locker room, especially after Sunday's game where he threw an incredibly silly pick, who would agree that if everyone could just play like Cam then all will be well.
Again, you can watch the interview here, though I warn you that sometimes the picture glitches out, although the audio is usually fine.
Pick wise, first off I just noticed that I labelled my week 14 picks as being week 13. Consistency fail. It was indeed week 14 and I ended up 11-4 for the week, which puts my season tally up to 136-75. I suddenly love picking games again!
I'm surprised how well the Titans did against the Saints and credit to Jake Locker who nearly came back and one that thing. Washington taking New England to the limit was pretty crazy. The Redskins are a tough team to figure out right now. Some better tackling and they'd be in much better shape going into the final few weeks of the season.
The Cowboys/Giants game on Sunday night was great, but you have to feel a little sorry for Tony Romo for a change. There were plays near the end when it should have been wrapped up, but drops gave New York a way back into it.
Speaking of drops and bad plays, congratulations to Tampa Bay for practially handing that game back over to Jacksonville. That was stinker.
And more drops plagued the Broncos and Tim Tebow this week. At one point Tebow was something like 4/15, despite hitting multiple receivers in the hands. Still, he kept it together and put together some great late/overtime drives, helped by another drop, this time Bears running back Marion Barber coughing it up on a run. The one thing that people over look about Tebow is how rare it is for him to turn the ball over, which avoids putting the defense in tough spots. I think the Broncos should get themselves a sure handed receiver or two as a priority this off season, as everything else seems to be working quite well. A new receivers coach would help too!
And I clap my hands to John Skelton of the Cardinals. I still have no idea how he does it, but does it he does. If you see what I mean? 4-1 in his appearances now with the Cardinals. A lot of people appear surprised by the 49ers loss, but I've trying to say for weeks now that we're basically in the same boat as the Bronocs; great defense, so-so offense. Our receivers are fine, but Alex Smith still struggles. It's basically the opposite offensive problem that the Broncos have.
But really the result of the week had to be the Falcons come back against the Panthers. They were getting slaughtered at one point, until they managed to bring it back from the dead, with a few helpful turnovers from Cam Newton.
And it's with Cam that I want to stay for a while.
If you cast your mind back pre-draft, a lot of the issues people were having with Newton centered around the whole "entertainer and an Icon" type statements that he'd made. A big worry, for me included, was that Newton would become a "me first" person in the NFL, instead of a "we first" person who put the team ahead of his personal gain and fame.
The Superman touchdown celebrations aside, Cam has been very careful this season to avoid anything that would appear, overtly or otherwise, to be selfish or unteamwork(?) like. He's been a good soldier on and off the field for Carolina this year. Until he gave an interview with ESPN that is. I'll link it here, and then again at the end.
Now there's some good and some bad so in the interest of balance we bring up both.
The start is good. When asked about his critics he explains that he doesn't have time to worry about them and that when people say that he can't do something he doesn't care, he'll give it a go anyway. That's all positive and certainly for someone who's been under as much scrutiny as he has, that's exactly the right attitude to assume. It doesn't do him any good to dwell on the negative opinions out there.
But then it starts to go downhill. Lions and safari's aside, Cam in a round about kind of way basically says that the Panthers organisation have a losing attitude. I'm not sure the comments about having to turn it around or leave the house went down well either. I'd imagine though the knife that will stick in the backs of some of his team mates is the comment about "trying to get everyone on my level."
Don't get me wrong, Cam has surpassed my expectations of what he would be capable of in the NFL. He's having a pretty good rookie year. However, I think it's a rather audacious claim to say that he's automatically above the rest of the team in performance. He's thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, and been sacked 30 times now for the loss of 221 yards, along with 5 fumbles. The 13 rushing touchdowns certainly weight heavily back in his favour. But his red zone performance has been lacking, with a completion percentage that drops below 40%
He's still playing well, but to claim you're on a level above everyone else is quite something, especially as it's fairly obvious that the talents of Steve Smith, especially when it comes to catching under thrown jump balls, have had a huge influence on his passing numbers.
He goes on to explain that sometimes he'll see team mates, after they've made a bad play, shake it off and say something like "it's ok, we'll get it the next time", compared to himself where he feels like he's more annoyed with his bad plays, the insinutation being that he cares more.
