4th and 2

It seems everyone else on the planet has voiced their opinion in the argument over whether Bill Belichick made the right choice going for it on that now infamous 4th down on Sunday Night, so I might as well have a crack to. First of all, I don't want to hear about statistics or percentages. All too often I think people try and break down the game of football into percentages and chances of xyz happening, that it's all about mathematics, without realising that their are human beings involved (and not to mention the weather). Football is nothing like flipping a coin or spinning a roulette wheel. There are a ton of variables to consider. Take for example the stat that I keep seeing people batting around. Every football mathematician (for want of a better word) keeps repeating the same percentage: that the Pats had a 65% shot of making it on first down. Really? Because looking at the numbers, prior to this 4th down attempt the Pats had completed just 5 of 10 on 4th down attempts. Now, I'm no expert on numbers, but I'm pretty bloody sure that equals 50%, not 65%. And that's for all fourth downs, even ones that were just inches. What are their stats at going 4th and 2? And then I keep hearing about the percentage chances of stopping the Colts etc and I cant help but think "hang on a second, what about the Colts chances of stopping the Pats on 4th"? Are we to assume that it only matters how successful the Pats have been in the past at getting the first down? Don't certain defenses have better chances of stopping teams than others? Or are you really going to sit there and argue that the Cleveland Browns are just as good at making stops on 4th down as the Pittsburgh Steelers? (In case you're wondering the Steelers now have an 80% success rate against 4th down attempts, while the Browns have just a 46% success rate, tied with the Colts who've now made 5 stops on 11 attempts). But I digress. First of all, something very important must be understood about this decision. If that choice had been made by say, Norv Turner or Tom Cable, they would probably be unemployed right now. It's Belichick though, which is the only reason so many people are sticking up for him. If it was Mangini, everyone in the world would be ridiculing him (and rightly so). Secondly, why, for the love of god, didn't the Pats run the ball on the third down? I know the old argument, that Welker is one of their best players etc and you think he can do it blah, blah. But it was 2 yards. Two. Give the ball to Kevin Faulk. You're a pass first team that everyone knows will try and throw it. So don't. Line up with 4 guys wide and run the ball two measly yards for the win. If you don't get it, it doesn't matter. You let the clock run to the two minute warning. Now anything that happens afterwards is reviewable from the booth. For example, if you now tried to throw for the 4th down and the refs incorrectly marked the spot...... Third, why call out your punt team, then recall them, then burn a timeout. If you're gonna punt, punt. If you're gonna go for it, go for it. If you're not sure, punt. Clock management here was terrible, and that's really unlike the Pats. And don't give me any of that "they weren't sure what play to go with" nonsense. Belichick is a student of the Bill Walsh method of coaching. He and his team will have practiced 4th and 2 before. He and his team would know exactly what play they were gonna run (your very best short yardage play). It was just poor coaching. Fourth, I found a beautiful analogy while I was reading comments that people had made about this very topic on another site. I present it here in full for you: "State of mind plays a role. If I bet you $100 that you couldn’t throw an egg 12″ in the air and catch it, would you take the bet? What if the bet was $10 million? What if you lost, your arm would be amputated? Or you were executed? In all scenarios, it’s throwing an egg 12″ in the air and catching it. Do you still think the success rates are the same?" In short, do you think Faulk bobbling the ball would have happened if it had been on the Colts 29 yard line and not the Pats? Fifth and finally, let's look at what happens if you fail to make it versus punting the ball. By all estimations, if the Pats punt the Colts would have started on about their own 30, there or there abouts. Obviously Peyton Manning is going to have a much easier time scoring from 29 yards than from 70. But there are two factors we really need to consider that make the choice of going for it on 4th down a bad move: 1) You've basically just said to your D, "Punt? Are you guys f***ing kidding me?! I'd rather ask my offense to try and go for it on 4th and lose the game if we fail, than trust you guys to stop Manning going 70 yards!" 2) Yes Manning put together two drives in the 70+ range in that quarter, but he also threw a pick in between those two drives. Manning is good, but with only around two minutes left in the half he can't use the run game at any point, he really has to pass to win. And with Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon dropping balls all over the shop, that's a chance I'd be willing to take. Let's not forget that the Colts had been far from stellar in this game. The only reason they scored on their previous drive was really the terrible pass interference call that put them in range. Yeah I know Manning is good, but on this day I think the Pats would have made the stop. I think Belichick made a horrible choice. And I think no amount of number crunching can take that away. Even if he'd made it, I still would have put it down as a bad choice. Ultimately it cost the Patriots the game, and could come back to haunt them in January.

Monday night round up

Ok so It's time to check out my final pick from week 10: Ravens 16 @ Browns 0 : I just threw up a little on the carpet. I'm not ill & I'm not drunk (unfortunately). No, I've just been watching highlights that involved the Browns. I said last week that it doesn't matter if you use Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn, because the Browns receivers can't catch. What a surprise, Quinn goes 13/31 for 99 yards and 2 INTs. That's just repugnent. If I was a Browns fan I'd be disgusted. And I'd want Head Coach Eric Mangini's head. Mid-season coaching changes rarely turn out well, but in this case it can only get worse if Mangini stays. Fire the guy and make Rob Ryan the temporary coach. But to be honest, the team that came out of this worse off is probably the Ravens. Their only offensive TD came because the Browns messed up their substitution. They got a TD on a pick and then a field goal to round it off. If that's all they can manage against the Browns, then they have problems. Big problems. Still, that win takes me to 11-4 for the week, 37-17 so far after 4 weeks of this. Time I think now, for some extra credit: Michael Turner (Falcons) -- Turned 9 carries into 111 yards. His ball security is solid. Best running back in the league right now. Jonathan Stewart (Panthers) -- Is supposed to be the slow and powerful one of the two Panthers RBs. On his touchdown run, he was gaining separation on the defenders. Channing Crowder (Dolphins) -- Likes to talk the talk, but can also walk the walk. 9 tackles and an interception against the Buccaneers. Ricky Williams (Dolphins) -- Picked up the slack after Ronnie Brown went down injured with 20 carries for 102 yards. Josh Freeman (Buccaneers) -- Nice throws and showed a physical side to his game running with the ball. Kellen Winslow II (Buccaneers) -- Great hands, great strength. I love watching this guy. Breet Favre (Vikings) -- Still the king of the QB position. Sidney Rice (Vikings) -- 7 catches, 201 yards. Just read that again. Yeah, he's good. Adrian Peterson (Vikings) -- Speed, agility, strength, determination. If he could just sort out his ball handling issues he'd unquestionably be the best football player in the NFL right now. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jaguars) -- Can't say enough about his heads up play at the end of the game. The guy is an all round beast. Mark Sanchez (Jets) -- Has somehow convinced the press and his coaching staff that he's a lot better than he really is. Maybe this should got to his agent? Jonathan Joseph & Leon Hall (Bengals) -- Make the list for the second week in a row as a pair. Along with the rest of the Bengals secondary they basically shut down one of the best passing attacks in the league right now. That's damn impressive. Steven Jackson (Rams) -- 26 carries, 131 yards and a TD. This guy makes the Rams look a hell of a lot better than they really are. Would probably have a Superbowl ring by now if he was playing anywhere else. Vince Young (Titans) -- Over 200 yards and a TD throwing, running the option and making blocks for Chris Johnson. Someone wants to keep their starting job real bad. I really like Vince Youngs attitude. Fred Jackson (Bills) -- Did nothing special running the ball, but that TD pass on a wildcat play was pinpoint. This guy should be the starting QB. He couldn't do any worse down in Buffalo. Terrell Owens (Bills) -- 3 catches, 85 yards. The guy still has it, even if the Bills refuse to throw him the ball. Chris Johnson (Titans) -- Over a 100 yards rushing and then another 100 receiving. This guy is the reason why the Titans were so good last year. Todd Yoder (Redskins) -- Taking a break from his Star Wars obligations to fill in for the injured Chris Cooley. Caught a TD pass. He's one to maybe keep an eye on as he finds his slot in this offense. Brian Dawkins (Broncos) -- 12 tackles + 2 assists. Great Player. JaMarcus Russell (Raiders) -- What? 8 completions out of 23 attempts is pretty good by his standards.... Kirk Morrison (Raiders) -- Who? 10 tackles and a forced fumble, that's who. Chris 'Beanie' Wells (Cardinals) -- When you're a running back that hits and knocks over opposition linebackers, you deserve all the credit you get. Antrel Rolle (Cardinals) -- 9 tackles and 1 INT, came out of the shadow of Adrian Wilson a little in this game. Charles Woodson (Packers) -- 8 tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack, 1 interception, 2 forced fumbles, and a partridge in a pear tree. Donovan McNabb (Eagles) -- 450 yards passing exactly. Even with 2 TD's tagged on they still couldn't win the game. LaDanian Tomlinson (Chargers) -- 24 carries, 96 yards. It's nothing special. But it's a warning shot. Listening to Tomlinson's comments about his newly pregnant wife and the way he talks about his game, I think he's getting ready to lower his pads and start being the old LT again. Kevin Faulk (Patriots) -- He may be 33 years old but he spanked team mate Laurence Maroney for rushing this week. Chad Simspon (Colts) -- Made a case for replacing Joseph Addai. Sebastian Vollmer (Patriots) -- The reason Dwight Freeney recorded no tackles, no assists, no sacks, nothing. Dominated the Colts pass rusher.

