Wednesday. Booooo!!!!!

It's Wednesday, so expecting any great swathe of news is optimistic at best. Looking ahead at the week that will be, I'll be previewing this weekends games on Friday and Saturday, covering the one o'clock (Eastern) kick offs on Friday and the rest of the games on Saturday. Tomorrow I will..... think of some fantastically insightful article to write. Today however I have nothing to offer except a brain fart of the first degree. There is some hope thanks to ProFootballTalk.com. Two articles catch the eye: "Raheem Morris wants NFL to change blackout policy" -- And I agree. I've harped on this before. I find it stunning that a company like the NFL would be retarded enough to believe that keeping their product off air will somehow magically generate tickets. People don't like being punished into doing things. They don't like having their freedom of choice removed. Given the option of "watch football at the stadium or don't watch it at all" most people will stick two fingers up and tune in to something else. The blackout policy needs to go, hopefully with Roger Goodell following soon after. 'Roger Staubach thinks rules changes make NFL "a wussy game"' -- And I agree. Yes, concussions are bad. But concussions are what I would describe as an "occupational hazard". Fireman understand that they risk getting burnt to death, or at least seriously injured/maimed. Soldiers understand that they may get blown up, shot, or lose a limb in the blink of an eye. As a Bouncer (ahem, 'Door Supervisor') I used to go to work on the understanding that if someone didn't like me asking them to leave, they might just choose to smash a bottle or glass on the table and attempt to stuff what's left of it into my throat. Or they might come back later and stab me. Or they might follow me to my car/home and jump me, attempting to steal my property. Sometimes people just shouted bad words and made me cry (chortle). The point is that at any time I could have stopped and said "This s**t is laughed off, I'll stick to the day job," (and ultimately had to, to avoid losing said day job). Any one of those NFL Players can stop, whenever they want. Ex-49ers RB Glen Coffee decided God was calling him to a different path & off he went. Just like a boxer stepping into the ring, you have to be aware that your night on the football field could end with you lying on the floor wondering what the hell just happened. Players take that risk and get paid handsomely for it. Reasonable steps to protect players are fine. Helmets, pads, etc. But a line has to be drawn. At some point someone has to say "this is as safe as we're gonna make it. If you don't want to get hurt, don't play football." And it has to happen soon. If you make football into a non/little contact sport, people will fall away in droves. We know this because; a) flag football is not a nationally televised sport watched by over 100 million people, and b) neither is Arena Football. Have a great day everyone.

Monday Night Football recap

Just to start off I want to draw your attention to an article from the Associated Press that was posted on NFL.com. It's about female reporter Ines Sainz, who during a visit to the Jets facility - including their locker room - alleges that she was the recipient of various whistles and cat calls, and that when she was out observing practice on the field both coaches and players made an undue effort to throw the ball so that it would be caught near to where she was standing. Overall she is said to have felt "uncomfortable". Apparently the NFL is looking into it, but I really think someone should be looking into the Associated Press. As I read the article I encountered numerous instances of what I would consider to be selective reporting, designed to make Sainz appear as the type of lady who would encourage inappropriate attention. References are made to photos posted of her in swim wear on her Networks website and they make a point of ignoring any good/well known work she may have done with regards to football journalism in favour of mentioning the time she measured Steve Breastons bicep at the Super Bowl and the fact that she once mistakenly referred to the Giants as the Jets. If mistaking a teams name innocently - just a slip of the tongue/mind etc - is a sin, then every reporter who has ever worked in sports and every writer who has ever written about football is in the same boat. In my opinion - for what it's worth - the article was written in such a way as to portray Sainz in a bad light. And I'd expect much better from the Associated Press. And the NFL. Now, time to recap Monday nights games and see if I've recovered a morsel of hope in my picks: Ravens 10 @ Jets 9 -- Hmm, high scorer this one. And so much for the Jets Super Bowl bid. One loss doesn't preclude a team from winning the big one, but that offense sure does look shaky. In fact shaky is not the right word. Terrible would be the right word. They made the Browns look productive. Sanchez finished 10/21 for 74 yards. Jerricho Cotchery was their leading receiver with 18 yards from 2 catches. On the ground it was slightly more impressive. LaDanian Tomlinson carried 11 times for 62 yards, which is more than Ray Rice achieved for the Ravens with 21 carries (for 43 yards). Flacco in the end proved the difference, bouncing back from early mishaps to register 20/38 for 248 yards and an INT. Willis McGahee finally punched in the games only TD. Defense seemed to rule, mainly the Jets, as they struggled to keep "Air Flacco" grounded (Anquan Boldin finished with 7 catches for 110 yards). Leading the Jets was LB Bryan Thomas with 7 tackles, 2 assists and 1.5 sacks. DE Shaun Ellis came up with 5 tackles, 2 assists, a half sack and a forced fumble. Bart Scott (6 tackles, 3 assists, 1 forced fumble), Eric Smith (6 tackles, 3 assists) and Jim Leonhard (6 tackles) also did well.

For the Ravens the stats are low, but in a sense that's a good thing. It means they did the job effectively and didn't allow the Jets to put on many sustained drives. Terrell Suggs (4 tackles, 2 assists, a half sack and a forced fumble) and Haloti Ngata (3 tackles, 1 assist and a sack) are notable.

Chargers 14 @ Chiefs 21 -- I had some faith in the Chiefs. But after beating the Chargers, I now have less faith in them. This is caused by watching their defense play and realising that at times the Chargers receivers could have stood downfield swinging a ball and chain around their heads without any fear of ever hitting a Chiefs defender. Couple that with the Chiefs meagre tackling and it's nothing short of a miracle that they came away from this one with a win. Well, a miracle plus the longest punt return for a TD in team history. Plus triple covering Antonio Gates on the final play of the game. And that's the trouble with the Chargers. At times they breezed through the Chiefs defense like... me going through coffee. But then they got to the moment when it really counts with just 20 yards between them and a score and they bottled it. Philip Rivers ended the game with 22/39 for 298 yards and 2 TDs. Rookie running back Ryan Matthews (watch list) carried the ball 19 times for 75 yards, but it would appear the Chargers are still not prepared to let go of their passing game, even in the red zone. Legedu Naanee led all receivers with 5 catches for 110 yards and a TD. Chiefs QB Matt Cassel had a relatively dismal outing, ending 10/22 for 68 yards and a TD. Jamaal Charles demonstrated his burst in the open field, rushing for 92 yards and a TD off 11 carries, including a 56 yard scoot for the score. Defensively Chargers Safety Steve Gregory led his team in tackles with 7 and LB Shaun Phillips pitched in well with 5 tackles and a sack. For the Chiefs it was LB Derrick Johnson who stood out, with 11 tackles, an assist and a forced fumble. That then wraps up week 1 in the NFL, leaving me a craptacular 6/10 for my picks. Never fear, the season is young. And we've learnt... stuff. And this is the big problem with week 1. Do we really believe the Texans are going to spend the rest of the season as a rush first offense? Actually they probably will, just to spite me. I hate the Texans. Have a great day everyone.