Well personally I find that hard to buy. I've seen Cam throw picks and take sacks, then walk off the field with a huge smile on his face. That then strikes me as being somewhat hypocritical to accuse others of not caring, or at least not showing that they care, when their quarterback has displayed a similar attribute.
It does end on a good note though, talking about preparation over luck, which is critical to any high level athlete. He at least seems to be well aware of the heavy demands that are expected of a quarterback to prepare for each game.
All in all, some good, some bad. I worry though about that attitude of being the best guy on the team and if everyone else could just lift their game up to his level then everything would be fine. I can't imagine there's many people sitting in that Panthers locker room, especially after Sunday's game where he threw an incredibly silly pick, who would agree that if everyone could just play like Cam then all will be well.
Again, you can watch the interview here, though I warn you that sometimes the picture glitches out, although the audio is usually fine.
Pick wise, first off I just noticed that I labelled my week 14 picks as being week 13. Consistency fail. It was indeed week 14 and I ended up 11-4 for the week, which puts my season tally up to 136-75. I suddenly love picking games again!
Sunday, December 11, 2011
Week 13 picks
Right then. Week 14 picks.
Ravens over Colts; Need I explain? Although Dan Orlovsky actually looks much better than Curtis Painter so there's a chance this wont be quite the walk over that it might otherwise seem.
Falcons over Panthers; As if the Panthers needed any more problems, their left tackle is missing. Against the Falcons pass rush that could be the difference.
Bengals over Texans; Because Andre Johnson is out again.
Lions over Vikings; The Vikings are probably going to be missing Adrian Peterson this week and maybe Christian Ponder too.
Buccaneers over Jaguars; C'mon Tampa. You can't be THAT bad. Can you?
Dolphins over Eagles; Because the Eagles are that bad.
Jets over Chiefs; And so are the Chiefs.
Saints over Titans; Even with Chris Johnson, beating the Saints is tough.
Patriots over Redskins; Brady to Hernandez... touchdown!
49ers over Cardinals; Even without Patrick Willis we should be able to beat Arizona.
Broncos over Bears; No Jay Cutler or Forte for the Bears, but Von Miller is back for the Broncos.
Packers over Raiders; Rodgers vs Palmer = no contest.
Chargers over Bills; Because someone has to win this game.
Giants over Cowboys; The Giants are still a pretty good team.
Seahawks over Rams; What a primetime clash.
I was going to talk about Cam Newton, but now I don't have the time so that'll have to wait till tomorrow or Monday.
Ravens over Colts; Need I explain? Although Dan Orlovsky actually looks much better than Curtis Painter so there's a chance this wont be quite the walk over that it might otherwise seem.
Falcons over Panthers; As if the Panthers needed any more problems, their left tackle is missing. Against the Falcons pass rush that could be the difference.
Bengals over Texans; Because Andre Johnson is out again.
Lions over Vikings; The Vikings are probably going to be missing Adrian Peterson this week and maybe Christian Ponder too.
Buccaneers over Jaguars; C'mon Tampa. You can't be THAT bad. Can you?
Dolphins over Eagles; Because the Eagles are that bad.
Jets over Chiefs; And so are the Chiefs.
Saints over Titans; Even with Chris Johnson, beating the Saints is tough.
Patriots over Redskins; Brady to Hernandez... touchdown!
49ers over Cardinals; Even without Patrick Willis we should be able to beat Arizona.
Broncos over Bears; No Jay Cutler or Forte for the Bears, but Von Miller is back for the Broncos.
Packers over Raiders; Rodgers vs Palmer = no contest.
Chargers over Bills; Because someone has to win this game.
Giants over Cowboys; The Giants are still a pretty good team.
Seahawks over Rams; What a primetime clash.
I was going to talk about Cam Newton, but now I don't have the time so that'll have to wait till tomorrow or Monday.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Tim Tebow and the option
Ahhh! Peace and quiet at last.
Time then to take a look at the Denver Broncos offense and in particular the option read/zone read (depending on your preferred terminology) that has propelled Tim Tebow to even higher levels of stardom, predominantly because it's seen as a contrary offense and because the option isn't supposed to work in the NFL... despite the fact that it's been working nicely all season for a number of teams.