NFL week 10 round up

Ok, Sunday is done and dusted, it's time to look back at how my picks have worked out so far this week. Obviously I've already covered the Bears @ 49'ers earlier in the week, which puts me at 1-0 to start with 13 games to look at today. Lets get cracking: Falcons 19 @ Panthers 28 : I don't know if anyone has caught on yet, but I hate the Panthers. Every week, no matter which way I pick their game, they'll always do something to mess it up and cost me. This week they ran the football well and only took passes at choice moments. Just as they did last season. Just as they should have been doing this season. To cap it all, Falcons RB Michael Turner racks up 111 yds off just 9 carries... then promptly gets injured, just to make sure the Panthers get the win. Curses. 1-1 Buccaneers 23 @ Dolphins 25 : The big news as far as Miami is concerned is the loss of Ronnie Brown. Luckily for them they handily have another RB who is just as good, if not a little better, in Ricky Williams. If Brown is out for any extended period of time, expect Miami to drop the traditional 'Wildcat' in favour of the option type plays they've been running with Pat White/Ricky Williams. Tampa nearly clawed their way back into this one and the improvement they've shown on offense lately will set them in good stead. Josh Freeman showed some nice touch on his passes. 2-1 Lions 10 @ Vikings 27 : Don't be fooled by the scoreline. Adrian Peterson had 133 yards & 2 TDs rushing off just 18 carries and Favre went 20/29 for 344 yards and a TD. Sidney Rice caught just 7 passes but notched up 201 yds. Detroit continues to struggle, and as we head into the dark days of winter with it's unco-operative weather, 51 pass attempts by a rookie QB are not going to reap success. 3-1 Jaguars 24 @ Jets 22 : Adrian Peterson may be fast and probably one of the most determined RB's in the NFL right now, but he's not the best. His ball handling is too dodgy. So who might take that accolade as best back? Maurice Jones-Drew has a big time shot at that. His production in this game doesn't immediately jump off the page; 24 carries, 123 yards and 1 TD. But he showed his all round game today as time ticked away at the end of the game, by taking a knee just shy of the endzone when the Touchdown was there for the taking. The Jags put away the field goal and that was that. Great play. But the Jets hardly did themselves any favours. They will insist on trying to get Sanchez to make big plays through the air, despite a first class ground game. This time it cost them two picks. 4-1 Bengals 18 @ Steelers 12 : According to the NFL.com recap on this game, online fans have rated it's memorableness (is that even a word?) as 75/100. There's either a lot of comedians living in the two cities, or someones fingers slipped. 8 field goals between them, the only touchdown coming on a 96 yd kickoff return by Bengals RB Bernard Scott. With Cedric Benson out the Bengals turned to Scott to power their running game and the inevitable happened; The Steelers shut down the Bengals run, while the Bengals shut down the Steelers passing. This is a big win for the Bengals who now move to 7-2 and top their division. The biggest blow the Steelers suffered here was safety Troy Polamalu tweaking his knee injury again. I imagine they're keeping their fingers crossed he'll recover quickly. 5-1 Saints 28 @ Rams 23 : Earlier I said I hate the Panthers. I think I hate the Saints even more. Actually, that's not true, I hate the fact they keep winning. This week I'll let it pass because I picked them in this game. But I just know that for the next week I'm going to have to listen to more endless bile about how great the Saints are and how masterful they are and how everyone thinks they're a lock for the Superbowl. Let's look at the facts here. They beat the Rams, a terrible side, by just 5 points. And even then, watching replays of Reggie Bush's second TD it's debatable whether he got the ball in before his leg touched the ground. I just know that the Saints are gonna play a solid team down the stretch (New England in a few weeks) and bomb. Still, can't complain, 6-1. Bills 17 @ Titans 41 : Chris Johnson is a beast, posting over 100 yards rushing and another 100 receiving. I thought it was interesting to see Vince Young running option football, mainly as I said last week about Miami, because for years we've been adamantly told by analysts that NFL defenses are too quick for the option to work. Yeah, right. It was also funny and refreshing to see a QB blocking. And by blocking I mean properly lowering the shoulder and hitting someone. Nice. The Titans secondary also looks like it's old self again. Could they go 10-6? No, surely not...... 7-1. Broncos 17 @ Redskins 27 : Having bigged up the 'Skins secondary so much this week it was amusing to watch them get completely burnt as they left Brandon Marshall (only the Broncos best WR) open and uncovered down the field twice. But football is a funny old game and just before half time Kyle Orton went down injured. Enter Chris Simms from stage left, who threw 13 passes and completed just 3 for 13 yards and 1 INT. At least Knowshon Moreno got things going on the ground, falling (literally) just three yards shy of a 100 yard day. And without Clinton Portis in the line up, Washington's rushing attack fell on the shoulders of Ladell Betts whose running style I admired last week. He carried the ball 26 times and notched up 114 yards. Go me. 8-1. Chiefs 16 @ Raiders 10 : Another RB that I had an eye on this week was Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles. 18 carries, 103 yards, 1 TD. Ahhh I'm good! But to be fair, it's against the Raiders, so take it with a pinch of salt. Nice to see JaMarcus Russell completing just 9/24 as usual. One day the Raiders will realise that he's a waste of roster space and dump him. Question is, who'd be stupid enough to pick him up? (Browns. I'm not kidding....) 9-1. Seahawks 20 @ Cardinals 31 : So you're ahead by 14, time to break out the run game a little yeah? Not if you're Seattle. 52, I say 52, passes by Hasselbeck. Credit to Justin Forsett though. On his meager pickings of just 17 carries he clocked 123 yards and a TD. Sadly the Cardinals running game is just finding itself of late and produced 2 touchdowns, in addition to two more through the air. I have to hold my hands up on this one, taking the Seahawks was stupid. 9-2. Cowboys 7 @ Packers 17 : Would you believe it? Them ****ing Packers just had to go and fix all their problems at once against a team that's about to go on a downward slide. Someone obviously tapped Aaron Rodgers on the shoulder mid week and said "you do realise on a 5 step drop, you have to throw after the 5th step?" "Oh really?! Thanks! Now I understand why I've been hit more times Mike Tyson!" And sure enough, Rodgers only got sacked 4 times! Which for him at least, is progress. Meanwhile, every week Dallas continues to forget just a little bit more about their potentially excellent rushing attack. And Tony Romo forgets that he's the QB and thus the leader of the offense, not whoever is the latest person to be crying in the media about not getting enough throws (*cough* Roy Williams). As a result, Romo isn't looking for his primary play maker Miles Austin anywhere near enough, and Jason Witten has seen his production drop as well. It's the same old problems in Dallas. And it's not helped when the Packers figure out that switching from a 4-3 defense to 3-4 defense is mainly done to help you bring more unpredictable 5 man blitzes. As a consequence, I'm now 9-3. I think I hate Dallas as well now. Eagles 23 @ Chargers 31 : But not as much as I hate the Eagles. Tomlinson remembered how to run just as the Eagles pass rush forgot how to sack. Classic. McNabb must be going nuts. 35/55 for 450 yards and 2 TDs and he still lost. Brian Westbrook must be going nuts that he only got 6 carries. LeSean McCoy must be going nuts because he's proved he's better than Westbrook and he only got 3 carries. Leonard Weaver must be going nuts because he's pretty darn good himself and he only got 2 carries. Eagles fans must be going nuts that their team combined for just 13 rushing attempts. And finally, Norv Turner must be going nuts because it takes his team half the season to get into stride, despite having the easiest, most common sense and most legible playbook in the NFL (I've seen one of his Washington playbooks. Apparently little has changed). 9-4. Patriots 34 @ Colts 35 : I sat down with a cup of coffee this week and prepared myself for what was being billed as the 'Rivalry of the Decade'. Sadly the game lacked any real animosity, emotion or conflict. What it didn't lack for though was some great football. I can honestly say this is one of the best games I've seen in a long time, if not ever. The tight scoreline tells you everything you need to know. But it has to be said, even though I picked the Colts, they were extremely lucky. With just over two minutes remaining the Patriots went for it on 4th and 2, up by 6 on their own 28. And got stopped. There was a case for challenging the play, but Bellichick was worried about burning his only remaining timeout. And that was crucial. They turned the ball over and the Colts drove to the endzone, scoring on a pass to Reggie Wayne, burning all but 13 seconds off the clock on the way. It's stunning that the Patriots managed to burn timeouts so ineffectually in the second half. And it cost them. In a typically high flying game, Brady threw 29/42 for 375 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT. Manning went toe to toe with his opposite number throwing 28/44 for 327 yards, 4 TD's and 2 INT's. And to be honest, it could have been comfortable if the Colts rookie wideouts hadn't dropped so many passes. It was no surprise that for the final throw Manning went back to Reggie Wayne (10 catches, 126 yards, 2 TD's), who was his most (read: only) reliable receiver, with Dallas Clark drawing heavy coverage. The big surprise for the Colts was on defense, as Dwight Freeney licked his chops at the thought of facing rookie LT Sebastian Vollmer..... only to get dominated by the German native pretty much single handed all through the game. Though Robert Mathis stepped up a few times, the Colts badly need to find new ways to bring pressure and also need to find a run game, though Chad Simspon looked sprightly on his 4 carries (and Donald Brown was woeful on his 4). The Patriots just need to keep being themselves. They really were the better team on the day and were incredibly unfortunate not to win this one. I can see a re-match coming in January. 10-4 So that's me done for the weekend. Tomorrow night the Ravens travel across to Cleveland for a Monday Night clash, in which I'm backing the Ravens. Might as well call it 11-4 for the week then. That's more like it. That takes me to 37-17 over the 4 weeks I've been picking. Not bad. Still annoyed that some slipped through my fingers though. Anyway, tomorrow I'll recap the Ravens/Browns game (Might as well do it now. The Ravens won by over 30 points and Ed Reed had a pick 6) and I'll also be dishing out my extra credit for week 10. And as always if you enjoy the blog (you know you do) feel free to tell as many people as humanly possible about it.