Week 1 NFL round up

I was in a bad mood before. I didn't get to watch any of the games. Then I had a crappy day. Then I saw the scores. I don't believe it. It's recap time: Browns 14 @ Buccaneers 17 -- It's not often that you pick the Buccaneers and it pays off so I'm pretty ecstatic about this one. Well, as much as you can be over a Buc's/ Browns game. Delhomme lived up to form throwing two interceptions, one of which could be considered to have directly lead to a TD as Ronde Barber showed off his 35 year old legs on a return that fell just short of the end zone. Delhomme finished 20/37 for 227 yards and a TD in addition to those two picks. Bucs' QB Josh Freeman finished 17/28 for 182 yards and 2 TDs plus an interception. Cadillac Williams also helped the Bucs' offense with 22 caries for 75 yards and a score. Browns TE Evan Moore led all receivers with 3 catches for 87 yards. Defensively the Browns were led in tackles by DB T.J. Ward who posted 7 plus 3 assists and a forced fumble. Corner Mike Adams gets an honourable mention for his 5 tackles, 2 assists and an INT while LB Marcus Benard gets the same for his 1.5 sacks. The Bucs' were led by LB Barrett Ruud who had 7 tackles, an assist and a forced fumble while LB Geno Hayes did almost the same but without the forced fumble. Dolphins 15 @ Bills 10 -- I was almost there with the Bills. What makes this a truly bad result is that the Bills looked shocking from the video I've seen. Truly shocking. I'm talking blocking ineptitude (both pass and run) of unbelievable proportions. I would have hung my head in shame if I was a junior high line coach who had sent those men onto the field in that condition. So for the Dolphins to only win by 5 is not good. That is not the performance of a team that will challenge for the AFC East. The improvement had better be rapid and significant to off set such a shambolic display. Chad Henne finished 21/34 for 182 yards. And another thing. The organised media (as opposed to me being unorganised/unofficial) seem to be falling over themselves to talk up Brandon Marshall. 8 catches for 53 yards, including a drop despite being wide open is not the performance you expect from a man on his salary. And another thing (again). Given the quality of the 'Phins backs and how well they played, why give Henne 34 throws? Why tempt fate in such a tight game? Did they learn nothing from their loss to New Orleans last year? On the Bills side, Trent Edwards went 18/34 for 139 yards and a TD. But what about C.J. Spiller, your first round draft pick at RB? Seven carries? What the hell was the point? To be fair though, watching the way the Bills line blocked, it was a miracle that Marshawn Lynch was able to break the 15 yard run that proved to be the Bills longest of the day. Three sacks from the Dolphins D helped, including one from Koa Misi (watch list). Drayton Florence led the Bills in tackles with 9 plus an assist and credit to Bills LB Paul Posluszny for his 6 tackles, 2 assists and a sack. Bengals 24 @ Patriots 38 -- Don't let the score belittle how much of a game this was. The Patriots may have raced to an early first half lead, but the Bengals fought back. Subtract the pick six and the returned kick off (two things that happen infrequently and very randomly to teams) and you have a tied game. Take away Wes Welkers TD catch that never crossed the goal line and you have a Cincy win. This is what frustrates me sometimes about pundits. Ok, you've gotta cover kick offs better than that and you can't blame the Patriots for returning an interception to the end zone. But before checking out the highlights etc, I was led to believe by various game reports that this was some kind of domination show, that the Patriots first wiped the floor with the Bengals then dipped them in the bucket to have another go. That was not the case. Brady finished 25/35 for 258 yards and 3 TDs. Welker led the Pat's receivers with 8 catches for 64 yards and 2 TDs & Fred Taylor led the Pat's backs with 14 carries for 71 yards. Carson Palmer led the chase with 34/50 for 345 yards, 2 TDs and an 1 INT; an indication that the Pats defense had just as many holes in it as the Bengals. I also noticed that nobody was prepared to give Chad Ochocinco the credit he rightly deserves for his 12 catches for 159 yards and a TD. And this is before we even get to Jordan Shipley (watch list). Now yes I know Welker came back from a bad injury and yes he scored two (?) TDs (the first was off a 4 yard screen play that just wasn't covered by enough defenders). But do we really have to fill pages with effusive praise for him when Shipley went 82 yards off just 5 catches? I've already mentioned Ochocino as well. Where was his praise? Hidden under a thick wad of Patriot loving I'm afraid. Defensively there were a few standouts, which kind of defeats the point of being a stand out. For the Bengals it was LBs Keith Rivers and Dhani Jones with 7 tackles each and 3 & 2 assists respectively. The Patriots were led by DB Pat Chung with 12 tackles and 4 assists, followed by LB Jerod Mayo (8 tackles, 4 assists) and corner Darius Butler (8 tackles). Colts 24 @ Texans 34 -- I hate the Panthers because they always do the opposite of what I predict they will. This week however they actually did what I thought they would while the Texans defy me once more. I now hate the Texans more than the Panthers! But oddly I kind of like the Texans as well. I've always believed that if you give a good back 30 carries, he should be able to rustle up 250 yards of offense. The Texans went some way to proving that. They also proved that throwing the ball 50 times versus running it 40 times does not necessarily mean the passing team will win, which is good because it will annoy the hell out of football statisticians. And finally, they beat the Colts, so what's not to like about that. Peyton Manning went 40/57 for 433 yards and 3 TDs, which is still bloody impressive. Joseph Addai was granted just 10 carries by the Sheriff. Matt Schaub by comparison looked flat with 9/17 for 107 yards, a TD and an INT. But Texans running back Arian Foster stole the day, with 33 carries for 231 yards and 3 TDs. Not that you'd know that if you were watching the NFL.com version of the games highlights, which included Peyton Manning, more Peyton Manning, more Peyton Manning, and just 38 seconds of the game changing Foster. Defensively I should point out first that Bob Sanders decided to get himself injured and potentially put on the scrap heap for another year. Antoine Bethea ably stepped up with 8 tackles and 5 assists. DE Robert Mathis finished with 5 tackles and a sack. For the Texans it was LB Zac Diles leading the way (9 tackles, 3 assists) followed by LB DeMeco Ryans (8 tackles, 2 assists) and Safety Bernard Pollard (8 tackles, 1 assist). Broncos 17 @ Jaguars 24 -- Once again the heavens opened and did everything they could to try and stop people from being put through another Jacksonville game, but alas the show went on and my pick went up in smoke. David Garrard finished with 16/21 for 170 yards and 3 TDs, while Maurice Jones-Drew carried the ball 23 times for 98 yards (also a mention for Rashad Jennings who got his obligatory 4 carries in for 26 yards). Kyle Orton on the other hand was slinging it out, finishing 21/33 for 295 yards, a TD and an INT. Credit to Brandon Llyod for his 5 catches for 117 yards. LB D.J. Williams led the Broncos D with 9 tackles and 2 assists. LB Daryl Smith was the Jaguars stand out with 5 tackles, 2 assists, an INT and a Forced Fumble. Noteworthy as well was rookie DE Tyson Alualu (watch list) who registered a sack and Aaron Kampman who bagged 1.5 sacks. Falcons 9 @ Steelers 15 (OT) -- A boring exchange of field goals that must have left Atlanta fans wishing they'd got tickets to some other game, any other game. Even a Browns game. In the end it was an ok day for the quarterbacks. Matt Ryan finished 27/44 for 252 yards and an INT. Dennis Dixon went 18/26 for 236 yards and an INT himself. On the ground though Michael Turners 19 carries for 42 yards were not a match for Rashard Mendenhalls 22 carries, 120 yards and a game winning TD scamper in overtime. Defensively the very impressive LB Curtis Lofton led the Falcons (8 tackles, 3 assists and a sack). Keep your eyes out for Lofton this season. He was backed up by Safety Erik Coleman (7 tackles, 2 assists) and LB Sean Weatherspoon (watch list) (7 tackles, 1 assist). For the Steelers it was DB Bryant McFadden who led the way with 12 tackles and 2 assists. LBs Lawrence Timmons (9 tackles, 2 assists) and James Harrison (4 tackles, 5 assists and a sack) followed. Raiders 13 @ Titans 38 -- The Raiders were smoked by the team who I think (no Chris, don't do it) may possibly have (Chris... don't do it) the best shot (you know it never works out) at going to the Super Bowl for the AFC (Ahhh.. he did it) and may even (no... not that as well) go on (don't!!) and win the big one itself (now you've cursed them. A**clown). Vince Young finished with 13/17 for 154 yards and 2 TDs, but it was Chris Johnson who stole the show again for the Titans with 27 carries for 142 yards