This is probably the main reason that we need to look at this, because despite the immense success that Denver has been having people still seem to believe that such an offense can't work in the NFL. This, even in the face of week after week of evidence that should have dispelled that myth, a bit like the Lions being rated as a play off team (sorry Lions fans).
There are several reasons why this play works so well, not least because the Broncos offensive line is pretty good at run blocking, even if their pass protection is... shall we say, underwhelming? Then there's the fact that Tim Tebow ran this play God knows how many times during his college career with Florida, so he has a very good feel for the play and knowing when to keep the ball and when to give it to the running back.
But fundamentally it's about numbers.
See the problem that every offense has is that on any given run play they are basically short handed by two men; the quarterback and the running back. The quarterback hands the ball off and is in no position to block anyone, even if he were inclined to do so. The running back is carrying the ball and thus is also exempted from blocking duties. That leaves only nine men left to block eleven, and to be honest at least two of those blockers are likely to be wide receivers so it's more like seven on eleven, minus any cornerbacks who take the Deion Sanders "business decision" approach to tackling. Option plays try to remedy that problem to a degree.
Now I can already hear all the coaches out there currently repeating the oft used mantra of "It's about Jimmy's and Joe's, not X's and O's!" which when translated from coach speak into normal person speak, roughly means; "Winning in Football is about teaching players the skills of the game, motivating them and using an offense they can understand, not drawing pretty diagrams," or words to that effect.
And while broadly speaking I agree with that sentence, I also think pretty diagrams (or even ugly ones like mine) have an important role to play in helping offenses to mitigate some of their deficiencies, while maximising their potential. Option plays are a great example.
Basically the play involves the offense purposely leaving one player completely unblocked. Now that might sound like quite a stupid thing to do, but the offense has a plan. What they're going to do is to make that unblocked defender make a choice. They're going to give him two conflicting options and make him pick one. Let's throw up a quick diagram so we have a better idea of what I'm talking about;
As you can see in my superbly drawn diagram (stop laughing) I've circled the unblocked defensive player in red. The offense is going to make this player chose between chasing after the running back or staying "home" to defend against the quarterback. Due to the direction that the offensive players are running in (opposites), it's impossible for the defensive end to cover both men on the play. If he's to have any chance of making an impact then he has to make a decision and he has to make it early, committing himself to his decision.
This is where the "option" in option football comes in. The quarterback has the option of either giving the ball to the running back or keeping it himself, depending on the reaction of the unblocked defender; if he races hard down the line then the quaterback keeps the ball and runs around the exposed end himself. If the defender sits back cautiously and just watches the quarterback, or even comes hard up the field on a pass rush, then the QB hands it off to the back (imagine someone like Jared Allen trying to chase a running back down from behind when the back has a 4-5 yard head start).
To give himself a bit more time to make the read and to be sure of the defenders decision, the quarterback will often take two small sliding steps in the direction the running back is headed, all the while with his body turned towards the unblocked defender and the ball extended out into the path of the back (the "mesh" that you're always hearing about). He then either gives it to the back or pulls it out and takes it himself.
It's because this "give/take" decision has to be made in such a short time window - and because of the trickiness of the ball handling - that it really helps immensely to have an experienced quarterback (at least with regards to this play) like Tebow in there running it. This is not a play that you want to just run on a whim with any old quarterback, because the consequences of a bad read or a mishandled mesh can be serious, with your quarterback running right into the arms of a 270 pound defensive linemen or a fumble that is likely to bounce towards the waiting defense.
Now hopefully, after we've gone to all that trouble to fake out the end defender, our linemen should have made their blocks. Depending on the front used by the defense the offensive line will either have a numbers advantage, or at the very least have one on one blocks across the board ("a hat on a hat" as they say). Let's take a look at how this play can end up panning out;
As demonstrated once more by my elite drawing skills you can see at the top that when the end crashes down (or he could just be sitting in that hole) the quarterback will give the ball to the back. That leaves us with six linemen blocking six defenders and a running back looking for a hole. At the bottom you can see the unblocked defensive lineman is pressing hard down the line trying to get to the running back which - along with the blocks of the offensive line - leaves the backside of the play wide open for the quarterback to pull the ball and run through. In actuality the quarterback would take a slightly more horizontal first few steps just to make sure he got around that end ok, but I'm too lazy to go back and adjust the diagram now.
