Kicking yourself when you're down

On Sunday Night, the Steelers took a big chance. With about 4 mins left on the clock and a two point lead they went for an onside kick. The theory is simple. Your defense isn't playing very well and you want to get the ball back so you can run down the clock. If the other team gets the ball they will have a short field and probably score and then you can have the ball back with plenty of time left to put on a scoring drive. It's been hailed as a genius move, largely because it worked whereas Bill Belichicks famous 4th down decision against the Colts didn't. A few people disagree with this. And I'm one of them. So let's say first that you recover the onside kick and do so legally. Now you have to burn 4 minutes off the clock. It's that simple. If you go three and out, you give the ball back with enough time for the other team to score but not enough for you to get the ball back again and score yourselves. But what would be most alarming to me would be the thought of not recovering and giving the ball to the other team, with a short field (as happened). Foremost in my mind would be the realisation that they only need a field goal to take the lead. We have 2 timeouts and the two minute warning, but they have probably 39-yards to work with. That's more than enough space with which to keep the ball moving, keep the clock running, before finally taking the lead with the field goal. And now what happens? I have to go the length of the field again in order to get back into field goal range without much time in my pocket. Great. Honestly, if this decision had back fired it would have been a feeding frenzy for the media. As it stands, it looks like a great choice. But I don't buy it. A little more savvy from the Green Bay coaching staff (i.e. switch to your 4 minute offense), kick the field goal and this one is all but over. Bad call.

Week 15 round up

With Monday Nights game wrapped up, it's time to see how I got on pick wise with my Week 15 round up. So far I'm 1-1 this week: Patriots 17 @ Bills 10 -- Two words. Pass. Interference. I consider myself quite a grouchy, cynical person. And I've noticed that better teams certainly do get the rub of the green. The Colts basically live off a large number of 'pick' or 'rub' plays, which are supposed to be illegal. And anytime the Pats need a helping hand it seems all they have to do is throw a bomb to Moss and watch the little yellow flags fly. It's a joke and both of those big calls resulted in touchdowns. 2-1. Browns 41 @ Chiefs 34 -- Wow. Having laughed at this fixture for it's seemingly poor quality, it turned out to be quite the game. Special teams certainly made their mark as Josh Cribbs set a new NFL single season record for kick returns for TDs. But it was Jerome Harrison, in his 4th season now, who really stole the show. 34 carries for 286 yards and 3 TDs. I keep saying it to people but no one seems to listen. That production from Harrison is equal to what many of the best QBs in the league produce passing when they get 34 throws. And it's a whole lot more productive than what the worst QBs in the league get out of 34 throws. Credit to Brady Quinn though. He only got 17 attempts but still managed to complete just 10 of them and throw 2 picks. On a more positive note he did turn 4 scrambles into 39 yards. Maybe he just missed his calling. 2-2. Falcons 10 @ Jets 7 -- And from one exciting game to..... an abomination of the footballing kind. And to top matters, the 'Sanchise' was back from injury. Which meant the Jets rushing attack that has been trying to sustain this team all year long was once again dumped on. And predictably in the cold weather Sanchez completes just 18/32 and throws 3 picks. But worse was to come for the New Yorkers, as they botched no less than three field goal attempts well within range. One muffed hold, one wide right and one botched snap that led to a block. Then to cap a great game for the Jets, on 4th and goal for the Falcons with time ticking away, they let Tony Gonzalez practically walk into the endzone and sit down for the game winnning catch. 2-3. Texans 16 @ Rams 13 -- Not a lot to say about this one except that Matt Schaub to Andre Johnson has to be one of the most fun combinations to watch in the NFL, as Johnson went 9 for 196 yards. Maybe next year Houston.... 3-3. Dolphins 24 @ Titans 27 -- Somethings been driving me nuts about Miami for ages now. They've lived a lot on the strength of the 'Wildcat' this season. But as soon as Ronnie Brown went down injured, they just tossed it aside. Even though they've already shown themselves that with Pat White in the backfield they gain another two dimensions (legitimate throwing and option football). Ah well, they only have themselves to blame. The Titans were good but on 29 carries Johnson was held to just 104 yards. Vince Young got the offense going through the air but somehow the 'Phins rallied to take it to overtime. Then threw a pick. Stupid. 3-4. Cardinals 31 @ Lions 24 -- The Cards nearly got the shock of their life against the Lions. Only some hard running by Chris 'Beanie' Wells and a tough catch and run by one of my favourite players, Anquan Boldin, got it done for Arizona. Having seen how effective his team was on the ground, former Steelers coach Ken Wisenhunt looks like he's leaning more on becoming a power football team. I think the Cards chances in the playoffs just went up a notch. 4-4. Raiders 20 @ Broncos 19 -- Prior to having the chance of watching highlights for this game, I read repeated accounts of how great the Raiders were and how they pounded the Broncos into submission in this one. Then I watched the film. The Raiders scraped a win in the last 30 seconds or so. That is not what I call dominating or pounding anyone into submission. That's what I call slipping through the gap in the final seconds. 4-5. Bengals 24 @ Chargers 27 -- There are two things you can't really do against the Chargers. One is make costly mental errors that the Chargers will happily exploit. Two is to keep feeding the ball back to the Chargers and Phillip Rivers. Unfortunately for an emotional Bengals, they did both. Whether it was the pressure of the game or the loss of Chris Henry, the Bengals did not look alert at times and these lapses ultimately cost them. In addition, after weeks of successfully driving the ball hard on the ground, the Bengals picked an inopportune moment to ignore their rushing attack. In a game that was decided by a last minute Chargers drive, some burning of the clock might just have come in handy. 5-5. Bears 7 @ Ravens 31 -- Sometimes there are bigger things going on when a QB throws a lot of interceptions. God only knows what's happening with Jay Cutler. 3 more interceptions this weekend now takes his season tally to 25. That's five more than rookies Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez, and 7 more than even the pick master Jake Delhomme (though granted with more starts). The Bears only touchdown came on a special teams return and their defense just looked shocking. Even 'Air Flacco' was able to muster 4 TDs against them and that's probably the most damning indictment you can have. 6-5. Buccaneers 24 @ Seahawks 7 -- Maybe I should just toss a coin to decide my picks more often. The Buccaneers didn't just win, they stormed the Seahawks. And amazingly, Seattle could learn a thing or two from Tampa. Such as how to defend against the passing game. And understanding that good QBs are best used with a supplementary run game. Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams hardly set the world alight, but they made solid games that helped keep the offense on track and kept it from becoming predictable. The Seahawks largely discarded a run game that has done them good service lately and instead went airborne 46 times, generating 4 interceptions in the process. Poor. 7-5. 49ers 13 @ Eagles 27 -- Let me just point something out for the sake of those who aren't aware. When the Eagles have more rushing attempts than you, not even yards, just rushing attempts, then I'm afraid you have serious problems my friends. So guess who has serious problems? Yep, my poor 49ers. Poor them and poor play. On a happier note, credit to the biggest playmakers of the day; the Eagles ground staff. Somehow they managed to find the pitch under all of that snow and get the game on. Well done. 8-5. Packers 36 @ Steelers 37 -- Did someone order a shootout? Big time game through the air and the NFL executives have probably all wet themselves just a little at the thought of this (I notice this is the game that has been chosen for NFL Replay on Tuesday and not the higher scoring and just as dramatic Browns @ Chiefs). Ultimately it was a missed field goal in the first half that came back to bite the Packers, along with a string of penalties in the fourth quarter alone. Who says a good kicker isn't worth the investment. There are a few teams in the league right now whose playoff aspirations have been variously hindered by just a few simple missed field goals. 8-6. Vikings 7 @ Panthers 26 -- After checking in on my total pick tally for the day I realised things had not gone well. I was boosted by the thought of the Vikings visiting Carolina. With the Saints losing on Saturday to fellow conference team the Cowboys, the door had been kicked open ready for the Vikings to make a charge on the number 1 seed in the NFC. I expected them to walk right into the Bank of America stadium and then walk out again with another win. Instead they strolled in and just barely crawled out, taking a big L with them. But the biggest surprise I've had is watching, listening to and reading the reactions of, various highly respected football analysts. Because somehow, somewhere, they've all become just a little mentally unstable. Take for example Michael Lombardi of NFL.com, who proudly stated, and I quote "Quarterback Matt Moore looked like a Pro Bowler in only his third start of the season... " Are you F*%$ing kidding me? Is this for real? Moore looked awful. Between them, Steve Smith and Gary Barnidge made Moore look good. They saved him from two, possibly three potential picks and chalked up most of Moores passing tally after the catch. The real heroes of the day were Jonathan Stewart who stepped up after DeAngelo Williams went down injured, and the in particular the Panthers D. They truly did dominate someone, namely Favre. Favre went 17/27 for 224 yards, but that doesn't tell the whole story. His biggest gain of the day was a short pass to Adrian Peterson who then turned up field and notched 63 yards. But that wasn't until the 4th quarter and was followed by Favres only pick of the game on the next play. That's how bad a beatdown the Panthers layed on the Vikings. And as for Peterson in the ground game? 12 carries for 35 yards and a TD. Only 3 of those carries came in the second half. It's the classic "Who cares that we have a great RB, we just want to air it out" mentality coming back again. Unfortunately for the Vikings fans, Favre-aggeddon may just blow up in their face this year. 8-7. Giants 45 @ Redskins 12 -- Signs that your team is in trouble #45: your QB gets more yards on two scrambles than any of your proper RBs. So yeah, the Redskins are in trouble. The Giants meanwhile found a nice balance to their offense which the normally quite stout Redskins couldn't cope with. This is a big win for the Giants. 8-8. I don't believe it, what a shocking week pick wise. 8-8 is by far my worst showing so far and it takes my overall tally since Week 7 to 86-49. Big time blow this week. Next week will need a big lift to recover some picking pride. But before I rush off anywhere, I just want to bring one truly dumb decision to light (and for a change, it's not mine). The Dallas Cowboys have had enough of Nick Folk and have released him. That's understandable. But who do you bring in to replace him? Maybe Jason Elam, he's out there on the free market isn't he? Hasn't he got 2 Superbowl rings? Isn't he tied in 1st place with Tom Dempsey for the longest field goal kick in NFL history? Doesn't he have a career 81% rating at kicking field goals? Yeah he does!!! So who do the Cowboys take? Shaun Suisham. WTF? The same Shaun Suisham who missed a 23-yard chip kick field goal for the Redskins against the Saints, a field goal that would have won them the game and ended the Saints undefeated streak even faster? Yeah, the same Shaun Suisham. Nice work Dallas, slick move. Slick move. No Superbowl dreams for you this season then.