and 2 TDs. Jason Campbell could manage just 22/37 for 180 yards, a TD and an INT. More to the point, if Campbell keeps taking shots like he did in this game then he's going to be spending a lot of time sitting on the bench watching games with broken joints. The Raiders hardly had what I would call a stand out, though Kamerion Wimbley did ok with 4 tackles, an assist, a sack and a Forced Fumble. The Titans D cooked up 4 sacks with one being claimed by MLB Will Witherspoon (6 tackles and a sack). Watch for Witherspoon this year. Like Lofton in Atlanta he will be the glue that binds this defense. Safety Michael Griffin will be the child in the corner drinking the glue and going on a rampage collecting 10 tackles and 2 assists. Panthers 18 @ Giants 31 -- I don't hate the Panthers anymore. I cant. They did exactly what I expected they would. They believed all the hyperbole dumped on Matt Moore last year after having one good game (including numerous comments of the "he looked like a pro bowler" variety). Please explain then the 14/33 for 182 yards, one TD and 3 INTs against a defense not renowned for its ability to shut down the pass last year. Manning did better finishing 20/30 for 263 yards, 3 TDs and 3 INTs. Credit (and in this case blame) where it is due though, at least two of the Giants interceptions I've seen were caused by butter fingered receivers. Nice to see Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs put together 32 carries for a combined 120 yards and a TD. Two Panthers defensive standouts; LB Dan Connor (10 tackles, 3 assists, 1 sack) and James Anderson LB (7 tackles, 2 assists, and an INT). Safety Charles Godfrey gets an honourable mention for his 5 tackles, assist and 2 INTs. For the Giants the defensive highlights are; Antrel Rolle (7 tackles and an assist), Osi Umenyiora (4 tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble) and Mathias Kiwanuka (3 tackles, 1 assist, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble). Lions 14 @ Bears 19 -- This was a legit pick ruined by another of the more stupid rules in the NFL. The Lions left it late, but that catch by Calvin Johnson was good. I don't give a crap about all this "possession through the act of going to the ground" etc. He was on the ground. He had it plain and simple. As he gets up to turn away the ball clips the ground and comes loose. Now what happened to the ground not being able to cause a fumble? Anyway, Matthew Stafford took a big hit from Julius Peppers and will now sit for at least three weeks. Jahvid Best led the Lions on the ground with 14 carries for 20 yards and 2 TDs. Shame that such a talented young kid is not getting the work load he deserves. That's a problem Bears RB Matt Forte doesn't share. Only 17 carries on the ground for 50 yards, but 7 catches produced 151 yards and 2 TDs as the Bears finally found a way to get him the ball without being ploughed over immediately thanks to the Bears suspect O-line. I was surprised to see the Lions create 4 sacks on defense! Without doubt their leader was Kyle Vanden Bosch (10 tackles, 1 assist) supported by Safety Louis Delmas (8 tackles, 1 forced fumble) and Tackle Corey Williams (5 tackles, 1 sack). For the Bears it was Linebackers Lance Briggs (9 tackles, 1 assist, 1 forced fumble) and Brian Urlacher (who I didn't think was going to play; 8 tackles and a sack). Cardinals 17 @ Rams 13 -- Ahhh, again denied by the smallest of margins. Can I just thank the NFL Network once more for their judicious use of time by failing to include the Rams near fumble return for a TD in the highlight package. I guess they were finding more room for Peyton Manning or Tom Brady clips elsewhere in the show. And while I'm at it, the extended highlights featuring the radio commentary from the teams commentators is much better/more fun to watch than the crappy game day highlights. Anyway, back to the game. So you have a rookie QB and you want to nurture the kid, build him and his confidence up slowly right? Well in that case, try not having him throw 55 times in a game. 33 completions is good. 253 yards is good. The TD pass is good (literally). 3 INTs is BAD!! Mark Clayton looks like a peach of a trade for the Rams, costing them a 7th round pick to Baltimore. Clayton finished with 10 catches for 119 yards. Steve Breaston was the star of the show though. The Cardinals WR caught 7 passes for 132 yards (Derek Anderson; 22/41 for 297 yards, 1 TD) and was also the man who came roaring back down the field to strip the ball after a fumble that was nearly returned by Clifton Ryan for a TD. Great all round game. Defensively for the Rams credit goes to Safety O.J. Atogwe (8 tackles, 1 forced fumble) and Linebacker Larry Grant (4 tackles, 2 forced fumbles). For the Cardinals it was corner Greg Toler leading the team in tackles (13 tackles(!!) and a forced fumble) & LB Paris Lenon (7 tackles, 1 assist). Cardinals safety Adrian Wilson may have only clocked 2 tackles, but a sack and two forced fumbles is impressive once more from the Cardinals most under rated defender. Packers 27 @ Eagles 20 -- One mans loss is another mans gain. In this case lots of men lost (to injury) and others gained. Prime among them was Michael Vick, who walked on for the second half after Kevin Kolb went down with a concussion... and promptly blew away those in attendance with some mazy, speedy runs and some beautifully crisp passes. 16/24 for 175 yards and a TD, but he'll be remembered most looking back at this game for his 11 carries for 103 yards. Aaron Rodgers wasn't quite as athletic producing 9 yards off 5 carries, but he did throw 19/31 for 188 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs. For the Eagles D it was Trent Cole who predictably topped the charts with 6 tackles and a sack, but look out at the DE spot for Juqua Parker! Parker had 8 sacks last year, only to find out that he had potentially lost his spot to Brandon Graham. That is until Parker went out and produced two sacks against Green Bay last night. LB Clay Matthews stormed for the Packers D with 7 tackles, 2 sacks (of 5 Green Bay sacks on the night) and a forced fumble. 49ers 6 @ Seahawks 31 -- As a 49ers fan I type this with an almost tear in the eye. As an analyst (of sorts) I type this in just utter disbelief. What in the name of god happened? Matt Hasselbeck went 18/23 for 170 yards, 2 TDs and an INT. Alex Smith went 26/45 for 225 yards and 2 INTs. The question that immediately crops up is why is Alex Smith throwing 45 passes. Lay aside my natural bias to the run and just think about it for a second; Mike Singletary has always said he wanted to run the football and play good defense. The Texans ran the ball and played good defense against the Colts (well... they ran the ball at least). The Titans ran the ball and played great defense. The 49ers ran the ball 19 times and played horrible defense. Chris Johnson had 27 carries. Arian Foster had 33. Frank Gore had 17. That is not what I expected out of the 49ers. What was the point in using two first round picks on Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati who both really come alive in the running game, only to not bother running it? Defensively for the 49ers it was Patrick Willis, surprise, surprise, who led the team in tackles with 10. But then on a defense that tackled that badly, it wasn't hard. Seahawks standouts (of sorts) were; Safety Jordan Babineaux (5 tackles, 2 assists, and an INT) & LB Lofa Tatupu (5 tackles, 3 assists). Cowboys 7 @ Redskins 13 -- What the hell? How do you lose to the Redskins! McNabb went 15/32 for 171 yards. Romo put up 31/47 for 282 yards and a TD. That's good numbers from Tony. But what's this? Just 21 carries for the three headed monster that is the Cowboys backfield (95 yards)? And how does Marion Barber get more carries than Tashard Choice? Even Clinton Portis nearly racked up as many carries alone for the Redskins (18 for 63 yards). A truly woeful game, but a bright spot for the Cowboys was the play of their receivers; Miles Austin, Roy Williams & Dez Bryant all looking comfortable going up for catches. And the Cowboys cant really complain about the last second TD wiped off the board. It's just a pity that more holding calls aren't made (and I see at least 5 or 6 holds like that go uncalled, per game, every game). Safety Alan Ball stood out for the Cowboys with 6 tackles and a forced fumble, while LB DeMarcus Ware left the game with an injury after posting 6 tackles and a sack. The Redskins had some serious D going on, with 4 players posting 7 or more tackles. Safety LaRon Landry led in tackles with 13 and 3 assists. LB Rocky McIntosh clocked 8 tackles, 2 assists and a sack, DeAngelo Hall finished with 7 tackles, an assist and a forced fumble (which he then returned 32 yards for the sole Redskins TD), and finally London Fletcher rounds off the group with 7 tackles and 4 assists. Right, that's all of Sundays games in the bag then. Pick wise for this week I am now officially 4-10. I blame this solely on the Texans... because I can. I'll be back probably tomorrow to round up all of Monday Nights action. Till then, Have a great day everyone.