So we've seen how the option read/zone read works (the "zone" in "zone read" comes from the offensive linemen using zone blocking). The question now switches to the opposite side of the ball and the defense's perspective. Simply put; how do you stop this play?
The common approach touted by your TV talking head of choice is likely to go something along the lines of "you play sound, disciplined, assignment football". That is to say that each of the defensive players should stick to their normal run gap and fill it in exactly the same way that they would against any other running play.
Which is probably one of the worst things that you could do against this play.
See the problem you have by playing disciplined, assignment football is that your defensive end, the unblocked guy, is going to sit at "home" and play contain on the edge. He's going to attack downfield at the snap (he has to assume the offense might try and pass) but the second that he sees the quarterback making the read during the mesh with the running back, he's going to stop and start protecting the edge of the defense.
And the quarterbacks just going to hand the ball off every time to the running back.
With the end standing still he's effectively taken himself out of the play, which is precisely what the offense wants. In fact it's probably the best outcome for the offense, because it means you're giving the ball to your dedicated running back and not risking your quarterback taking a big hit. This is worth just settling on for a second because this is - at least in my opinion - going to be the primary limiting factor for this play in the NFL.
Not many coaches are going to be willing to risk their multi-million dollar quarterback taking too many lumps over the course of a full 16 game season every year. While it won't stop the zone read - any play that can surprise a defense and get yards will stay in the NFL for as long as it's effective - I do think that we'll see less and less of it as guys like Tebow and Cam Newton develop as passers. We'll still get the odd treat, just not as often.
Anyway, back to the defense. So if they can't play assignment football to beat the zone read, then what can they do? The simple answer is for the defense to pull a fast one and install a special defensive play just to counter the zone read. Now that might sound like a lot of effort for the defense just for the sake of one play, but it's really only a subtle variation on the way they would normally defend a play like this.
They key for the defense is understanding that the quarterbacks decision of whether to give or take is based on what the unblocked defensive man does. As we've seen, if the unblocked man drives hard down the line then the quarterback will pull the ball back and try to take it around the end himself.
With that in mind the defense can now take the initiative away from the offense and force the offenses hand. All you do is you tell that defensive end to crash down the line the second he sees the zone read play developing, safe in the knowledge that the quarterback will see it, take the ball, and run it himself around the edge. Now here's the clever bit.
Knowing that you've got the quarterback to react as planned (he sees the end crashing so he takes and runs) you now get your linebacker on that side to forget about chasing the running back and tell him that the second he recognises a zone read he should come charging down and fill the outside gap. The quarterback will come flying around the edge thinking he's in for a big gain when suddenly...
BOOM!!
He gets blown up by your linebacker scraping around the edge. Let's have a look at that in a diagram form. I know you can't wait to see more of my artistic talents on display;
As you can see from the large "BOOM!!" marker, the defense has tricked the quarterback into keeping the ball and trying to run around the edge, where he's met by the linebacker making a deliberate and immediate move towards the edge. In reality, obviously the quarterback often sees the linebacker coming and more often than not takes evasive action as only a quarterback can; by diving or sliding immediately into the dirt/plastic.
Which now puts the ball firmly back in the offenses court. If the defense is going to force the quarterback to carry it (he can try handing it off but if the running back so much as hesitates then he's dead meat) and the linebacker is just going to come down and fill that gap, what does the offense do now? Zone read stuffed?
Not quite yet.
If the defense is going to force the quarterback to keep it around the end and then bring a different player down to fill gap, then the logical reaction to this is to introduce another offensive player into the mix and simply read off the second defender; a triple option (quarterback, running back, wide receiver).
The best way to achieve this is to line up a receiver in the slot to the right (presuming the offense is set to the right as in the diagrams above) and then send that receiver in motion behind the quarterback (you can also line him up to the quarterbacks right side in a shotgun/split backs look). Just as he's approaching the rear of the quarterback you snap the ball and the quarterback makes the zone read as normal.
If he sees the unblocked defensive end chasing down the line then he keeps the ball and takes it around the end as he normally would on a zone read, except that now he's going to have a wide receiver running outside of him ready to receive a pitch. The quarterback is now looking out for that linebacker coming down to fill the gap. If he goes towards the quarterback then the quarterback pitches it to the receiver. If the linebacker tries to get wide and cover the receiver then the quarterback keeps it himself and runs right up through the ensuing hole.