Saturday Night round up

Saturday nights game is done so let's have a round up: Cowboys 24 @ Saints 17 -- You couldn't script it any better. The team that cant win in December, wins in December, against a team that so far this season hasn't been beaten. Well, so much for the undefeated season. And with it goes my pick for the game. But I don't care. I am now looking forward to a week of listening to people coming up with excuses as to why the Saints lost. No doubt the same people who have conveniently overlooked all the little things, the lucky breaks and bad calls, that have helped the Saints to go undefeated in the first place. It's poetic justice at its finest. But excuses aside, there are some very legitimate reasons why the Saints lost. A huge part of the Saints offense relies on play action passes to generate space behind the secondary for all those deep balls. Looking at it, the Cowboys just didn't bite as hard as most teams do. They stayed with the receivers and were rewarded with just 2 minutes left in the first half when Drew Brees under threw a pass to Devery Henderson and Mike Jenkins came up with the pick. Then we have the respective run games. If we exclude QB scrambles, then the Saints tallied just 11 run plays compared to the Cowboys 32. Even though 'Americas Team' notched just 145 net yards on the ground, the key thing is they burnt the clock and kept the explosive Saints offense off the field. That's how you beat the Saints. Though there is one last element needed.... DeMarcus Ware. One of the reasons I took the Saints was because Ware was listed as Questionable. That usually means 'if he plays, he'll be rubbish'. Ware however looked on fine form and bagged himself 2 sacks, both causing fumbles, using his patented 'push and then duck under' rushing technique. OLB Anthony Spencer also helped the cause coming up with 2 sacks of his own. That's 4 in one game, compared to the Saints previous grand total of 15 in all of their previous 13 games. And what a surprise. Who would have thought that sacking the QB of a pass heavy team would help you beat them. But it nearly went off the rails for Dallas.... 2:14 left in the 4th quarter, Dallas leads by 7. They get down close to the Saints end. Then get stopped. There's nothing more they can do. It's a 24 yard chip shot field goal and then hope that the 10 point lead holds up. Onto the field walks much maligned kicker Nick Folk. The snap is good.... ball down.... kick is up and on the way and it is..... NO GOOD!! OFF THE INSIDE OF THE UPRIGHT!!! At this point Cowboys fans probably couldn't believe what they'd just seen, Wade Phillips was probably calling the GM to arrange for someones pink slip to be waiting for them in the dressing room, and Saints fans were sitting in the stands going "That happens all the time for us, how else do you think we're still 13-0?" Luckily for the Cowboys DeMarcus Ware got his second sack and forced fumble of the night on the ensuing Saints drive, allowing Jay Ratliff to dive on the ball and wrap it up for the Cowboys. But we're not quite done yet, there's still one last person left to poke some fun at. Namely Cowboys WR Roy Williams. Williams has made a regular point of telling the media he's Mr #1 in Dallas. The reality is he's a close third or fourth. Austin is #1. Romo is #2. That's that. Austin caught 7 balls for 139 yards and a TD. Witten caught 5 for another 44 yards. Williams caught 1 for 14 yards and dropped a clanger on a potential 3rd conversion. When you look at the Cowboys as a whole, I'd favour Patrick Crayton over Williams 10 times out of 10. So that's that done and that's me 1-1 for this week, though I can't help but smile at tonight's result. It's gonna be a good week I think. Take care all. Miles Austin