Week 1 NFL picks (part 3?)

Continuing the preview of this weekends games, it's time to look at the final 6, starting with: Cardinals @ Rams -- Tricky, simply because neither of these teams is the team they were last season. If that makes any sense at all. Both have undergone an over haul at the QB position, which is good for the Rams and bad for the Cardinals. Arizona lost Kurt Warner to the allure of TV football punditry and gardening, while the Rams finally made a move at the QB spot and brought in highly rated Sam Bradford. For the Cardinals it was also a watershed moment in a way when they released Matt Leinart. With the Raiders high profile release of JaMarcus Russell also coming this season, it seems like teams are taking advantage of the uncapped year to dump their wasters and begin rebuilding for the new decade. Unfortunately for Arizona they're rebuilding with Derek Anderson. There's been a lot of talk about things he's done in the past with the Browns etc, but let's get it straight; Anderson had trouble fighting off Brady Quinn in Cleveland. Ok, Brady Quinn. Any optimism held out by Cardinals fans may evaporate rather rapidly this season. Arizona's best shot is the RB combo of Tim Hightower and Chris "Beanie" Wells being able to draw some attention away from the passing game. Difficult, considering Larry Fitzgerald is still out there. The Rams have more reason to smile. Sam Bradford has been good so far, albeit in the pre-season. Their defense has finally started to produce some sacks. Albeit in the pre-season. Even their receivers have stepped up their game a notch. Albeit, in the pre-season. Arizona presents the first test for a team and a city that has a noticeable bounce back in it's step. Albeit, in the pre-season. I'm going to go on a limb here and take the positive attitude and renewed enthusiasm of the Rams for a win. Did I really just take the Rams over the Cardinals? Packers @ Eagles -- The Packers are perfectly set, like the Jets and the Ravens, for the most amazing of downfalls. Everywhere you turn, the Packers are being pushed as the number one pick for the Super Bowl, a sure fire choice that cant possibly fail. Personally I have them down for the NFC North, but a lot can change between now and February. Not tonight though. I like Kevin Kolb, but I worry it's going to be more of the same for the Eagles. More bad challenges, more bad play calls. A stark inability to score once in the red zone etc. The Eagles really need their defense to come alive for them this year. More pressure and more picks, trying to ease the load on an offense that can best be described as 'inconsistent'. The Packers are poised to unleash their offensive and defensive fury, but as with all highly hyped teams (re: the Dallas Cowboys) the trouble is pushing past the hype and actually getting it done on the field. Week 1 I think they do. Packers win. 49ers @ Seahawks -- The revolving door in Seattle has barely finished spinning when someone else walks in and someone else leaves. It's getting almost ridiculous. And having thrown away their leading receiver from last year in a bid to start a youth movement, I think Seattle is actually looking a lot weaker than people think. With Matt Hasselbeck at QB and Seneca Wallace gone to Cleveland you also know they're just one injury away from it all going down the pan. The 49ers meanwhile have just chucked a new contract at Vernon Davis and are preparing for a season that could see them finally return to the playoffs. Certainly with the division the way it is now, this might be their best shot. Their defense was up there among the best last year for generating sacks and offensively Alex Smith will be settling in to another season with Jimmy Raye as his offensive coordinator. Smith has shown he can he can make the full range of passes now and tight end Vernon Davis lead the league last year in regular season TD catches. Given the balance of the two sides, I'm going to have to side with very own 49ers. Cowboys @ Redskins -- Adam Schein of FOXSports has tipped the Redskins to go 10-6 this season. I would be surprised if they even manage the reverse of that at 6-10. Seriously? The Redskins? This is a team that thought it was on top of the world in the off season. They landed one of the biggest coaching 'names' out there in Mike Shanahan, then scooped up Donovan McNabb to QB the team. Since then they've completely mishandled the situation with their premier defensive tackle (if you don't agree talent wise, then at least in salary). And the saga continues even to this day with almost daily talk regarding whether Haynesworth will work with the number twos or whether he'll be starting etc. The mood coming from Redskins camp seems to be very much unbalanced. Some of the players have spoken out against Haynesworth, some just seem to want it all resolved and to get the best players out there on the field. It's the perfect time for Dallas to strike their first blow in the NFC East. And let's not forget, Dallas still has one of the best collections of talented football players in the league. They have a pro bowl QB, a pro bowl TE, a pro bowl WR, a pro bowl tackle and linebackers, some pro bowl secondary players. It's just nuts how good of a team the Cowboys actually are. On paper. The trouble is bringing it all together. Which I see them doing tonight in Washington. Cowboys win. Ravens @ Jets -- The Jets have been the subject of more media attention than I can ever remember being directed at one team. And on such a grand stage it's only fitting that the main actors fall flat on their face for our amusement. The Jets have lost pass rush specialist Calvin Pace. Their offense is still a mess, after dumping one of the best backs in football right now. Sanchez is still young and looks a little shaky at times. Braylon Edwards still hasn't learnt to take his hands away from his face mask on deep balls. Santonio Holmes starts on a suspension. The Ravens on the other hand are missing Ed Reed but have more than able back ups for him. Their special teams unit is well fitted and the rest of their defense is strong. They've added two great receivers in the off season and still have a butt kicking run game. I just can't look past the Ravens for this one. Chargers @ Chiefs -- It's been a week of suspicious picks, one that I will potentially look back on with much regret. It is only right then, that I end on another suspicious call. I'm taking the Chiefs. Honestly, I think throughout pre-season we didn't see the best the Chiefs had to offer. Thomas Jones barely played a few downs. By comparison I think the Chargers have gone all out to make their pre-season a good one and dispel rumours that without Marcus McNeil at LT and Vincent Jackson at WR they will fail. And they failed. Scary as it might sound, I'm looking at the Chiefs secondary and although I'm not falling over with sheer admiration for them, I do see potential and I see Eric Berry having a good game. I'm confident in the rushing attack of Jones and Jamaal Charles and I think Chris Chambers and Dwayne Bowe are not receiving the credit they deserve. The question is whether Romeo Crennel can knock this defense into shape, especially the shape needed to take on the Chargers high flying offense. I'm going to take a leap of faith with Kansas and say yes, yes they can. Chiefs win. I'll be back later, at some point to recap the games. I should point out here that I've just grabbed a new job with new hours, so I'm not sure how all this is going to fit together yet and it might take a week or two to settle into a comfortable routine. I'll do my best to keep things flowing smoothly. Have a great day everyone.