Here's how it looks;
The wide receiver has to be careful to maintain the correct pitch relationship with the quarterback, making sure to stay slightly behind the quarterback so that any pitch doesn't go forward. If the quarterback crosses the line of scrimmage and then has to pitch the ball forward that's going to draw a flag.
Once again the offense has the defense in a bind. No matter what the linebacker does, he's going to be wrong. If he tries to take the quarterback then the ball is going to get pitched to the receiver. If the linebacker takes the receiver then he's going to let the quarterback run free inside of him.
All is not lost for the defense though. They will likely have a nickel back on the field covering the slot receiver, so when that receiver motions across the field the nickelback might get across in time to help out (or be as much help as a nickel back can be when it comes to tackling...)
Alternatively the defense can bring the free safety down and involve him in the option dilemma. In this case the defense can play a little game where they make the quarterback try and figure out whether the linebacker is covering him or whether the safety is. If the defense uses the linebacker to cover the wide receiver and brings the safety down to take the quarterback, then the quarterback can end up keeping the ball, running inside and running straight into the safety.
From there the offense can play its own games, by sending the slot receiver in motion, faking the initial step of the triple option play... but then having the fullback cut back to the outside and dive at the legs of the defensive end. Meanwhile the wide receiver stops and comes rushing back towards the quarterback to receiver a hand off going to the right, as the offense now plays a classic outside zone run;
And then of course there is play-action to be had off of that....
I think we'll leave it there for now. Suffice to say that the back and forth that started with a simple zone read can go on for hours as defenses figure out new ways of adjusting to and manipulating the offensive reads, while offense's finds new ways to make it harder for the defense to know who's being read, and hampering their efforts to cheat into position to take away certain plays, applying the constraint theory of offense.
That's one of the things that's so enjoyable about football; the back and forth that goes on between the coaches. And proof I feel that sometimes the X's and O's of football can be just as important as the Jimmy's and Joe's.
And even the Tim Tebow's.
Tomorrow I'll do my picks for this weekend and have a quick word about an interview that Cam Newton gave to ESPN, which I don't have time to write about now. See you then.
P.S. Thanks to Teoita for the inspiration for this article! If you have something you think I should write about or a subject you'd like to know more about, you can e-mail me at; keepingthechainsmoving@live.co.uk
Time then to take a look at the Denver Broncos offense and in particular the option read/zone read (depending on your preferred terminology) that has propelled Tim Tebow to even higher levels of stardom, predominantly because it's seen as a contrary offense and because the option isn't supposed to work in the NFL... despite the fact that it's been working nicely all season for a number of teams.
This is probably the main reason that we need to look at this, because despite the immense success that Denver has been having people still seem to believe that such an offense can't work in the NFL. This, even in the face of week after week of evidence that should have dispelled that myth, a bit like the Lions being rated as a play off team (sorry Lions fans).
There are several reasons why this play works so well, not least because the Broncos offensive line is pretty good at run blocking, even if their pass protection is... shall we say, underwhelming? Then there's the fact that Tim Tebow ran this play God knows how many times during his college career with Florida, so he has a very good feel for the play and knowing when to keep the ball and when to give it to the running back.
But fundamentally it's about numbers.
See the problem that every offense has is that on any given run play they are basically short handed by two men; the quarterback and the running back. The quarterback hands the ball off and is in no position to block anyone, even if he were inclined to do so. The running back is carrying the ball and thus is also exempted from blocking duties. That leaves only nine men left to block eleven, and to be honest at least two of those blockers are likely to be wide receivers so it's more like seven on eleven, minus any cornerbacks who take the Deion Sanders "business decision" approach to tackling. Option plays try to remedy that problem to a degree.
Now I can already hear all the coaches out there currently repeating the oft used mantra of "It's about Jimmy's and Joe's, not X's and O's!" which when translated from coach speak into normal person speak, roughly means; "Winning in Football is about teaching players the skills of the game, motivating them and using an offense they can understand, not drawing pretty diagrams," or words to that effect.
And while broadly speaking I agree with that sentence, I also think pretty diagrams (or even ugly ones like mine) have an important role to play in helping offenses to mitigate some of their deficiencies, while maximising their potential. Option plays are a great example.