Week 15 picks

It's Friday Night/Saturday Morning, which means it's time to give you my picks for the rest of the games in Week 15: Patriots @ Bills -- Earlier in the season, the impossible almost happened. The Bills nearly beat the Patriots. And since then, the Patriots have had an up and down season. The Bills have had a mostly down season. Now they meet again, with the Bills eager to avenge their loss and the Patriots eager to make ground in the race for the playoffs. Both teams have a lot to play for, but both have some glaring deficiencies to overcome. The Pats offense has been solid, but their leading play maker this season has been Wes Welker. This isn't supposed to happen. Welker is supposed to be the guy that runs great underneath routes and can give you yards after the catch, or in other words, a checkdown guy. He's the player you turn to when your deep threats are all covered. And the fact that Welker has seen so many passes is indicative of a lack of downfield threat. Againts the Bills 4th ranked pass defense, that trend may continue. But their real problem is the defense, which has looked very vulnerable of late. Luckily though, help is at hand. The Bills offense to be exact. One week they're going, the next they're lying flat on the their faces. The deep threat to TO has been off and on lately. Even though I don't think the Pats will have a field day, the Bills will struggle to match their opponents if they go over 20. Patriots win. Browns @ Chiefs -- This is a dream match up. A bad dream maybe. God the Chiefs season ticket holders must be kicking themselves that they paid out all that money and then ended up with this turkey on their dinner plate. Well, neither team really stands out to be honest. Based purely on the strength of their run game, I'm going with the Chiefs. Chiefs win. 49ers @ Eagles -- Oh how I would love to take my very own 49ers in this one, but alas I think last weeks fumble frenzy against the Cardinals was a little fluky. Add to that the fact the 49ers offense still struggles to generate anything approaching decent yardage and I think we're all set for another Eagles victory. Eagles win. Texans @ Rams -- The Texans have been explosive offensively this season, just like last year. Compare their high flying, potentially fast scoring offense with the Rams pitiful D and abhorrent pass defense and we have ourselves a victor. Texans win. Dolphins @ Titans -- There is really only one battle that matters. Chris Johnson versus the Dolphins rush defense. I think Johnson edges that battle. But even if he does, Kerry Collins is likely back in the lineup and the threat of Vince Young will be gone. Collins loves throwing interceptions and the Titans staff love giving him opportunities to do so. On top of that, Miami is chomping at the bit to get a piece of the playoff action this year. Dolphins win. Falcons @ Jets -- I like Chris Redman and what he's done for the Falcons. But I like the Jets better rushing attack and standout corner Darrelle Revis to pull them through. Providing the 'Sanchise' doesn't literally throw all their good work away. Jets win. Cardinals @ Lions -- Cardinals win. Raiders @ Broncos -- The Raiders are so confident with the play of QB JaMarcus Russell that on Sunday he will play second fiddle to Charlie Frye. Yeah, so that says it all. Broncos win. Bengals @ Chargers -- After the loss of team mate Chris Henry this week, it's going to be an emotional time for the Bengals. It could go one of two ways. Either they will be steely determined to play their hearts out in honour of his memory, or the reality of what has happened will sink home in a major way. Unfortunately it doesn't help when you have the San Diego Chargers on the opposite side of the field. The Chargers have got their downfield pass game into it's groove and LT is punching home TDs like it was easy. Chargers win. Bears @ Ravens -- On the face of it, these two teams look like equals. In reality, the Ravens are a class above. Their receivers actually run proper routes, their rushing attack is brutal and efficient and their D is steady if not electric this year. The Bears are the polar opposite. Ravens win. Packers @ Steelers -- The Steelers are in a rut. Big time. They just look woeful right now on all sides of the ball. Enter the Packers, who have fixed their early blips and blemishes, and look ready to make a run in the playoffs. This is a mis-match. Big time. Packers win. Buccaneers @ Seahawks -- Honestly, I hate both teams in this. It's that simple. And so in the time honoured fashion of when men wished to settle various disputes, I shall flip a coin. Buc's are heads, Seahawks are tails......... Heads it is. Buccaneers win. Vikings @ Panthers -- Question; which Panthers team will show up? Answer; nobody knows. They might run the ball until DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have no legs left. Or they might just hurl the ball around trying to re create their favourite Madden plays. Either way, they still won't win. The Vikings are beasts right now. Beasts on offense, beasts on defense. The Panthers are more like worried little pussy cats. Vikings win. Giants @ Redskins -- The Redskins have been surprisingly good of late. The Giants have been surprisingly bad. More to the point, the Redskins have been finding ways to move the ball deep downfield while the Giants have been finding ways to give up huge touchdown plays. This is a bit of an out on a limb type pick, but I'm taking the Redskins to play upset special. Redskins win. So there we have it. I'll be back tomorrow (today?) to round up the Cowboys @ Saints. Until then, have a nice day.