Rushing for a Great Defense

As a 49'ers fan, I'm always interested when the name Josh Morgan pops up. By all accounts, the 2nd year wide out has excelled in training and could have a good future ahead of him. Which is why I was a little annoyed that Crabtree waltzed straight in after his holdout and took the starting job from Morgan. Yes Crabtree is good, but I don't like the message it sends to the team. Well, now Morgan gets a shot again as Issac Bruce has suffered an ankle injury, which is why he missed Thursdays game against the Bears and now Morgan has been promoted to a starting job. I think this can only be a good thing for the 49'ers. Now that's not a knock on Bruce. I still think he's a good player. But the trouble is the QB's in San Fran' dont seem too keen on passing to the guy. This means Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree get all the attention, and consequently, all the coverage. Hopefully Morgans appearance will balance the receiving corps out and create opportunities for the other guys. But the fact that I'm talking about this at all makes me very surprised. When Mike Singletary was announced as head coach, it was made reasonably clear that he was looking to run the football and play great defense. When he hired Offensive Co-ordinator Jimmy Raye from the Jets (where he was a running backs coach) it was made very obvious that the 49'ers were going to run the ball and play great defense. And yet this year, it's been pass happy all the way. Now, that's worked ok, it's scored touchdowns, but it does kind of smack me a little of stupidity by not using the best offensive asset; pro bowl caliber RB Frank Gore. But what's more intriguing for me right now is the phrase that I used twice above; "... run the football and play great defense." What is is about running the football so much that intrinsically lends itself to great defense, or vice versa? Well I'll tell you what, I've got some spare time so we'll have a look and see shall we? The draft: To throw the football a lot and be a pass orientated offense you need three things: 1) An intelligent and quick thinking QB who can read coverages, make the right decisions, and throw the full range of passes. 2) A big left tackle, with quick feet and great pass protection technique. 3) A standout WR with great hands, speed, and route technique. To get those elements you're going to need to pick high in the draft (usually) or trade high picks for quality talent. This is especially true for the left tackle, as there's not many big guys with sufficiently nimble feet. That means that your defense plays second fiddle. They'll have to wait to get corners, linemen and linebackers, usually resulting in a reduction in quality. Conversely, to run the football a lot you need three different things: 1) A solid RB tandem. Usually one guy who is smaller and quicker, and a larger guy who has more power. There are some backs that can do both (e.g. Maurice Jones-Drew). 2) An offensive line built more for push than fancy footwork. 3) A QB who is good enough to punish defenses for playing consistently with 8 in the box. To get those elements you can pretty much scoop up any two RB's in the draft. Seriously, high picks will probably be better in overall quality, but the gulf in talent is no where near what it is for some other positions. The offensive line requires big guys. Quick feet and technique are still important, but not nearly as much as they are for pass protection. And the QB need not be a stunner. He'll probably be doing a lot of play faking and quick throws, but he's not going to see anywhere near the amount of diverse coverages that a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning would. You can dip lower, much lower, for these players. That leaves your high end draft picks free to go after stellar pass rushers, run stoppers, or shutdown corners. Your defense gets the better end of the talent stick. If you're trading or dipping into free agency, you can spend much more of your salary cap on top defensive guys, now that you're not splashing out high end money for two of the most expensive positions in football (QB & LT). The Clock: So it's game day, you're ready, all your new draft picks have been slotted into place. You look across the field and standing their is one of the best offensive units in the land. They can't wait to hit the field and post gaudy numbers against you. What are you gonna do about it? The simplest answer is, don't give them the ball. Run it, build a drive that chews half a quarter off the clock and then score. By running the football you keep the clock ticking. The more it ticks, the less time there is for the opposition to play offense. Less time = less plays. Less plays = less gains. This is kind of the old argument about statistics. The sheer fact that your opponents don't have a sufficient number of snaps to post 300 yards passing means that your defense will appear statistically superior against the pass compared to some other teams. And without as many snaps, teams tend to lean on their pass game for fear of falling behind. This exposes the QB to sacks and interceptions, with every incompletion boosting the defensive stats further. In addition, your defense gets more time on the sideline when you control the ball, allowing those excellent, if a little overweight, pass rushers to get some much needed rest (and oxygen). The Turnovers: We're talking both offensive and defensive here. Your high round defensive draft picks should be better at creating turnovers. They should force more three and outs, forcing the opposition to punt (essentially a turnover on downs. Of sorts). But more importantly here is how offensive turnovers affect your defense. The reality is, teams generally throw more interceptions than they have lost fumbles. Running the football simply doesn't turnover the ball as much. That means less extra possession's handed to the opposition, which your defense would otherwise have to face. But even more critically here, most fumbles are recovered near the spot of the original fumble. The field position change is usually very little (but not always, fumbles do get returned for touchdowns). When balls are intercepted however, you tend to get much bigger changes in field position and a higher incidence of touchdown returns. And it's the field position that hurts your defense the most. It instantly gives the opposition a shorter field with a better chance of scoring. Again this another stat linked situation. Your defense concedes more touchdowns/field goals in a game than it's really worth. In addition to the three above there are two other factors that I think are important, but these are mainly subjective factors and as such there are no real stats that we can look at to prove or disprove them: The Motivation: A primarily run based offense is not going to produce 5 or 6 touchdowns a game. Not unless the opponent is really bad (*cough* Browns). Therefore I think mentally as a defensive player, you have to appreciate that the offense will not bail you out if you make a mistake. In your mind, you must understand that a lot hinges on your ability to carry out your role effectively. I think this extra motivation helps push defensive players to excel. The Coach: This one is very subjective. But chances are, if you're a very run minded Head coach, you're also a bit more conservative. This is likely to spill into your defense, especially if your the co-ordinator. That means you're unlikely to take some of the big chances that you see aggressive defenses take.... ones which often get exploited for big gains. Your more likely to sit back, stifle the offense, and wait for it to make mistakes of it own, and take only calculated risks at the appropriate moment. You give up less big plays, your defense gives up less points. So there we have it, my take on why running the football and playing great defense are so often linked together. I could be wrong, I could be half right. Use your noggin and make up your own mind.