Basically the play involves the offense purposely leaving one player completely unblocked. Now that might sound like quite a stupid thing to do, but the offense has a plan. What they're going to do is to make that unblocked defender make a choice. They're going to give him two conflicting options and make him pick one. Let's throw up a quick diagram so we have a better idea of what I'm talking about;
As you can see in my superbly drawn diagram (stop laughing) I've circled the unblocked defensive player in red. The offense is going to make this player chose between chasing after the running back or staying "home" to defend against the quarterback. Due to the direction that the offensive players are running in (opposites), it's impossible for the defensive end to cover both men on the play. If he's to have any chance of making an impact then he has to make a decision and he has to make it early, committing himself to his decision.
This is where the "option" in option football comes in. The quarterback has the option of either giving the ball to the running back or keeping it himself, depending on the reaction of the unblocked defender; if he races hard down the line then the quaterback keeps the ball and runs around the exposed end himself. If the defender sits back cautiously and just watches the quarterback, or even comes hard up the field on a pass rush, then the QB hands it off to the back (imagine someone like Jared Allen trying to chase a running back down from behind when the back has a 4-5 yard head start).
To give himself a bit more time to make the read and to be sure of the defenders decision, the quarterback will often take two small sliding steps in the direction the running back is headed, all the while with his body turned towards the unblocked defender and the ball extended out into the path of the back (the "mesh" that you're always hearing about). He then either gives it to the back or pulls it out and takes it himself.
It's because this "give/take" decision has to be made in such a short time window - and because of the trickiness of the ball handling - that it really helps immensely to have an experienced quarterback (at least with regards to this play) like Tebow in there running it. This is not a play that you want to just run on a whim with any old quarterback, because the consequences of a bad read or a mishandled mesh can be serious, with your quarterback running right into the arms of a 270 pound defensive linemen or a fumble that is likely to bounce towards the waiting defense.
Now hopefully, after we've gone to all that trouble to fake out the end defender, our linemen should have made their blocks. Depending on the front used by the defense the offensive line will either have a numbers advantage, or at the very least have one on one blocks across the board ("a hat on a hat" as they say). Let's take a look at how this play can end up panning out;
As demonstrated once more by my elite drawing skills you can see at the top that when the end crashes down (or he could just be sitting in that hole) the quarterback will give the ball to the back. That leaves us with six linemen blocking six defenders and a running back looking for a hole. At the bottom you can see the unblocked defensive lineman is pressing hard down the line trying to get to the running back which - along with the blocks of the offensive line - leaves the backside of the play wide open for the quarterback to pull the ball and run through. In actuality the quarterback would take a slightly more horizontal first few steps just to make sure he got around that end ok, but I'm too lazy to go back and adjust the diagram now.
So we've seen how the option read/zone read works (the "zone" in "zone read" comes from the offensive linemen using zone blocking). The question now switches to the opposite side of the ball and the defense's perspective. Simply put; how do you stop this play?
The common approach touted by your TV talking head of choice is likely to go something along the lines of "you play sound, disciplined, assignment football". That is to say that each of the defensive players should stick to their normal run gap and fill it in exactly the same way that they would against any other running play.
Which is probably one of the worst things that you could do against this play.
See the problem you have by playing disciplined, assignment football is that your defensive end, the unblocked guy, is going to sit at "home" and play contain on the edge. He's going to attack downfield at the snap (he has to assume the offense might try and pass) but the second that he sees the quarterback making the read during the mesh with the running back, he's going to stop and start protecting the edge of the defense.
And the quarterbacks just going to hand the ball off every time to the running back.
With the end standing still he's effectively taken himself out of the play, which is precisely what the offense wants. In fact it's probably the best outcome for the offense, because it means you're giving the ball to your dedicated running back and not risking your quarterback taking a big hit. This is worth just settling on for a second because this is - at least in my opinion - going to be the primary limiting factor for this play in the NFL.
Not many coaches are going to be willing to risk their multi-million dollar quarterback taking too many lumps over the course of a full 16 game season every year. While it won't stop the zone read - any play that can surprise a defense and get yards will stay in the NFL for as long as it's effective - I do think that we'll see less and less of it as guys like Tebow and Cam Newton develop as passers. We'll still get the odd treat, just not as often.