Week 1 picks

After last nights disappointing result (at least as far as my pick is concerned), it's time to bounce back with some Sunday night picks. Tonight I'll be covering the nine 1:00 pm games and then tomorrow I'll go through the rest of the weekend (plus Mondays) games. You're not gonna like some of these...... Browns @ Buccaneers -- Like this one for example. I'm going to take - against every fiber of my gut instinct - ... the Buccaneers. I should know better than to do this, to put optimism in this young group of players led by a competent young coach ahead of the cold, hard reality that Buccaneers fans are astounded every time their team scores more than 20 points. But I am optimistic about the Bucs'. When Head Coach Raheem Morris took over play calling duties last year the defense improved. Not by leaps and bounds. But they got better. The Bucs' offense has also stumbled along a little. The loss of Antonio Bryant will hurt, but their other crop of receivers are developing nicely and if young QB Josh Freeman can learn to use the quarterbacks best friend - his Tight End (Kellen Winslow II) - then there is hope for Tampa. The Browns are another team with hopes and dreams, but little else right now. They're hoping that Jake Delhomme will somehow pull back on the controls and recover from his nose dive into mediocrity. History tells us this is unlikely to happen. It doesn't help that his receiving corps in Cleveland could probably match the level of obscurity of the corps in Carolina, with Steve Smith the exception rather than the rule. The Browns do have some hopes however. Josh Cribbs is likely to ply his trade not just as a return specialist but also as an every down wide receiver. He still has a way to go to fully being considered a threat at the position, but his legitimate ball skills and agility will help. RB Jerome Harrison will also be worth watching as he eyes up a Buccaneers defense that struggled against the run last year. Dolphins @ Bills -- I said you weren't gonna like some of these. You sure as hell aren't gonna like this one. I'm taking the Bills. Yes, Buffalo. Now that you've finished laughing, can we continue please? Good. The Bills do have two things in their favour. One is the fact that their defense was among the leagues best against the pass last year. People forget that about the Bills. Safety Jarius Byrd led the league jointly (with Darren Sharper) in interceptions, and so far corners Drayton Florence and Terrence McGee have given able service to a secondary that is much better than people assume. What the Bills need now is for Linebackers Aaron Maybin and Paul Posluszny to make the difference up front. The second thing in the Bills favour is RB C.J. Spiller. Spiller is one of those players who TV talking heads will annoyingly and generically refer to as a "dynamic playmaker". Spiller is quick in the open field and that works for the Bills in so many ways. Like Chris Johnson for the Titans, not only can Spiller generate big plays in the running game, but he can also catch short passes and check downs which he then turns into first downs (and more). The constant threat of what Spiller might do if he gets the ball, will be just as useful as the things he does do when he actually gets the ball. If that makes sense. Hopefully it'll open up holes in the defense to allow the Bills struggling quarterbacks to find passes to Lee Evans and co. upon whom much of the Bills season will rely. For the Dolphins it's a tough ask. Their ground game is first class, but as they showed last season the Dolphins seem to lack confidence in it and routinely try to force the ball downfield with QB Chad Henne. Against a pass defense of the caliber that the Bills bring to the table, it could prove a costly error. The problems faced by the Dolphins is compounded by the loss of both Joey Porter and Jason Taylor. While the 'phins have some good linebackers to replace them, this unit is not up to the same standard as it was last year. Unless Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess can keep the Dolphins offense steadily moving down the field, expect a tough day for Miami. Bengals @ Patriots -- The New England Patriots are yet to suffer an opening game loss at Gillette stadium. Tom Brady is yet to suffer a defeat at the hands of the Bengals. But don't forget the old phrase "there's a first time for everything". The Bengals will welcome back Defensive End Antwan Odom who sat out most of last year through injury. Odom recently tested positive for a banned substance but will be allowed to play while his appeal is being heard, claiming that he tested positive because of medication that he is currently taking. It's a big boost for a Bengals defense that is already among the best in the league without him. Corners Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall will certainly get a worthy test against Randy Moss and the Patriots receiving unit. Wes Welker returns from a serious knee injury and will be hoping he can slot back into a Patriots offense that depended on him highly last year, especially on third down. Rookie tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez played well in the pre-season and will look to make their presence felt early, especially in the red zone. The Bengals also have a rookie tight end, first rounder Jermaine Gresham. Gresham is just one of the many additions to the Bengals offense this season, as Cincinnati looks to repeat as division champions and return to the playoffs. Without question however their attack still revolves around RB Cedric Benson, ably supported by Bernard Scott and Cedric Peerman (Cincinnati loves Cedrics' like the Eagles love xxSeans'). The question for the Bengals is can Carson Palmer make use of the rushing attack and his new receiver toys to punish defenses. If they drop a safety and switch to a cover 3 shell, can Palmer expose the weaknesses? Can he make use of his new TE and the potential of receivers like Andre Caldwell and rookie Jordan Shipley running routes underneath? I'm going to say yes, and take the Bengals. The Patriots defense was shaky at times last year and will struggle again I think to generate a sufficient pass rush. Against the Bengals that will be too much to overcome. Colts @ Texans -- Ok, the silly predictions end here. I'm mad, but not quite that mad. To be fair to the Texans, they're getting ever closer, gradually creeping up on the Colts. But I still think there is a way to go. The trouble for me is the Texans Defense. When you deduct linebacker Brian Cushing from an already flimsy unit, it just doesn't have the punch that you need to compete with an offense like the Colts. The Texans do have the capability to keep up in a shoot out, but you just know that one slip and it's over. By slip I mean a sack. And when you're facing Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, sacks are more common than the Texans would like. Add the return of safety Bob Sanders to the mix and the Colts defense is very potent. Too potent I'm afraid. Colts win. Broncos @ Jaguars -- My tip for the AFC West opens against a team almost nobody would tip for the AFC South. The Jaguars have finally started to make progress off the field, selling sufficient tickets to avoid a black out for this game. Sadly for the Jaguars their on field product may not match the optimism in the stands. Maurice Jones-Drew is still a dangerous RB, but David Garrard doesn't look like the franchise QB everyone is hoping he would be. Couple that with a defense that doesn't exactly give people nightmares, ranking worst among all teams in 2009 for sacks (14; eight behind the next worse team Kansas) and you have a recipe for defeat. The Broncos meanwhile seem to have finally purged their demons. Brandon Marshall is gone and now - presumably - Head Coach Josh McDaniels is happy with everyone in the building. Kyle Orton leads an offense that is poised to have a good year. The Broncos are happy with a receiving corps that put up a good showing in pre-season and may have finally fixed their rushing attack. The key for the