Thursday Night Football round up

Before I even get started with this post, I'd just like to say how sorry I was to hear about the passing of Chris Henry. Henry had his troubles along the line, but by all accounts he had made an extra effort this year to get his life and his playing career on track. Team mates have spoken about his dedication in the off season and his strong ongoing work ethic. The results were evident on the field as Henry looked to work his way back into the Bengals first team. My thoughts and prayers go out to the family, friends and team mates of Chris Henry. May he rest in peace. And now we come to this weeks Thursday Night Football round up: Colts 35 @ Jaguars 31 -- Questions will be asked of Jaguars Free Safety Reggie Nelson. His coaches and team mates will want to know why he meekly threw himself against the side of Dallas Clark, allowing Clark to stay upright and run home a 27 yard TD pass in the 3rd quarter. Then everyone will want to know what happened on the 65 yard TD pass from Peyton Manning to Reggie Wayne in the 4th quarter. They'll all want to know why Nelson failed to simply dive and wrap up Wayne well short of the goal line instead of just running up behind him, leaning forward, and then seeming to pat him on the backside before falling over. After his coaches have finished playing tape of him in front of the whole team to make a point about tackling, the FBI will probably want to have a word with Nelson as well, something to do with suspicious betting patterns on a Colts win. Of course that's a slight embellishment (I hope) but honestly, if you haven't seen it yet, then after you've finished here head over to NFL.com and watch the game highlights. For all my talk about running the ball, teams choices of offense etc, etc, I'm a defensive guy at heart. I love watching defenders fly across the field in an attempt to create a kind of human Crash Derby. But that mindset has it's downsides. 1) I go nuts when I see blown coverages. 2) I tear out what little hair I have left from my head when I see appalling tackling. It just astounds me how bad some of the tackling in pro football is. Nelson practically put on a one man "how not to" show tonight. Just shockingly bad. And that, amazingly enough, was pretty much the difference. Manning had another 300 yard/4 TD game, tearing Jacksonville to pieces. David Garrard tried to fight back but completed just 23/40, for 233 yards and 3 TDs. Both QB's threw one pick. Jones-Drew had 27 carries and notched 110 yards plus a rushing TD to go with his receiving TD from earlier in the game. And my little dynamo Rashad Jennings got over double his normal allocation of rushing attempts, a whole 5 this time around, for 23 yards. Now don't get me wrong, I like David Garrard, but he's not a game winning QB in the way that many others are. He's a handy tool, a guy who can keep drives alive. But he's not the bread and butter of the Jaguars and I do wish they'd stop treating him as such. It was also nice to see Chad Simpson get a 93 yard TD return which should hopefully shine some more light on a young player who I think has a big future. But that's enough ranting for now. Saturday night marks the first Saturday game of the season as the Saints welcome the Cowboys, so here's my pick for that one: Cowboys @ Saints -- It's December and that means only one thing as far as the Cowboys are concerned. And that my friends is a big, fat L. The Saints are going for the 16-0 and rightly so. While the Cowboys have the tools to make life difficult for the Saints, I just can't see it happening. They're likely to be without LB DeMarcus Ware for this one and they need all the help they can get to stop the Saints offense. Jay Ratliff might have a good game bringing pressure up the middle and forcing Drew Brees to hold the ball and move around, but don't count on the Cowboys to come up with many big defensive plays. On the opposite side of the turf, the Saints will possibly see the return of CB Tracey Porter and if that happens it will provide a huge boost to their recently lagging secondary. I still don't rate the Saints as the best team in the league, but I do rate them as better than the Cowboys. Much better. Saints win. So that's me done for the day, I'm off to go and play in the snow (who says a 25 year old can't enjoy building a snowman?) but I'll be back again tomorrow to bring you my picks for the rest of week 15. Until then, take care of yourselves.

Thursday Night Football

Tomorrow is Thursday, tonight is Wednesday. Having cleared that up, it's time for my Thursday Night Football pick: Colts @ Jaguars -- If I hear the phrase "Path to Perfection" many more times, it's gonna drive me nuts. I almost want both the Colts and the Saints to lose purely so I don't have to hear that anymore. But unfortunately, at least for the Colts, it's going to be another week of speculation. 'cos even though I like the Jags, and even though I like Maurice Jones-Drew, there are a few things that drive me to pick the Colts. Number one, is that I know deep down the Jaguars will try and shoot it out with the Colts. They'll throw maybe 35-40 times and they'll drag themselves into an offensive battle they can't win. They wont use their ground game to full effect. Jones-Drew will get maybe 15-20 carries, Rashad Jennings will get his obligatory 2 carries for 10 yards and the Colts D will show David Garrard the turf a few times. Even though they're a little banged up defensively, the Colts still get it done. They play sound, assignment football, giving you a few yards here and there, till finally you get frustrated and try and force something that isn't there and then they've got you. Offensively, Manning will do his thing, adjusting the protection to keep the leagues worst pass rush at bay while he scans the field and finds holes in the secondary that will eventually show up when you can't bring any pressure. It has Colts win written all over it. Unless they take their foot off the gas, I can't see them dropping the ball now. Colts win. So that takes care of Thursday. Tomorrow it'll be round up time, along with a Saturday night pick for the Cowboys at Saints. Until then, have a nice day.

Start 'em or sit 'em?

At the minute, the big argument in the NFL is thus; should the Saints and the Colts rest their guys or go for 16-0? Answer? They can't win either way. If you rest the guys and don't win the big trophy, everyone will say that your players got out of rhythm and that's what cost you in the end. If you play them and they get injured, then you're touted as a fool for playing the guys and setting them up to get hurt. The only way to win in this situation is to win the Superbowl. And only one of the two teams can do that. Me personally? I'd play them. From what I've seen in recent years, teams that rest their guys often end up losing fairly early. Teams that play their starters through the whole 16 weeks usually come into the playoffs with better momentum and better understanding. It's not a science though, more of a hybrid between art and luck. It'll be interesting to see which teams perish and which prevail, and what their various strategies are.