Week 10 NFL picks

Another week, another round of picks. Last week I was 8-5 which takes my tally over the three weeks I've been doing this to 26-13, which is exactly a .666 percentage. Maybe the devil is guiding me? Doubt it. I took the 49'ers for last nights game so I'm already 1-0 this week, not a bad start. I'd also like to do a bit of boasting. I was reading the latest article by NFL Network analyst Jason La Canfora, who gave some credit to Cowboys DT Jay Ratliff for his recent work, something I did a few days ago. He also wondered what has happened to Marvin Harrison and why no one has taken him... as I did last week. And he was 6-7 in his picks last week, compared to my modest 8-5. I should get paid for this blog..... So anyway, here's my picks for week 10 of the 2009 NFL season: Falcons@ Panthers : Both teams can run the ball hard. Both teams have dubious defenses. Carolina is just starting to realise again that DeAngelo Williams gives them their best chance of winning. Atlanta is just starting to remember that plenty of carries for Michael Turner opens up defenses for their dangerous pass attack. With Williams, Jonathan Stewart and TE Dante Rosario all not fully fit, questions have to be asked about the Panthers offense. The bait of a weak Falcons secondary may prove too tempting for Carolina, encouraging them to ask QB Jake Delhomme to throw the football more. That will only result in trouble. I think the Falcons have better weapons on both sides of the ball. Falcons win. Buccaneers@ Dolphins : The Bucs' are coming into this game after their first win of the season and a pretty good game by their rookie QB Josh Freeman. The Dolphins meanwhile are gonna be frustrated at losing a game to the Patriots last week which was tighter than many expected. The Dolphins have just unveiled a new wrinkle to their 'Wildcat' offense, with QB Pat White running College style option plays with the assistance of Ricky Williams. The question is this; can the Dolphins play sufficient ball control offense to force the Bucs' rookie Freeman into making desperation plays against the Dolphins rookie corners? I think they can. I'm backing the Dolphins for the win. Lions@ Vikings : What the Lions really need right now to help turn them around is to travel to Minnesota and play the Vikings. In the same way that what I really need right now is a pair of boxer shorts made from molten lava. Complete the film title: Texas Chainsaw ________ ? Do that and you get all the summary you'll need for this game. Favre is nursing a groin injury but he has stated to the press that he doesn't think it'll be an issue. Even if the guy had no legs he could still beat the Lions. Look for Jared Allen to also push up his numbers this week. Vikings win. Jaguars@ Jets : This is a three man tag team contest. It's Mark Sanchez, Thomas Jones and Shonne Greene versus David Garrard, Maurice Jones-Drew and Rashad Jennings. Both teams have plenty of production on the ground, the question is, who can do it through the air. Neither Sanchez nor Garrard has consistently produced this year. Both have had their highs, but both have had their lows as well. Sanchez has the better receiving corps, but will his inexperience compared to Garrard work against him? I think so. It's a tight pick, but I'm leaning towards the Jags. Jaguars win. Bengals@ Steelers : The AFC North could largely hang on this game. That's quite a statement, but it will affect tie breaking decisions at the end of the season, which could happen in a very tight divisional race. Both teams are sitting pretty as of late. Both teams have the potential to air the ball out for big gains, and to drive the ball hard on the ground for tough yards. Defensively, they both bring great pressure up front and they both have constrictive secondaries. The Steelers however are better at stopping the run. And more importantly, they have Troy Polamalu back, someone who was absent in the previous meeting this season between these teams. It's a real tough one. There are plenty of reasons why each team could win this game. Ultimately though, I think there are two things that swing it. 1) Roethlisberger likes to buy time in the pocket, move around, and give his receivers a chance to get wide open (by NFL standards anyway). Against the Bengals fast pass rush, I can't see that strategy working. 2) The Steelers will probably try and double Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco. That's going to open up plays downfield for Laveranues Coles and Andre Caldwell. Keep and eye on Caldwell in particular. Palmer likes finding him for last minute, game winning touchdowns. Bengals win. Saints@ Rams : Complete the film title. Texas Chainsaw ________? Yes folks, remarkably enough, I'm going with Saints. Having backed them to fall flat on their faces for three weeks running, I can't possibly contemplate going against them in this one. The Rams are too bad, they're too good. The only last ditch hope that the Rams have is to give the ball to Steven Jackson, chew a ton of clock, get some scores, and hope their defense can hold New Orleans to something like less than 20 points. So like I said, Saints are gonna win. Easily. Which knowing my luck, probably means the Rams will shock everyone..... but I severely doubt it. Saints win. Bills@ Titans : Simply put, the Bills rank dead last against the run. And I mean dead last. They even surpass the Browns for the poor quality of their run defense. And on the other side of the ball? The Titans are second only to the Jets in total rushing yardage and lead the league in average yards per carry, rushes over 20 yards (13) and rushes over 40 yards (6). There is little doubt that the Titans will grind out the Bills, with Buffalo having little to come back with in terms of offense. And so the hopes of the men in red and blue will fall squarely on the shoulders of rookie safety, Jarius Byrd. If he can pick off a couple of Vince Young passes, then maybe the Bills can squeeze their way back into this game. But don't count on it. When he's on form, Young is one of the most accurate and safe passers in the league. I'm going with Tennessee on this one. Titans win. Broncos@ Redskins : Another battle that doesn't seem as clear cut as you might expect. The Redskins D ranks 6th best in te league for total yards against and number 1 for passing yards allowed per game. That means Randy Orton and company will likely have a tough time throwing the ball against a reasonably tight defensive unit. The trouble as far as Washington is concerned starts when their offense gets the ball back. They rank 24th in total yards per game and 29th for points scored. While Jason Campbell has been much maligned for his lack of production this season, the reality is that the Redskins have three times as many touchdowns via passing as they do rushing (9 vs. 3). The Redskins simply can't run the ball, especially down in the red zone. The Broncos however aren't much better. They match Washington for passing touchdowns, while putting just one extra rushing touchdown on the board. It really is set to be a low scoring, slug it out battle. While I think the Broncos might lead the sack tally by the end of the game, I think the Redskins will lead the interception tally. Redskins win. Chiefs@ Raiders : Blurgh!! For those of you who have to watch this bile on telly, I'll be thinking of you. Damn, this is one nasty game. The Raiders are hopeless. Since picking up Chris Chambers off waivers (formerly of the Chargers), the Chiefs are now a little less hopeless. Also, look for sophomore RB Jamaal Charles (29 carries, 152 yds) to step up into the breach created by Larry Johnsons departure. He and Kolby Smith could breath a new lease of life into this team. Maybe. Chiefs win. Seahawks@ Cardinals : Oh my. The Seahawks can't defend the pass too well. The Cardinals pass the ball about 80% of the time. That spells trouble. In great chunks. Last week, Kurt Warner threw 5 TD's against a poor Bears team. The only saving grace for the Seahawks is that Arizona has struggled at home and that their QB Matt Hasselbeck is supposed to be back now to full fitness. Oh, and the fact that the Cardinals pass defence is even worse than Seattle's. It's a sketchy pick this one, but I'm taking the Seahawks. Seahawks win. Cowboys@ Packers : What Aaron Rodgers really needs is a good rest. He needs to relax, and have a sack free game. Unfortunately the Packers entertain the Cowboys this week! That means DeMarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff will be out and about, inflating their season sack tallies handsomely this week (as did Jared Allen of the Vikings in his two games against the Packers). The sole shining light in Green Bay is that their defence isn't too shabby. Statistically speaking at least. But here's the problem, both with Green Bay and with Statistics in general. Three of Green Bays games so far have been against the Rams, the Lions and the Browns. The Browns scored just 3 points, the Lions none, and the Rams notched up 17. Either the Packers truly have a top 10 defence or they've just benefited from an easy (ier) schedule. Regardless, Cowboys win. Eagles@ Chargers : Hmm, toughie. But first a question. It's 4th down and less than a yard to go. You fancy a QB sneak will do it. Why in gods name would you come out in a 3 TE set? The QB, having received the snap, will pretty much just launch himself straight forward. The defensive ends have no chance of crashing down on the play in time. You're just inviting the defense to pile guys up over the center and stuff the play. At least try and spread the D a little. Anyway, like I said, toughie. I don't think the Eagles are as bad as some of their results this season make out. They haven't been playing to their full potential, but they should win this one. The Chargers are pretty much relying on Philip Rivers and I don't fancy him against a nifty Eagles pass rush. Eagles win. Patriots@ Colts : Even tougher. The Patriots injury list for this one is quite something. And the Colts play on both sides of the ball has been quite something as well. The Pats are ticking along just nicely, but you wonder how they'll match up against a fearsome pass rush from Dwight Freeney and some excellent play from the Colts rookie corners this season. I think Manning is the master right now and his greater spread of receivers will set him in good stead. Either way, this is going to be a fun game to watch, and I'm really glad I get the chance to watch it!! Albeit on TV. By no means a certain pick, but I think the Colts have enough to see off the Pats. Colts win. Ravens@ Browns : Complete the title of the film, Texas Chainsaw ________? Yeah I know, it's getting old, but I like it and it sums up this one perfectly. As if the Browns didn't have enough to worry about already, expect Ray Rice to inflict more heavy damage on their already brittle confidence. Brady Quinn will start for the Browns, but as I explained yesterday, I don't think it'll help them much. Ravens win. So there we have it, all my picks for week 10 of the season. There's 15 games in total, so 15 wins up for grabs. With one already played yesterday I'm 1-0 this week. Let's see if I cant push that win column into double figures.