Anyway, back to the defense. So if they can't play assignment football to beat the zone read, then what can they do? The simple answer is for the defense to pull a fast one and install a special defensive play just to counter the zone read. Now that might sound like a lot of effort for the defense just for the sake of one play, but it's really only a subtle variation on the way they would normally defend a play like this.
They key for the defense is understanding that the quarterbacks decision of whether to give or take is based on what the unblocked defensive man does. As we've seen, if the unblocked man drives hard down the line then the quarterback will pull the ball back and try to take it around the end himself.
With that in mind the defense can now take the initiative away from the offense and force the offenses hand. All you do is you tell that defensive end to crash down the line the second he sees the zone read play developing, safe in the knowledge that the quarterback will see it, take the ball, and run it himself around the edge. Now here's the clever bit.
Knowing that you've got the quarterback to react as planned (he sees the end crashing so he takes and runs) you now get your linebacker on that side to forget about chasing the running back and tell him that the second he recognises a zone read he should come charging down and fill the outside gap. The quarterback will come flying around the edge thinking he's in for a big gain when suddenly...
BOOM!!
He gets blown up by your linebacker scraping around the edge. Let's have a look at that in a diagram form. I know you can't wait to see more of my artistic talents on display;
As you can see from the large "BOOM!!" marker, the defense has tricked the quarterback into keeping the ball and trying to run around the edge, where he's met by the linebacker making a deliberate and immediate move towards the edge. In reality, obviously the quarterback often sees the linebacker coming and more often than not takes evasive action as only a quarterback can; by diving or sliding immediately into the dirt/plastic.
Which now puts the ball firmly back in the offenses court. If the defense is going to force the quarterback to carry it (he can try handing it off but if the running back so much as hesitates then he's dead meat) and the linebacker is just going to come down and fill that gap, what does the offense do now? Zone read stuffed?
Not quite yet.
If the defense is going to force the quarterback to keep it around the end and then bring a different player down to fill gap, then the logical reaction to this is to introduce another offensive player into the mix and simply read off the second defender; a triple option (quarterback, running back, wide receiver).
The best way to achieve this is to line up a receiver in the slot to the right (presuming the offense is set to the right as in the diagrams above) and then send that receiver in motion behind the quarterback (you can also line him up to the quarterbacks right side in a shotgun/split backs look). Just as he's approaching the rear of the quarterback you snap the ball and the quarterback makes the zone read as normal.
If he sees the unblocked defensive end chasing down the line then he keeps the ball and takes it around the end as he normally would on a zone read, except that now he's going to have a wide receiver running outside of him ready to receive a pitch. The quarterback is now looking out for that linebacker coming down to fill the gap. If he goes towards the quarterback then the quarterback pitches it to the receiver. If the linebacker tries to get wide and cover the receiver then the quarterback keeps it himself and runs right up through the ensuing hole.
Here's how it looks;
The wide receiver has to be careful to maintain the correct pitch relationship with the quarterback, making sure to stay slightly behind the quarterback so that any pitch doesn't go forward. If the quarterback crosses the line of scrimmage and then has to pitch the ball forward that's going to draw a flag.
Once again the offense has the defense in a bind. No matter what the linebacker does, he's going to be wrong. If he tries to take the quarterback then the ball is going to get pitched to the receiver. If the linebacker takes the receiver then he's going to let the quarterback run free inside of him.
All is not lost for the defense though. They will likely have a nickel back on the field covering the slot receiver, so when that receiver motions across the field the nickelback might get across in time to help out (or be as much help as a nickel back can be when it comes to tackling...)
Alternatively the defense can bring the free safety down and involve him in the option dilemma. In this case the defense can play a little game where they make the quarterback try and figure out whether the linebacker is covering him or whether the safety is. If the defense uses the linebacker to cover the wide receiver and brings the safety down to take the quarterback, then the quarterback can end up keeping the ball, running inside and running straight into the safety.
From there the offense can play its own games, by sending the slot receiver in motion, faking the initial step of the triple option play... but then having the fullback cut back to the outside and dive at the legs of the defensive end. Meanwhile the wide receiver stops and comes rushing back towards the quarterback to receiver a hand off going to the right, as the offense now plays a classic outside zone run;
And then of course there is play-action to be had off of that....
I think we'll leave it there for now. Suffice to say that the back and forth that started with a simple zone read can go on for hours as defenses figure out new ways of adjusting to and manipulating the offensive reads, while offense's finds new ways to make it harder for the defense to know who's being read, and hampering their efforts to cheat into position to take away certain plays, applying the constraint theory of offense.