Monday Night Football round up

Monday night has been and gone, kind of, so it's time to recap the Monday night game and check my last pick of Week 14: Cardinals 9 @ 49ers 24 -- Well I'll be damned. You have to love the Arizona Cardinals. One week they basically dominate the Vikings, shutting down Adrian Peterson on the ground and making life a nightmare for QB Brett Favre. Then they come back next week and let Frank Gore tear them apart while Alex Smith picks some holes through the air! For weeks I've been bemoaning the need for Gore to get more action. Well, the call has been answered my friends! 25 carries for 167 yards and a TD is just what the doctor ordered. Tack on 144 yards through the air plus 2 more TD's and we have us a ball game. Of course, the real victors here are the 49ers defense. 2 interceptions and 6 forced fumbles (5 recovered by the 49ers) is quite the tally. Patrick Willis especially stood up to be counted by his team, leading the unit confidently with 9 tackles, a sack and a forced fumble. If the 49ers can keep this up they still have an outside shot at making the playoffs (probably through a wildcard). It's unlikely, but not impossible. The question is can they keep this up each week, especially with Philadelphia next on the schedule (!!). As for the Cards, they can probably recover from this and go on to take the division, but Head Coach Ken Wisenhunt must be mad as hell!!! So with that pick gone, it leaves me 11-5 for the week, which I think is my best so far. There were some fundamentally stupid picks this week (Seahawks, Broncos) but you can't argue. If they'd gone right I wouldn't be bitching so hey, ho, and away we go. That now leaves me 78-41 since starting in Week 7. That leaves me with a win percentage of just over 65%. Ok, but must try harder I think. Need to make less stupid picks.