Broncos is defense. With Elvis Dumervil consigned to the injured reserve list once more, somehow the Broncos have to find a way to get to the quarterback. Second year outside linebacker Robert Ayers must lead the way, recapturing the form he found in his last year of college. The back end of the Broncos D is good enough to compensate somewhat, but if the Broncos are going to stand up and be counted this year, they need some pressure from the front seven. Facing Jacksonville is a good early test and I think they pass. Broncos win. Falcons @ Steelers -- This is a tough game to pick a winner from. Pittsburgh may not have Ben Roethlisberger, but they do have safety Troy Polamalu back in the fold. That makes their defense dangerous. We know they can generate pressure on the QB and we know they can stop the run with their front seven. Question is, can they score enough points to off set any defensive slips. Dennis Dixon gets the starting nod for the Steelers and although his passing has looked sometimes suspect, his ability with his feet cannot be ignored. That poses an extra problem for defenses when defending the pass, and that's before we even get to the issue of the Steelers run game, which has a four headed punch in Rashard Mendenhall, Mewelde Moore, Jonathan Dwyer and Issac Redman. Standing before them is an Atlanta team that many people are tipping to have the best shot at unseating the Saints for the NFC South crown. Led by a defense that includes John Abraham and was led in the pre-season by Kroy Biermann & mike linebacker Curtis Lofton, the Falcons are well equipped to get after the Steelers. The big problem for the Falcons D is their relative weakness in the secondary. Against Pittsburgh this is slightly offset by the lack of a true deep threat on the Steelers roster. The Falcons themselves are well accounted for on offense, with Matt Ryan leading a group that will hope to have a big year. They get RB Michael Turner back and in good health which is always a huge positive. For me, the Falcons have the edge. I see their offense being just a little more consistent, especially late in the game and in and around the red zone. Falcons win, but only just. Raiders @ Titans -- The Raiders finally managed to rustle up a pretty good draft in the off season. On top of that they dumped JaMarcus Russell in favour of Jason Campbell. The result seems to have been a sigh relief from within the Raiders team, with players reportedly happier and more optimistic. That optimism is being shared by analysts up and down the country. Except perhaps me (though I'm in a different country so maybe that explains it). I don't think the Raiders will be as craptacular as they have been under Russell, but this is still the Raiders we're talking about. It's still a Raiders team that lacks a stand out receiver. Darren McFadden is still projected to be the starting running back in week one (Michael Bush is injured). And they still have the Raiders O-line. And they still have the Raiders D. Things have improved on this side of the ball. By all accounts Richard Seymour has stepped forward as a leader. The acquisition of Kamerion Wimbley was over looked, but will be important in the weeks ahead. Rookie Rolando McClain also brings some run stopping punch to the outfit. But they're still fundamentally the Raiders. The Titans conversely are still the Titans, which is a good thing. While the Titans may be pushing their luck a little on the RB front (Chris Johnson, Javon Ringer, and FB Ahmard Hall. That's it), they are still a strong overall team. Vince Young has developed as a passer and still remains a serious threat with his feet. Defensively the Titans have all of their starting secondary available from week one. A lot of people seem to be overlooking the fact that at the start of 2009 the Titans had more holes in their secondary than a chunk of Swiss cheese. The same secondary that the season before (2008) had led the Titans to an undefeated streak of ten games to open their campaign. Now that the Titans have finally dumped Kerry Collins to the bench and are leaning more on their excellent running back, I see the Titans edging out the Raiders. Panthers @ Giants -- Hmm, another toughie. Mainly because regardless of what I guess the Panthers will do, they're bound to do the opposite, even if I attempt to play the old bluffing game with them. Thankfully I think the Giants are good enough to overcome that regardless. Tentatively I'm going to say that the Panthers will look at the pre-season debacle that was their offense and decide that what they desperately need right now is to air the ball out even more in the mistaken hope that they will rack up points like a loyalty based credit card. Which of course they wont; because the Giants have a good pass rush and because credit card companies are notoriously stingy with their loyalty points. Eli Manning may not be his brother, but he is pretty good. As long as he stops d**king about at the line of scrimmage trying to be Peyton mark 2, the Giants have a very good chance this season. Their offense is well manned and the addition of defensive coordinator Perry Fewell will hopefully give the defense the guidance it needs to get back to its previous Super Bowl winning form. Giants win. I think. Unless those damn Panthers screw me over again. I hate the Panthers. Lions @ Bears -- The potential bottom feeders of the NFC North come together for what might actually be a good game. Typically when two bad teams meet they struggle to make tackles and get a pass rush going, which ends up with a high scoring game. Don't count on the Bears either. Picking up Julius Peppers in free agency will help the Bears a little (certainly not in the long term though given the cost). The trouble with the Bears is that they needed more than just a "little" help. With key LB Brian Urlacher down injured again, it poses a real question as to where the threat from this defense will come from? Offensively it's just a cluster f**k of problems. The One Man Team Beater (the team in question being his own) Jay Cutler is serving under Mike Martz, a coordinator famous for a) airing the ball out lots (which is part of Cutlers problem) and b) his inability to develop quarterbacks. This last one seems an odd thing to say given that all the hyperbole about Martz for the last few months has centered around his magic skills at working with quarterbacks. But as a 49ers fan I have two words for you: Alex Smith. So, who's the Bears RB? Maybe that will help. Oh, it's Matt Forte. What about the O-line? Forget it. They only seem to know how to concede sacks and get their running back beaten up on a regular basis. What then, about the receivers? Well, their leading receiver is a corner back and punt returner, who is "mentored" by Deion Sanders. The same Deion Sanders who "mentored" Michael Crabtree into an extended contract holdout that has significantly hurt his ability to gel with his team, and the same Deion Sanders who "mentored" WR Dez Bryant into a season long college suspension through his senior year. The Bears are a joke. The Lions used to be. But not any more. Their defense still shares many qualities with that of a sieve, primarily that of having lots of holes, but at least their offense has improved. QB Matthew Stafford has improved and you get the sense that he's a leader with his head planted firmly on his shoulders. Calvin Johnson is... well he's Calvin Johnson. Rookie running back Jahvid Best is already looking like a strong addition to a young group of backs and Nate Burleson brings some experience at the receiver position which will help Staffords' development. Guard Rob Sims was also a good pick up through trade with Seattle. And just in case you haven't guessed already, I'm taking Detroit to win this one. That then, is all the 1:00 pm kick offs. Tomorrow I'll be back to finish off the list of this weekends games, but until then, Have a great day everyone. P.S. For what it's worth, I'd just like to say that I'll be thinking of all those lost in the 9/11 attacks nine years ago and their families.