Derek Anderson. It's not his fault!!!

Thursday night football is done, which means it's time to look at my pick: Bears 6 @ 49'ers 10 : Ugly game of football. As predicted, the 49'ers pulled it off and, as predicted, Gore went over 100 yds (though the 150 possibility now looks extremely optimistic). Jay Cutler threw 5 picks, which pretty much was all that divided the two teams. In fact without those you'd be forgiven for thinking that the Bears would have dominated this game. The 49'ers produced just 216 yards of net total offense. That's poor. 53 offensive plays produced an average of just 4.1 yards per play. The strength is definitely in the defence, but that offense is pretty bad. What's more, the 16 completions (of 23 pass plays) produced just 118 yds. I still don't get it. You've got Frank Gore. Singletary said he likes to run the ball. So run it! The Bears meanwhile hate running. They elected for 52 passes out of 73 offensive snaps. It produced 307 yards..... and 5 turnovers. Two unexciting teams had an unexciting duel and one just barely managed to scrape it's head over the parapet. 'Grats to my 49'ers. May we hope to one day score a few more points. And having dished out some late extra credit to Jay Ratliff for his performance against the Eagles, I'm gonna give some to Greg Cosell, film analyst for NFL.com's "Anatomy of a play". Some of you may remember I bashed Greg and his crew a few weeks ago for heaping praise on Tony Romo, Miles Austin & the Cowboys coaches after what was essentially just a mistake by the Falcons D. Well, they had another Romo to Austin "anatomy" this week (the late TD from Sunday night), and surprisingly they pretty much hit the nail on the head. The Eagles D just executed their assignments poorly and were punished. But I'm still gonna nit pick. They mentioned Romos excellent pump fake and how it fooled the defenders etc. The dude just twisted his shoulders a little...... Cleveland Browns!!!! Bet you're excited now aren't you? Well, as promised, I'm going to try and convince you that Derek Anderson is not a bad QB. Because he's not. Ok, stop laughing. Yes, very funny. But I'm serious. Derek Anderson is not that bad and replacing him with Brady Quinn will not solve the Browns offensive woes. It's simple. Their receivers cannot catch. And I don't just mean the odd moment of butter fingered silliness, I mean a chronic lack of receiving ability. The Browns rank 31st for total team receptions, only superior to the miserably bad Oakland Raiders. When you look at their completion percentage, it's dead last. 48.1% Blurgh!!! (We (who's we?) interrupt this blog post to point out that the bottom 10 teams in completion percentage this season are, from worst to best (haha) : Browns, Raiders, Buccaneers, Jets, Lions, Titans, Rams, Chiefs, Bills, Panthers. They combine for a win-loss record of 19-61. The top 10 teams are from best to worst: Steelers, Colts, Saints, Vikings, Texans, Patriots, Cardinals, Ravens, Redskins, Broncos. That includes the only two undefeated teams in the league, and they combine for a joint record of 57-24, with 14 of those losses (over half) divided among just three teams. Not a bad stat for looking for winners. Though like all stats, not perfect either.) The reality is that if your wideouts can't catch the ball, your QB will look like an idiot and your team will suffer. Now contrast this if you will to 2007. In addition to Anderson, four names repeatedly crop up: Jamal Lewis, Braylon Edwards, Joe Jurevicius and Kellen Winslow II. Jurevicius caught 50 balls for 614 yards and 3 TD's. Edwards caught 80 balls for 1,289 yards and 16 TD's. Winslow caught 82 balls for 1,106 yards and 5 TD's. Lewis had 298 carries for 1,304 yards and 9 TD's and contributed another 3 TD's as a receiver. Edwards is now with the Jets. Jurevicius is lingering in free agency. Winslow was shipped out to Tampa. Lewis is retiring at the end of the year. All of Clevelands decent pass assets are gone and Lewis can't carry this team at his age. The Browns leading receiver this year is Mohamed Massaquoi. The rookie has caught 19 balls in 8 games. Derek Anderson is not the problem. Brady Quinn is not the problem. It is now apparent that the Browns simply lack the skills at the receiver position to catch balls. Brett Favre or Peyton Manning could walk onto this team right now and fail just as miserably. Good luck for the rest of the season Browns...... And as always, if you like the blog, spread the word. Ta.

Bears @ 49'ers

It's week 10 now of the NFL season, which signals the return of Thursday night football. And hosting the first of those Thursday night games? My very own 49'ers!!! And with the team sliding badly and in need of a win, I couldn't be more than happy that our visitors this week are the Chicago Bears. Here's my Thursday night game pick: Bears @ 49'ers: Last week the Bears gave up over 180 yds total rushing to the Arizona Cardinals. That on it's own should tell you every thing you need to know about this match up. The 49'ers run attack will be spearheaded as usual by Frank Gore. Expect Gore to get over 100 yds rushing, I think he might even go for 150. It all depends on the play calling. Which is what worries me the most. Now I like Alex Smith (I wanted him to start at the beginning of the season) and I like the way he's finding Vernon Davis (I'm a fan of TE's in general). I like the new receiver Crabtree and I like the way Gore is getting used in the pass game. But Mike Singletary wanted a strong rushing attack to complement his Defense. Frank Gore gives you that. But for some reason, the 9'ers just aren't using it. They routinely lean on the arm of the QB to win games, and as a result, I think they routinely sell themselves short. The trouble seems to be that after going three and out once with maybe just a few yards rushing, they then abandon the run. You've got to stick with it and actually give it a chance to work. Unless you're the current Chicago Bears, in which case your offensive line is more likely to get jointly elected to Congress than it is to hold it's blocks long enough for Matt Forte to get any production. Cutler is good, but he can't do it all alone. The Bears throw too much and the result is usually a host of picks. I can't look beyond the 49'ers for this one. 49'ers win. In other news, Brady Quinn has been announced as the starting QB for the Cleveland Browns (again) this week. The Browns will be appearing on Monday Night Football as they entertain the visiting Baltimore Ravens (Complete the title: Texas Chainsaw ________ ). And so in recognition of this prestigious event, tomorrow night I'm gonna attempt do the impossible. I'm gonna convince you that Browns QB Derek Anderson isn't all that bad. Wish me luck.