Week 14 round up

All the action from Sunday is done, which means it's time for a recap of the days games: Saints 26 @ Falcons 23 -- A friend of mine (yeah, I have some) recently called me out on the fact that I don't believe the Saints are the best team in the league. This result goes a long way to showing why. In their last two games the "Best team in the NFL" has ridden it's luck almost to the point of exhaustion. And to beat who? The Vikings, the Cardinals, the Colts, the Packers? Nope, the Redskins and the Falcons, who are essentially among the bottom feeders this year. Last week the Redskins went out of their way to give the Saints as many second chances as possible, including a missed chip shot field goal that would have won the game in the dying seconds. This week they got the luckiest of lucky pass interference calls. What should have been an interception on a 3rd and 10 instead became a near enough 30 yard gain which set up a score for Reggie Bush. Then later in the game Darren Sharper, the "Best safety and/or ball hawk in the league right now" got absolutely toasted ("victimised" to use a commentators turn of phrase) for an easy TD. I'm happy that I got the pick, but I'm gutted a little about the way it's happened and that the Saints will still be hauling in the plaudits tomorrow morning. Lions 3 @ Ravens 48 -- I'm a huge fan of running the football. It takes a certain degree of determination and physicality to pull it off, but when you do, it can be just as explosive as any passing attack. Run the ball, play great defense. That's the motto. That's Ravens football. And the Ravens made a point of that today. Ok, so it was against the Lions, but who else has trashed Detroit by 45 points this season? On 40 rushing plays they generated 308 yards of offense and 5 touchdowns. If you exclude receivers and QBs, 4 different Ravens had carries which helps take some of the load off Ray Rice. And all this largely dictates the type of looks you're gonna get from the defense and subsequently makes life so much easier for Joe Flacco. He completed just 13 of 20 passes, but notched 230 yards, a TD, and crucially no picks. All this helps to keep the Ravens D off the field where they can rest and talk with the coaches, which is bad news for a Lions team missing Matthew Stafford. His replacement Daunte Culpepper completed less than half of his 34 passes and threw 2 INTs as well. This Ravens team has an outside shot at a wildcard place and if they get it, and continue to play like this, they will go far. Packers 21 @ Bears 14 -- The Packers just keep on rolling. They threw, they ran and they picked the ball off. It's the big 'M' word. Momentum. That's what the Packers are taking with them as they make a late run for the postseason. The Bears on the other hand combined for just 17 total rushes and Cutler handily turned the ball over twice. They just look poor right now. Worse, they look like Seattle...... Seahawks 7 @ Texans 34 -- ....... And speak of the devil. My upset pick for the 'Hawks was based on the premise that lately they've been very keen to develop a ground game to make themselves less predictable. Oops! The Texans ran it more, and better, as well as passing for 365 yards and 2 TD's. Of course it helps when you have a guy like Matt Schaub throwing to a guy like Andre Johnson, who turned 11 receptions into 193 yards and 2 TDs. The Texans are a good team, they just don't always play like it. Broncos 16 @ Colts 28 -- I'm a big believer in playing to your relative strengths and getting the ball to your play makers. 21 receptions for Brandon Marshall may be taking that idea a little literally though. But that was far from the Broncos biggest problem. Two thinks you need to understand. 1) In the redzone, you need to score. You need 100% efficiency. The Colts were 4/4, the Broncos 2/4. No surprises then that the Colts won. 2) Peyton Manning does not throw 3 interceptions per game on a regular basis. That means that when he does, you have to punish him. The Broncos failed to do that. On a side note, I'm just wondering if the Colts will ever be called this season for running what are supposedly illegal 'pick/rub' plays. I counted at least three, two for touchdowns. Dolphins 14 @ Jaguars 10 -- There is a simple logic to this game. The Dolphins looked at Ricky Williams and said "yeah, you're pretty good. We'll run it and set up some play action". And they did, giving Williams 28 carries for 108 yards and a TD. The Jaguars meanwhile looked at Maurice Jones-Drew and said "We don't have a god damn clue what we're doing, so how about just 18 carries for the day". And they did, giving him 18 carries for 59 yards and a TD. Meanwhile, Rashad Jennings had his mandatory 2 carries slashed in half this week, but he took it on the chin and clocked 10 yards. Chad Henne played his part for Dolphins, and despite throwing a pick and no TDs, managed to put 220 yards on the board to help things along. Bills 16 @ Chiefs 10 -- The Bills passing game sucked and their rush defense was practically non-existent, but never fear Bills fans, luckily Matt Cassel has arrived to save the day! No-one seems to have cottoned on yet that much of Matt Cassels success last year was down to a certain receiving combination by the name of Moss and Welker Ltd. That would explain why he went 26/43 for 224 yards, no touchdowns and a handsome 4 interceptions. Jamaal Charles must have been seething, as his 20 carries for 143 yards and a TD went unnoticed. One day people will wake up and realise that even the worst rushing attack in the league could take the Bills defense for at least 200 yards if given the chance. As it stands, the Bills slip through another game. Bengals 10 @ Vikings 30 -- I love teams that run the football, but it has to be understood that one of the reasons for running the ball so much is to try and get the defense to play with 8 in the box and man coverage on the outside. When that happens, you have to take your shots down field. You have to use play action and try and get big chunks of yardage/scores off of a relatively fewer number of passes. Not 94 yards off 25 passes. The Bengals lacked a down field game whereas the Vikings didn't. That pretty much sums this one up. Panthers 10 @ Patriots 20 -- I give up on the Panthers. I hate them with a passion now. I can't blame Panthers fans who simply refuse to go and watch games. 'Cos I can at least understand the thinking behind why you would throw so much with Jake Delhomme. You're the coach, it's your responsibility to do what you think is best for your team. If that means throwing the ball 40 times a game and hoping Steve Smith will break off a big play or two, then so be it. It's a fatally flawed strategy (Delhomme + 40 throws = muchos interceptions) but at least you believe it's the right one. But when Delhomme isn't playing through injury, how in Gods name can you justify giving the ball to backup Matt Moore and asking him to throw 30 passes? There isn't a way in hell that you could possibly believe that to be a superior strategy to running the ball with Williams and Stewart. Or to put it another way, when you have one of the best running back tandems in the NFL, it's inexplicable that they should combine for less carries than Laurence Maroney. The Panthers deserve to get beaten for this. It's a shame it wasn't by more than just 10 points. I hate the Panthers. Jets 26 @ Buccaneers 3 -- 33 pass attempts, 93 yards, 0 touchdowns, 3 interceptions. That pretty much sums up the Buccaneers day on offense. The Jets took a more grounded approach and it paid dividends today. Rams 7 @ Titans 47 -- Steve Spagnuolo must be wishing he'd stayed with the Giants. His defensive unit played woefully, but not as bad as backup QB Keith Null who managed to turn 43 pass attempts into 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions. On the other side of the ball Vince Young went down injured, so no doubt many Titans fans were looking rather edgy to see Collins enter the game. Luckily for them the Titans limited him to 19 throws which produced a TD and no picks. Johnson had another big day on the ground but probably not enough to keep him on course to break Eric Dickersons record. Redskins 34 @ Raiders 13 -- Gradkowski is hardly the Messiah of Oakland, but at least he's not JaMarcus Russell. So I bet Raiders fans were in shock to see their much maligned, multi millionaire signal caller trot out onto the field for the second half...... only to promptly get sacked 6 times as well as throwing an interception. The truth is that the Redskins D is pretty handy. Helps though when you're playing the Raiders. Quinton Ganther got 14 carries for Washington, notching up 50 yards and 2 TDs, proving yet again that it's the Redskins O-line and not Clinton Portis that's been working so well all this time. Chargers 20 @ Cowboys 17 -- Literally a field goal divided the two teams. Having picked off Philip Rivers the Cowboys had a shot at a field goal from about 42 yards and they miss. That ultimately costs them the game. That, and their inability to finish one drive by stuffing the ball in the endzone despite having 4 shots at it from close range. On the opposite side of the field, Norv Turner consistently built drives and used his two backs as pass protectors to allow Rivers to take deep shots down the field. When it came to the crunch he handed the ball to no.21 LT who did what he does best and stuffed that rock in there. The Chargers look impressive, but bizarrely so do the Cowboys, if they could just iron out some of the wrinkles. Eagles 45 @ Giants 38 -- This game was without question the finest game of football I've ever watched. It was open and dramatic and just simply phenomenal to watch. DeSean Jackson is crazy good. The kid has out of this world talent. Well either that or like Chris Johnson he's just realised that when you only weigh around 170 pounds then no safety in the country has a chance of catching you. And the fact that the Giants secondary was appalling. Leonard Weaver continued to impress for the Eagles as well. Brandon Jacobs continues to make a case for why he should get more carries. And Tom Coughlin will want to know how his team scored 38 points and racked up 512 yards of total offense, yet still managed to lose the game. The stats for certain individuals also don't tell the whole story. Take for example Trent Cole. 4 tackles, 2 assists and a forced fumble. He was everywhere in this game and he made plays at crucial times. His hustle set the tone for his entire team. Then we have Hakeem Nicks. 4 catches, 110 yards and a TD. But honestly, he was bad. He dropped two clangers first then later caught a pass in the endzone... but couldn't keep his feet in bounds, largely due to drifting so wide through poor route technique. Michael Vick only threw two passes and ran the ball 3 times, including a TD, but he always looked a threat and his 32 yard completion was thrown near enough flat. Whoever gets him next year gets a big time weapon. So, there we have it, that's all the games from this week so far. Tomorrow my superstar 49ers (yeah, ok) play host to the Cardinals in that frozen wasteland otherwise known as Candlestick Park. And I'm backing the Cardinals in that one. As for this week, so far I am......... 11-4!!! If it wasn't for the damn Steelers losing to the Browns, the Panthers being idiots as usual (I hate them), and me picking the Seahawks and the Broncos for upsets that were less likely than a JaMarcus Russell league MVP, then I could have swept clean so far!! Hopefully the Cards will carry me to 12 wins tomorrow. And if they don't I win anyway.