That's one of the things that's so enjoyable about football; the back and forth that goes on between the coaches. And proof I feel that sometimes the X's and O's of football can be just as important as the Jimmy's and Joe's.
And even the Tim Tebow's.
Tomorrow I'll do my picks for this weekend and have a quick word about an interview that Cam Newton gave to ESPN, which I don't have time to write about now. See you then.
P.S. Thanks to Teoita for the inspiration for this article! If you have something you think I should write about or a subject you'd like to know more about, you can e-mail me at; keepingthechainsmoving@live.co.uk
Friday, December 09, 2011
£%$*^&>
Or as it's otherwise known; delay to Tebow/Broncos offense/option article. You can't leave some people unattended for more than a few hours for their own safety. That's all I'm saying. At least I got the Steelers pick right, which was basically a gimme. Normal service will resume tomorrow.
Ahhhhhhhhhhh
Forgot to make a Thursday night pick. I think it goes without saying (so why say it then?) that I'm taking the Steelers over the Browns. I'm now also about to sit down and write about the Broncos offense.
Wednesday, December 07, 2011
Euerika!
Well, kind of. I had an e-mail from long time reader Teoita, who made a perfect suggestion for something to write about this week; the Broncos offense. Specifically the option read or zone read, depending on which terminology set you prefer. It may take a day or two but it's an eminently worthy suggestion and should make an interesting topic.
So keep checking-in over the next few days and hopefully we can all sit around and share in the warm glow that is option football.
So keep checking-in over the next few days and hopefully we can all sit around and share in the warm glow that is option football.
Tuesday, December 06, 2011
Update 12/06/11
Looking back at Week 13, not a bad week for me pick wise. 12-4, which takes my season tally to 125-71. Kicking butt compared to last year. My thanks though to the Chiefs in particular, who stole a pick from me with a hail mary pass.
Now the dilema begins. I just can't think what to write about. I'm having one of those mental blocks that sometimes you get, where you have a whole ton of stuff going on in front of you, but for some reason you can't seem to pluck any one thought out from among the morass and turn it into a meaningful article.
I'm tempted to take another look at the Bears run game - and power running in general - just to pick up some threads that I think I left hanging last time I covered them. I'm not sure about that though.
If you have any clever ideas, e-mail them to me; keepingthechainsmoving@live.co.uk
Now the dilema begins. I just can't think what to write about. I'm having one of those mental blocks that sometimes you get, where you have a whole ton of stuff going on in front of you, but for some reason you can't seem to pluck any one thought out from among the morass and turn it into a meaningful article.
I'm tempted to take another look at the Bears run game - and power running in general - just to pick up some threads that I think I left hanging last time I covered them. I'm not sure about that though.
If you have any clever ideas, e-mail them to me; keepingthechainsmoving@live.co.uk
Sunday, December 04, 2011
Nearly forgot...
.... with bags hanging from my eyes (I've been awake for 24 hours) I have to make my picks for week 13. I started successfully this week with the Seahawks over the Eagles. All I'm going to do for the rest of the games is write who I think wins, not even explanations this week. I'm soooooo tired;
TITANS over Bills,
BEARS over Chiefs,
FALCONS over Texans,
DOLPHINS over Raiders,
BRONCOS over Vikings,
COLTS over Patriots (I'm just kidding, fuck that. PATRIOTS over COLTS),
STEELERS over Bengals,
BUCCANEERS over Panthers,
JETS over Redskins,
RAVENS over Browns,
COWBOYS over Cardinals,
PACKERS over Giants,
49ERS over Rams,
SAINTS over Lions,
CHARGERS over Jaguars,
Ta da!!!
TITANS over Bills,
BEARS over Chiefs,
FALCONS over Texans,
DOLPHINS over Raiders,
BRONCOS over Vikings,
COLTS over Patriots (I'm just kidding, fuck that. PATRIOTS over COLTS),
STEELERS over Bengals,
BUCCANEERS over Panthers,
JETS over Redskins,
RAVENS over Browns,
COWBOYS over Cardinals,
PACKERS over Giants,
49ERS over Rams,
SAINTS over Lions,
CHARGERS over Jaguars,
Ta da!!!
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