Boldin knows best

Another week of football passes and more controversy arises. Well, partial controversy. Cardinals wideout Anquan Boldin returned from his pre-game warm up against the Bears only to discover that his kit had been removed and he was listed as inactive for the game. Understandably, he wasn't too happy. Now I know a lot of people dislike Boldin and his attitude, but I'm not one of them. I think he's an awesome player. Very physical, very intelligent, very determined. The guy just wanted to play. He, like many others in the league, is extremely competitive. He just wants to go out each week and play ball. That's it. He was unhappy because he was denied the chance to compete. And no-one had the balls to go tell him, man to man, "you're not playing today". I sympathise with the guy. Look for him to get out of Arizona in the offseason. Whoever gets him gets one hell of an asset. Looking into the much nearer future, former Chiefs RB Larry Johnson has now been released onto waivers and apparently there is some interest in him. Really? I wouldn't touch the guy with a barge pole. He's old & he's struggling to make 3 yards a carry average. And he's obviously not a tight fit in the locker room, as his homosexual slurs against Chiefs coach Todd Haley have shown. This is one guy I wouldn't want to bring to my franchise. It just seems like bad news all the way. Apparently the Houston Texans don't feel that way. Personally, I think they're undervaluing Steve Slaton and Ryan Moats.... And I've noticed that the vultures of NFL commentary/analysis are circling over 49'ers QB Alex Smith, who apparently has developed a 'tendency' to turn the ball over this season. Has he? I'm pretty damn sure one of those picks he threw against the Texans was just a jump ball at the end of the game. They needed a play and no one made one. It's harsh to put that on the QB. As for last week against the Titans? I seem to remember two of the three picks being due to butter fingered receivers not making the catch. Don't write Smith off yet. And while we're on the subject of Smiths pick woes against the Titans, I noticed that on NFL Gameday's highlights the blame for one of the picks (where Crabtree failed to catch the ball and instead tipped it up for the INT) was instantly laid on Smith by.... Deion Sanders. Who happened to have a hand in Crabtrees negotiations. Now don't get me wrong, I like Deion. I think he's funny and adds entertainment value to the program. But I do get annoyed when he stubbornly defends his 'babies' by laying the blame that should be theirs at other peoples feet. And it's starting to drive me nuts hearing him shout 'pay the man!!' as if the only reason anyone in football ever tries hard is because of money and contract issues. Mind you, in some cases he's not far off.... And I'd also like to apologise to Jay Ratliff, NT for the Dallas Cowboys. Yesterday I missed him off of my list for Extra Credit, when he clearly deserved it (I was tired). He chalked up 5 tackles and 2 sacks, and will be a key to the Cowboys D this season. He gets pressure up the middle which helps to put QB's out of rhythm, and he draws attention and blocking away from DeMarcus Ware. Expect Ware's stats to spike up a little bit in the coming weeks until some team figures out the best way to stop both guys.

Week 9, extra credit.