Week 14 picks

As I type this right now, my 1 year old nephew is sleeping in his chair next to me, so in case he wakes up, this is going to have to be a little brief: Saints @ Falcons -- As over rated as I think the Saints are, even I'm not stupid enough to take the Falcons. Saints win. Lions @ Ravens -- This could be a trick game for the Ravens. Lately they've been abysmal, but luckily the Lions are just as bad. Ravens win. Packers @ Bears -- The Packers are flying right now. In the true fashion of many teams that have had deep playoff runs, everything is coming together for them just at the right time, in all phases of the game. The Bears are the Bears. Packers win. Seahawks @ Texans -- The Texans have been rubbish lately while the Seahawks are trying to run the ball and bring a new aspect to their game. I think the 'hawks might pull an upset special. Seahawks win. Broncos @ Colts -- Hmm, toughy. Indy has a habit of barely scraping through their games and the Broncos have finally learnt that they can still run their impressive zone-stretch runs. I don't think the Colts will take their foot of the gas, but I do think the Broncos can pull off an upset. Broncos win. Dolphins @ Jaguars -- Do I have to pick a winner? Both teams are too unpredictable for my liking. I think the Jags have a better run game but the Dolphins have a much better D. Dolphins win. Bills @ Chiefs -- God this game looks terrible on paper. Anyone that has to watch this game has my sympathy, more so if you're a Chiefs fan because I think the Bills edge it. Bills win. Bengals @ Vikings -- I think Brett Favre will watch game film from last Sunday night and think to himself "I can't let that happen again". The Vikings also get CB Antoine Winfield back from injury this week. Vikings win. Panthers @ Patriots -- The Patriots D sucks of late, especially against the run. This might be the chance the Panthers need to break out their running game. I actually think the Panthers might win it. Panthers win. Jets @ Buccaneers -- Another terrible game. Expect Rex Ryan to dial up some serious pressure on rookie QB Josh Freeman and either live or die by the blitz. Jets win. Rams @ Titans -- The Rams rush defense against Chris Johnson? Titans win. Redskins @ Raiders -- Bruce Gradkowski has a mean threat ahead of him with the Redskins coming to town. Their pass defense has been really good, and they were the first team (bizarrely) to take the Saints to overtime this season. I like what I'm seeing in Washington of late. Redskins win. Chargers @ Cowboys -- Tony Romo needs another huge game, as does the Cowboys D. And their rushing attack. And their special teams. And that's just to keep pace with the Chargers. Chargers win. Eagles @ Giants -- Have the Giants bounced back after stumbling recently? Nope. Meanwhile the Eagles are starting to integrate a rushing attack to complement their explosive pass game. Eagles win. Cardinals @ 49ers -- If the Cards win this one, they win the NFC West and book a place in the playoffs. See you in January then. Cardinals win.

Week 14 Thursday night Recap

The dust has settled, the seats are empty and the teams are on their respective ways home, so it must be time for a recap of Thursday Night Football: Steelers 6 @ Browns 13 -- My god. Just, wow. I have to eat some humble pie here. I didn't think the Steelers D was as bad as everyone makes out. But some of the tackling I witnessed would make an 8 year old linebacker sick with embarrassment. It was terrible. Losing to the Browns is not a good sign. But only putting 6 points on the board is even worse. Couple that with losses to the Chiefs and Raiders and there is an argument to be made that the Steelers are the second worst team in the NFL right now, after the Lions. I'm just speechless. As I type this, I'm not thinking anything other than 'holy crap, how did that happen?'. Well, I can make some educated guesses. Take for example the Steelers offense. Their O-line drew a huge amount of criticism last year for not protecting Big Ben. Now some of that has to be put on the shoulders of the QB for constantly scrambling and extending plays past their lifespan. But this week I think both the line and the QB have to shoulder some of the blame for conceding 8 sacks. 8. That contributed a grand total of 60 negative yards. To the Browns..... But it's just another symptom of the Steelers overall. Their line is built for the run. Their defense is built to complement a running game. Their draft strategy has always assumed a heavy dose of the run. And yet here they are, in December, throwing 32 passes. 32. Tack on the 8 sacks and we have 40 pass attempts, out of 62 rushing/passing plays. And just to remind you, this is the Steelers we're talking about right. Rashard Mendenhall got just 16 carries. 'Fast' Willie Parker is fast becoming an unused asset, with just 3 carries. This is chronic. If I was the Steelers GM I'd be pulling Head Coach Mike Tomlin to one side after the game and suggesting that maybe it's time to ask the offensive co-ordinator what the hell he thinks he's doing. Not that Bruce Arians or any other offensive co-ordinator is gonna listen. This is the NFL right! The National Flag League, where only passing matters. Well tuck into your offense Pittsburgh, because it's killing your football team. Shame. So, that's me off to a now typical 0-1 start. Either tomorrow or Saturday I shall put up my picks for the rest of Week 14.

Thursday Night pick

Well, due to unforeseen circumstances involving buses, government paperwork, a defective computer and it's defective operator (not me I might add) Extra Credit was missed yesterday and will have to skipped this week unfortunately. What I can squeeze into my schedule is my Thursday Night pick for week 14: Steelers @ Browns -- This is an uglier pick than you might imagine. The temptation is to flatly anoint the Steelers as victors. But the Browns do have a few tricks up their sleeve. Take for example their return game. Josh Cribbs has a penchant for explosive plays on punt and kick returns. The Steelers meanwhile have a penchant for giving up big plays when covering punts and kicks. Even if any resulting score (or scores) don't contribute immensely to the points tally, the overall field position gains on each drive could. It makes it easier for the Browns, harder for the Steelers. And Brady Quinn and his offense hardly need much help of late. If I had got round to doing extra credit, Quinn would have got his fair helping. 3 TDs and nearly 300 yards of offense is pretty good for most teams. Given the Browns record of late, it's downright exceptional. They still haven't developed a proper and consistent downfield game to WR Mohamed Massaquoi, but they're getting there. Gradually. Very gradually. And just to make life easier, the Steelers defense is having a few troubles lately. I'm not entirely convinced by the doom and gloom predictions that a lot of people are touting, but it can't be overlooked that the Steelers Cornerbacks are yet to generate an interception this season. Looking at the Steelers scores over the their recent games, you can see how an interception or two might have helped them out a little. But there is hope. With change supposedly in the air in Pittsburgh, they may just be about to revive their running game and return to true Steeler football. That means less sacks, less interceptions, more time run off the clock and more rest for their defense. All these things could contribute to a much improved Steelers team. The playoffs are not completely out of sight, but they need to turn things around in Ohio this week. I think they will. Steelers win.