Vikings @ Saints recap

Games done so it's time to wrap up the Vikings @ Saints: Vikings 9 @ Saints 14 -- Ya see, this is why I hate coaches like Brad Childress. You have a great running back in Adrian Peterson. 19 carries for 87 yards. Longest carry was 14 yards. He wasn't exactly ripping up the artificial turf at the Louisiana Superdome but at least he was plugging along nicely, as the title of my blog says "Keeping the Chains moving". So why, why in the name of god would you come out in the second half and barely let him touch the ball? Given that the Vikings were ahead and that even after Pierre Thomas scored, you still only had to make up 5 points, why would you completely abandon one of your best offensive assets in favour of throwing incompletions left, right and center (Favre finished 15/27 for 171 yards, a TD and an INT)? It just defies belief. Surely a drive that takes 11 plays or more and burns 6-7 minutes off the clock, but at the very least ends in a score or at least a potential score is better than throwing the ball 3 or 4 times ineffectually and then punting and letting the Saints run off the clock? It's like the Dolphins/Saints game from last year all over again, or the Panthers every damn week! Ah well. A few positives to take away would be that a) if the Vikings keep playing like this then the Packers are a lock for the division title and b) at least we have proof that the Saints aren't infallible as many people would have you believe they are. Brees finished 27/36 for 237 yards and a TD, but the Saints didn't look as crisp offensively as they did last season. Defensively the standouts were all Vikings. LB Chad Greenway recorded 9 tackles and 3 assists. LB E.J. Henderson recorded 8 tackles and one assist, and finally Antoine Winfield finished with 7 tackles and 2 assists. Overall a faltering, unsteady start from both teams that they will want to put behind them as quickly as possible. I'll be back tomorrow to start previewing the rest of the Week 1 action but until then, Have a great day everyone.

Vikings @ Saints

It's prediction time once again ahead of tomorrow nights game between the Vikings and Saints. Let's get straight to it: Vikings @ Saints -- We kick off the season with a repeat of last seasons NFC Championship game. But I don't expect a repeat of the result. Let's be absolutely clear about something; the Vikings turned the ball over 5 times and out gained the Saints offensively by about 200 yards. This is probably the main reason I dislike the Saints (Not hate...... Yet). It's not even their fault. You win a few games, no matter how many calls went your way or regardless of the reality of the games, and suddenly you're being crowned as the number one team in the league by the press. In the end the Saints came through in the big game itself, but to say that they were/are the best team in the NFL masks the fact that they finished bottom of their division the season before that and avoided defeat at the hands of the Redskins (THE REDSKINS) by virtue of a missed field goal It happens in knockout tournaments. You have a few good games, some things go your way and sometimes you just ride your luck to victory. I think this season we are going to see the Saints nose dive in truly fantastic fashion, making all the pre-season predictions of them as the number one team in the NFL look plain silly. It wont have anything to do with a "Super Bowl Hangover", but will have everything to do with the miracle that they even made it to the big game last year, let alone won it. And the nose dive begins this Thursday against the Vikings. Yes Favre is old. Yes Sidney Rice is injured. But yes, Bernard Berrian is a more than adequate back up. Yes Adrian Peterson can have a huge impact on a game. Yes, Toby Gerhart will be a more effective back up than even the excellent Chester Taylor. And yes, the Vikings still have a strong defense that forced numerous punts by the Saints just 7 or so months ago. Given that the Saints have gotten weaker in the off season and that Darren Sharper is unlikely to repeat his age defying interception tally, I can fully see the Vikings running over New Orleans tomorrow. It's going to be hum-dinger of a battle and the Saints are sure to come after Favre with everything they have, but I just don't think it'll be enough. Vikings win. I'll be back tomorrow to wrap it up the game, till then, Have a great day everyone.

Uhm.... break time.

Sorry about this but I'm going to be taking the night off tonight. All this blogging business can be very tiring. Rest assured I'll be back tomorrow to preview the first game of the season; Vikings @ Saints. We are so close now to the beginning of the football season. So close!!! Till then,