The Monday night game is done, so it's time to check out my final pick: Steelers 28 @ Broncos 10: Steelers win which takes me to 8-5 for the week, drawn with last week. Not bad, but not great either. Which kind of sums up the day that the Broncos had and in particular Kyle Orton. 23/38 for 221 yards is pretty impressive. However, 3 INT's is not. Especially when Steelers safety Tyrone Carter returns one of his two for a TD. Roethlisberger was 21/29, for 233 yards. Crucially though he only threw one pick compared to 3 TDs. That, coupled with a great game from Rashard Mendenhall (22 carries, 155 yards) pretty much sealed the deal. And as I have some time to spare, let's just run back through the rest of the games from week 9: Redskins 17 @ Falcons 31: The injury to Jason Campbell plus Clinton Portis's concussion are worrying news for the Redskins. One high point however was the play of Ladell Betts. The 30 year old RB picked up 70 yards and a TD off 15 carries, but the main thing is he looked strong running with the ball. Unfortunately for the Redskins their D looked terrible when tackling. I repeat, terrible. No wonder Michael Turner got 166 yards and 2 TD's off just 18 carries. Cardinals 41 @ Bears 21: How do you bounce back from throwing 5 INT's? Easy, throw 5 TD's!! Which is just what Kurt Warner did against a bad Bears team. Most intriguing though was the Cards ground game, which produced a combined 182 yds off 31 plays. On the opposite side, Cutlers pass numbers were ridiculously good. Trouble is, their run game is appallingly bad right now. Ravens 7 @ Bengals 17: Neither team really lit things up offensively, but for the second time this year the Ravens gave up 100 yards rushing to Cedric Benson. In a tight game that proved decisive, as the Bengals secondary shut down Flacco and the much vaunted (at least this season) Ravens pass attack. Disappointed to see Ray Rice only get 12 carries to Flaccos 32 passes, though his 8 catches for 87 yards contributed well. Rice looks like a player that might just explode into stardom in the next few years. Texans 17 @ Colts 20: Houston fans rejoice. Ok, so you lost. But hey, you're in a very good place as a team right now. The amount of offense being generated is good, which means next years draft can be a bit more defense heavy, and if they find a sparkling pass rusher in there to help draw double teams away from Mario Williams, then it's all good news. As for the Colts, they look mean. Real mean. I like the way that they get Addai involved in the pass game as well, as he's a great player. And just for fun I noticed this comment from NFL analyst Bucky Brooks on the NFL.com box analysis; "The Colts used a surprising 'air-it-out' approach in the first half to get off to a quick start". Surprising to whom exactly? Your honor, the defence for why this blog is necessary rests it's case.... Chiefs 21 @ Jaguars 24: The Chiefs have a new toy in WR Chris Chambers, which may just help to draw some of the coverage away from Dwayne Bowe. All they need now is to find a rushing attack from somewhere. The Jaguars meanwhile lent on Jones-Drew and it paid off for them. Rookie Rashad Jennings also got 2 carries and picked up a TD to finish a nice run. With him to complement Jones-Drew, that could turn out to be a solid backfield pair that might draw some more 8 man fronts and give Garrard some throwing room. Dolphins 17 @ Patriots 27: Brady put up over 300 yards passing (again) as the Pats beat the Dolphins (again) in a contest that ended a lot closer than many people (including me) thought it would. Was funny to see Pat White running the option play, including a pitch to Ricky Williams for a 15 yard TD, bearing in mind that every NFL analyst that's ever lived swears that the Option would never work in the Pros because Defences are too fast (White also took one carry himself for 33 yards). Random irritations? The 'phins (fins?), not using the excellent Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams enough to run the ball from traditional sets. And while I remember, the Dolphins not using Patrick Cobbs (who was injured for the season in week 5) enough. He's basically been playing third string in his time at Miami, despite the fact that every time he's come on in the past for both the Dolphins and the Patriots (who originally drafted him), he's been fantastic. Look for someone to take him off their hands next year. Packers 28 @ Buccaneers 38: Holy crap. Green Bay has serious protection issues. Serious issues. But it's not all doom and gloom. The reality is that if they just ran a few more 5 step routes and asked Rodgers not to hold onto the ball so long they would actually have possibly one of the most dangerous passing attacks in the league. Their receivers are still some of the best for picking up Y.A.C. If their QB was Kurt Warner, they'd be on fire. But he's not, so they're not. As for the Bucs' they finally pick up a win. Josh Freeman looked impressive, so maybe Tampa has a future ahead of them as well. Panthers 20 @ Saints 30: In case I hadn't mentioned it over the last few weeks, I hate them Panthers. They're still chucking the rock 30 times a game while Williams gets just 21 carries. 5 fumbles is also not a good stat (two by Delhomme). And their defense ties Washington this week for worst tacklers. There were also times when Saints receivers were catching the ball, tucking it in anticipation of a big hit.. then looking surprised when they realised there was no-one near them yet. The Saints did well, but they still don't look like a match for some of the best teams out there. So far this season they've played (& beaten), in order; The Lions, The Eagles (who were missing McNabb), The Bills, The Jets, The Giants (who've been abysmal this season against any half decent opposition), The Dolphins (who essentially took the game in the the 1st half and then kindly handed it back to the Saints in the second half), The Falcons (1 missed penalty away from a tie), and the Panthers (blurgh!!). Next they have the Rams and the Bucs (holy sh*%), but then it starts to get interesting. The Patriots in week 12 & the Cowboys in week 15 (though that's December so we can't count on Romo yet). Other than that their schedule is pretty easy (Redskins, Falcons, Bucs, Panthers). So there's a good chance they might go 14-2..... then crash out when they play a decent team in the playoffs. Lions 20 @ Seahawks 32: 5 interceptions will not help rookie Matthew Staffords confidence. He just needs to dust himself down and strike that week off as a learning