Have a great day everyone

Playoff predictions

Today I'm going to do what no football writer should ever do. I'm going to attempt to make predictions as to who will win the playoffs. This is probably one of the most futile tasks ever attempted. Invariably a string of injuries and unforeseen circumstances come up from nowhere to bite you in the butt further down the line. But I'll have a go. First of all let's look at the 12 teams that made up the playoffs last year; Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets, New Orleans Saints, Arizona Cardinals, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles. Now if history has taught us anything, it's that approximately half of all these teams will not make it back to the playoffs. That's six teams that potentially have to drop somewhere. But then you never know. History has also taught us of late that the bottom team in the NFC South will bounce back to win the division, but then unlike the 2009 Saints, the 2010 Buc's don't have the number one ranked offense from the previous year. My best guess is to go through them division by division and see where we end up. NFC North I'll start here because I'm fairly confident with this one. I'm backing the Green Bay Packers. Their offense is finding a rhythm under Aaron Rodgers and towards the end of last year their defense did the same, if you look past the freak shoot out with the Cardinals (and as the refs did, some very dubious calls). The Bears seem destined to prop up the pile, the Lions and Vikings fighting it out for second. NFC West I'm not so hugely confident with this one. I'm almost sure that the Cardinals and the Seahawks will bomb, but the Rams have actually looked pretty good with Bradford at the helm. They look like a proper NFL offense for a change. Even their defense jerked into life in the pre-season. But I'm going with the hotly tipped San Francisco 49ers. This is the year that my team returns to the playoffs with a combination of stout defense and Alex Smith feeding a steady stream of passes to Vernon Davis once more. NFC East I'm sure it's not going to be the Redskins. I've lost a bit of confidence in Philadelphia. I'm not sure if the Eagles can beat their divisional opponents. That leaves the Cowboys and the Giants and looking at their schedule, I think it's a matter of who wins their two meetings as to who wins the division. And I'm tempted to edge it and say.... New York Giants. I think their pass rush is panning out better than many of us hoped and that will be a key factor. If the Cowboys don't win it, they're destined to get a wild card I think. NFC South No we come to the real crunch time. Forget Tampa. Done. Forget New Orleans (what?). The Super Bowl champions are not going to get 9 interceptions out of Darren Sharper this year. They are not going to have the Dolphins throw away a big lead for them. They're not going to have the Redskins miss a chip shot field goal. They may even finish under .500. So it falls then to the Panthers and Falcons, and again it comes down to who will win the head to head. I cannot believe I'm saying this. I cannot believe I'm about to do it. But.... (sigh)... Carolina Panthers win the division. Their defense i think will have a better pass rush than Atlanta. And if they keep working those tight ends and that running game, they can do a lot of damage on offense. Of course, being the Panthers they can always spite me by being terrible, but even the Panthers cant be that cruel can they? You bet your a** they can. I hate the Panthers. That leaves one spot for an NFC wild card left (if we assume the runner up in the NFC East will take one spot) so who is the other team? I'm taking the Vikings. Even with a banged up old man at QB, the Vikings still possess a ferocious pass rush and Adrian Peterson. I think they ride in just behind the Packers in the North. Moving on then to the AFC, starting in the easy division. AFC East New England Patriots. There. Done. Honestly looking at the schedules and thinking about just how bad the Jets are offensively, I now have visions of them ending up picking in the top 5 next year in the draft. They've got Revis back in the fold now (I should probably have done a news segment on that) but everything else about them looks shaky as hell right now. I think the Bills might actually be the team that gives New England the closest run. Yeah. The Bills. That's how desperate it's looking. AFC South Tennessee Titans. That's another one down. Lets be real here. When Kerry Collins was removed as the QB and the Titans got their first string secondary back, they looked mighty impressive. They went back to looking like the Titans team that breezed to the division title in the '08 season. I see them repeating that feat in 2010. As for the Colts, I have them at possibly 9-7.... AFC West I'm pretty sure that both Kansas and Oakland will continue to struggle a little. For me it's down to the Chargers and the Broncos and again I think it's a head to head battle that will decide the division. And I'm leaning towards.... the Denver Broncos. The Chargers are missing Vincent Jackson and their defense is still a little unsteady. I think Kyle Orton has a handle on the Broncos offense now and is set for a good year. Broncos win the AFC West AFC North Cleveland? Forget it. Pittsburgh? I think they struggle too much early on and have trouble recovering. So it's down to the Bengals and the Ravens. Looking at them both, I just get this gut feeling that the Bengals have better depth. With the Ravens picking up T.J. Houshmandzadeh they've added another great weapon to their offense, but I just think the Bengals have more in the tank. Cincinnati Bengals win the division, Ravens take a wild card. That leaves one wild card spot left. And I'm leaning towards either the Chargers or the Colts. All things considered, I think the Colts will probably just nudge it, maybe even by as little as strength of schedule. So, there we go. Let's have a look at my list of 2010 playoff teams: New York Giants San Francisco 49ers Green Bay Packers Carolina Panthers Dallas Cowboys Minnesota Vikings Cincinnati Bengals New England Patriots Tennessee Titans Denver Broncos Baltimore Ravens Indianapolis Colts That's seven teams making the playoffs again (Packers, Cowboys, Vikings, Bengals, Patriots, Ravens, Colts) and five new teams (Giants, 49ers, Panthers, Titans, Broncos). That's not bad. The history books would ask me to look again and find one new team, but I'm pretty happy with that line up. Until week one of course, when it all begins to blow up in my face (led by the Panthers no doubt). Have a great day everyone.

Run-down

Inevitably when I bring up the subject of statistical analysis in football and how I think many false conclusions are drawn through the misuse of statistics, two things happen; the first is that most readers switch off mentally, preferring to eat out there own intestines rather than be forced to sit through what amounts to a lecture in applied mathematics. The second is that I wake up with an e-mail inbox overflowing with literally a couple of e-mails telling me that I'm a simpleton and that I should spend more time studying at Football Outsiders or AdvancedNFLstats. (I'm sure some of you are already preparing to send your pre-written hate mail, so for those that cant wait the address is here). Anyway, stopping by the aforementioned Advanced NFL stats I came across an article that includes a run down of an article from their seemingly hated rivals at Football Outsiders. Let the graph wars begin!! But there is a serious point to be brought up. Football number crunchers, for want of a better title, have a serious thing against the run in football. It's like the hatred NFL coaches had for the pass in the '60s... but in reverse. It would appear that most football number crunchers also seem to share a trait with the vast majority of high school coaches who frequent various Internet message boards, (no names mentioned), in that they all seem to assume that anything said by any analyst on TV must be inherently wrong in some way; doubly so if that analyst works for ESPN. The classic central point and counter-point between number crunchers and TV analysts (an argument held on the analysts behalf in absentia) surrounds the issue of whether running the ball and stopping the run is important in winning football games. The analysts believe that it is. The Number crunchers do not. I'm with the analysts on this point (hold the hate mail for a minute!) and I'd like to try and explain why. I'd like to draw on a combination of my own coaching experience, the experiences shared with me by others, what I've absorbed over the years from the idiot box, and what I've absorbed from various coaching materials (books, coaches forums, etc). First we have to highlight a point that the number crunchers/analysts/everyone seems to be at a consensus on; the greater the distance to go on third down, the harder it is to make the yards and get a first down. This is important because I believe that when analysts (even those on ESPN) talk about running the football and stopping the run, they're referring to three very specific circumstances; first and second downs (that counts as one), goal line & short yardage. I do not believe that they are suggesting for a second that a dominant run defense and a chronic pass defense will breed success (or ditto for a dominant rush/poor pass offense). So why is stopping the run such an issue on first and second down? Well again we have to throw in a caveat. When I hear "you've got to stop the run!" I understand that to mean "... with your front 7, without the need to drop a safety into the box". And it comes back to that first and second down argument. If you can stuff the run on first or second down, you improve the chances of forcing the defense into long yardage third down situations. Which means one thing; Le Passe! (I'm not entirely sure that's actual French). The defense sits back a little. Substitutions can be made, bringing in third down linebackers and linemen who specialise in either pass coverage or pass rushing. You can remove that clunky, run stopping DT (Terrence Cody anyone?) and insert a more lithe and agile individual, or at least as lithe and agile as defensive linemen get. You can tell your corners to sit back a little. Let them have the short stuff. If the offense dumps it off with a short pass then you come racing down and nail them short of the first down marker. This is what I've always understood as the primary advantage to being strong against the run. It's not about the fear of an 80 yard dash, it's the fear of the 5 or 6 yard scamper. That run that allows the offense to obtain a fresh set of downs. It's the knowledge that a stuffed run plus an incomplete or short pass puts the offense in a tricky and somewhat predictable situation. This is why we call third down the defenses down. It's the one down where they have the best possible chance of predicting what the offense will do, while having the best chance to make a play. Obviously stopping short yardage runs and goal line runs is important as well. Forcing the offense into third and 3 is of no use if they then run it straight over you. Similarly in and around the goal line it is necessary to keep the RB out and force the defense to throw in the much restricted area of the end zone. I'm not expecting this to start some kind of revolution. My only hope is that the number crunchers among you will see that sometimes there is more to football than the numbers. The underlying strategy and the many inter-weaving factors that go into football sometimes bring up unexpected goals and challenges. Things that go beyond just the statistics and the analysis. Tomorrow I'm going to do the stupid and attempt to predict the play off teams for this season. I can hear the sound of crashing and burning already.... Have a great day everyone.