exercise. The fact that the Lions asked him to throw 42 times really doesn't help. Which is why Seahawks fans should also be worried. Hasselbeck threw 51 times. That's not good. Come December when it gets all wet and windy, that will lead to turnovers. Chargers 21 @ Giants 20: I'm a little annoyed that I lost this pick. Watching the film, turns out the Giants muffed the hold on a field goal. Complete that and it's 21-23 and I'm 9-4!! Still, 'grats to the Chargers. And while the Giants pass rush is disappearing rapidly, the Chargers pass rush is just starting to fire up. The Giants now go into a bye week with a lot to think about. They need to find their previously excellent rushing attack once more (for me this is the most frustrating thing in the NFL right now) and they need to work on their coverage schemes. They can bounce back. And the Chargers can still catch the Broncos. Titans 34 @ 49'ers 27: Probably the biggest thing that Vince Young has added to the Titans offense is to draw attention, whether warranted or not, away from Chris Johnson. Anytime you do that, you give the Titans a chance. On the other side of the field, Alex Smith threw 3 picks. But to be fair, a lot of that had to do with butter fingered receivers. Smith has been good. He's played well and is staring to lead this team offensively. But he needs help. And that means giving Pro bowl caliber running back Frank Gore more than just 15 carries (83 yds and 1 TD). Smith threw 45 times on Sunday. He's good, but he's not that good. Cowboys 20 @ Eagles 16: I had the pleasure of watching this one. I might as well have just gone to bed. It was nothing special. There are a few things that came out of the game which are worth noting. A) Eagles Head coach Andy Reid is drawing a lot of criticism for challenging the ball placement on two plays. Now to be fair, those decisions are not really in his hands. There are other people, usually in the press box, who watch the replays on a monitor and then tell him over the radio whether he should challenge or not. The mistakes are on them, not Coach Reid. B) Roy Williams bitched and moaned this week that he was still the number 1 guy in Dallas and that he wasn't getting favourable treatment from Romo. This week he got 5 catches (and a few more thrown his way) as Romo appeared to deliberately overlook other people in favour of Williams. That's not good. The Cowboys biggest threat at the moment is Miles Austin, who finally had one thrown his way in the 4th quarter.... and which he took for a 49 yard TD. If Romo is that easily swayed by pressure in the media, then bad things will happen for Dallas. C) When the Eagles are rushing as much as you and doing so for more yards, you have to worry. Marion Barber is a beast at RB, but he needs more carries. Right, that's the recap done. I think it's time for this weeks extra credit: Rashard Mendenhall (Steelers) -- 22 carries for 155 yards. Helps take the pressure off the QB and gives the Steelers a solid 4 minute offense to close out games. Troy Polamalu (Steelers) -- Made an important stop in the Broncos backfield, then comes right back on the next play for an interception. Brian Orakpo (Redskins) -- On a Redskins D that routinely fails to show up, registering 2 sacks is worth a mention. Good play by the rookie. Jonathan Babineaux (Falcons) -- 9 tackles & 2.5 sacks. Leading the Falcons D, and boy do they need it. Kurt Warner (Cardinals) -- You cant throw 5 TD passes and not make the list. Especially not when you threw 5 INTs the week before. Great comeback. Cedric Benson (Bengals) -- 117 yds wasn't the best tally among RB on the day. But against the Ravens each of those yards is more difficult to get. Benson will be key to Bengals playoff hopes this season. Andre Caldwell (Bengals) -- 3 catches for 15 yds and a TD? What's he doing here? He's the guy they go to when they need a clutch play. Jonathan Joseph & Leon Hall (Bengals) -- 2 INT's between them, but more importantly they shut down 'Air Flacco' this week. Matt Leinart (Cardinals) -- Came off the bench for 1 play and threw a pick. The reason Warners career has been so long and why he wasn't benched coming into this weeks game. Clint Session (Colts) -- 13 tackles, 1 INT. Big day on defence for the Colts. Mike Sims-Walker (Jaguars) -- 6 catches, 147 yards, 1 TD. The fact that he plays for the Jags makes that even more impressive. Randy Moss (Patriots) -- Said to Sims-Walker "anything you can do, I can do.... exactly the same" see above for his stats this week. Tracey Porter (Saints) -- 7 tackles and 2 forced fumbles. Still the real power behind the Saints secondary. Matthew Stafford (Lions) -- Was the best player on the field for the Seahawks. Darren Sproles (Chargers) -- For not bitching to the media that he's better than Tomlinson and deserves the starting job at RB, even though both are true. Cortland Finnegan (Titans) -- Returned recently from injury. Made 7 tackles, 1 assist and 2 INT's against the 49'ers. Patrick Crayton (Cowboys) -- 2 catches, 74 yards. 'nuff said. Miles Austin (Cowboys) -- Had to wait till the 4th to get a reception, then took it for 49 yards to the house. Maybe that will shut Roy Williams up. Marion Barber (Cowboys) -- For having the patience & professionalism not to follow the usual Dallas trend and starting bitching to the cameras when your talent goes unused for a bit. I'd trade for this guy. Ellis Hobbs (Eagles) -- Returned a kickoff for a touchdown only to have it scrubbed by a flag. Shame. The guy has awesome speed. Right, that's all the credit I can dish out for one night. Don't forget to spread the word if you enjoy the blog. I dunno, get on Facebook or Twitter or something. And if you have time (like, about 2 seconds) use the feedback option at the bottom of the post to help me keep track of what's good and bad.

My week 9 NFL picks after Sundays games.

I've now been awake for nearly 36 hours (just had to watch the Cowboys @ Eagles game), so I'll round off my picks for the weekend briefly. Remember that we still have one game to go tomorrow (Steelers @ Broncos) in which I'm taking the Steelers. So far this week I was 5-2: Panthers 20 @ Saints 30: I hate them Panthers. And them Saints. 5-3. Lions 20 @ Seahawks 32: Alright!!! 6-3. Chargers 21 @ Giants 20: I hate Norv Turners smug face so much right now. 6-4. Titans 34 @ 49'ers 27: Ass. 6-5. Cowboys 20 @ Eagles 16: A run of the mill game, not that exciting. Still, 7-5. That means I can match my performance from last week if the Steelers can (will) beat the Broncos tomorrow night. Sleepy, sleepy.