Week 13 recap

It's Monday night, it's time for a recap of Week 13: Eagles 34 @ Falcons 7 -- Michael Vick returned to Atlanta and scooped his first touchdown since joining the Eagles. Now I'm not sure where he'll end up after next years transfer carousel has stopped, but whoever gets him is gonna have a fine year. He starting to click now inside that offense and show flashes of the old Vick. Of course it helps when you're surrounded by talent like the Eagles have. Unfortunately for the Falcons meanwhile, they have a ton of talent but no decent QB to find it as Matt Ryan is still out. Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling are not bad RBs, but they have little chance to shine when you're throwing 44 times a game. This is why teams lose games 34-7. Buccaneers 6 @ Panthers 16 -- My god, the Panthers actually came through!!! I nearly had a heart attack when I looked at the final score. Matt Moore still managed to throw a pick on his limited 20 throws, but the Panthers came up trumps as Jonathan Stewart stepped into the breech for the injured DeAngelo Williams and reminded everyone he's still an excellent back. Of course, the fact that Josh Freeman threw 5 picks, 3 in and around the endzone kinda helped as well. What makes it more surprising is the fact that he threw 44 passes against a good pass defense while the limited carries of the running backs (23) produced 124 yards against a bad rush defense. Some coaches are their own worst enemies. Rams 9 @ Bears 17 -- Jay Cutler. 17 throws, one TD, 0 picks. Matt Forte. 24 carries, 91 yards, 1 TD. This is Bears football, well at least it's getting there. Steven Jackson of the Rams carried 28 times but was largely kept in check by the Bears. All in all, a woeful game of football. Lions 13 @ Bengals 23 -- Cedric Benson is back. 36 carries, 110 yards. Why, for the love of god, would you give your prize back 36 carries against one of the worst teams in the league, when you have two good back ups to spell for him, and knowing that your place in the playoffs is close to being guaranteed? The Bengals already seem determined to take themselves out of contention for the Superbowl. Titans 17 @ Colts 27 -- Well, that's the Titans done for the year. Now please explain something to me, if you know, because I can't understand this. As a Head Coach you know that throwing the ball 40 times a game with Kerry Collins was a big part of what was killing you. When Vince Young came in, he threw the ball occasionally, held onto it, ran a few times, and let the clock run down while letting Chris Johnson batter teams senseless. So why in the hell would you come back and throw 43 passes? Of which nearly half were incomplete. Chris Johnson got 27 carries, but what happened to Vince just getting 4. Or LenDale White getting 2? Do people actually remember that White was a big factor in the Titans rushing attack last year? This kind of stuff annoys the hell out of me. Meanwhile Peyton Manning continues to make good defenses look average. Texans 18 @ Jaguars 23 -- The Jags came out and got their run/pass balance just about perfect. The Texans came out and had three different players throw interceptions. That pretty much sums it up. Also loving the way that Rashad Jennings only gets 2 carries per game. At a guess I'd say there is something in his contract that would pay him a bonus if he gets more than x carries per game/season. That's the only thing I can think of. Broncos 44 @ Chiefs 13 -- The Broncos stuffed the Chiefs with almost 250 yards on the ground. I like it. The Chiefs on the other hand came out and played, like the Chiefs. Which explains why they got beaten so badly. Patriots 21 @ Dolphins 22 -- HA!! Bill Belichick went for it on fourth down again with a field goal the better option, and surprise, surprise, it came back to bite him in the butt. It's like he is determined to prove that his decision was right. And this is what I love about all the stats people who backed Belichick last time. If the stats are so reliable then the Pats should have made at least one of these two big fourth downs. But instead they've made neither. Proof that football is not poker and there is more to play calling than knowing percentages. This percentages folly has now cost the Pats two huge games. I hope Bill and the game theory lovers are happy. And could someone please explain what the hell Chad Henne is doing throwing 52 passes? Raiders 27 @ Steelers 24 -- Holy Bruce Gradkowski Batman!!! 20/33, 308 yards and 3 TDs. For the Raiders, that practically makes you Johnny Unitas. But what is more chilling is to see the Steelers chucking the ball like they were the Patriots. They have an awesome ground game and their QB has recently suffered a concussion. Now bearing in mind that the Raiders rush defense is hardly like.... say, the Steelers, why not just stuff it down their throat? People keep criticising the Steelers D but they are actually still playing pretty good. Lay off the D, question the O. And well done the Raiders. Saints 33 @ Redskins 30 -- For once, divine intervention was on my side. Not once, not twice, not even three, nor four times... but fully five times the gods of football swooped to try and save my pick. More to the point, they swooped to save the Saints. A muffed punt return, an interception in the endzone that was then stripped and returned for a TD, a missed field goal from 23 yards, an interception in the dying seconds and then a fumble in overtime. Everyone in the entire USA is over flowing with plaudits and praise for the New Orleans Saints, supposedly tied with the Colts for the title of best team in football. What no-one is saying (and everyone seems to be conveniently over looking) is "how in the world did the Saints escape with that one?". The Redskins rank as one of the worst offenses in football right now, yet somehow the much vaunted Saints D gave up 30 points to them. And man, the list of miscues on the Redskins side of the ball that lead to the Saints win is pretty hard to cover up. If I was Redskins top man Jim Zorn I'd be feeling a mixture of anger and disbelief after that one. The Redskins had the "best team in the NFC" beat fair and square, and some how they threw it away. Just like the Dolphins did earlier in the season. When the Saints finally lose, I can't wait to hear the crying. Chargers 30 @ Browns 23 -- By all accounts, this was no where near as close as the final scoreline. Still, nod to Brady Quinn for throwing 3 TDs and no INTs, didn't think he had it in him. But they still threw 45 passes compared to 22 rushes (including QB scrambles). Compare that to the Chargers who threw 25 passes versus 28 rushes (including QB scrambles) and completed 18 for 373 yards and 2 TDs while LT punched in another on the ground. The thing about the Chargers is they grind you out and take measured shots when they know they can get a good gain. Their recent record speaks for itself. Cowboys 24 @ Giants 31 -- Nick Folk missed two field goals for the Cowboys, costing them six points. But they still would have lost by 1. Make no mistake, the Romo friendly offense is to blame. 41/55 (which is pretty damn good), 392 yards and 3 TDs. That's great, but it also means you're stuck in a potential shootout. The Cowboys have the rushing attack to take down a team like the Giants, but they simply refuse to use it. Subsequently, they give teams plenty of time and chances to beat them, which is exactly what happened. Giving up a 79 yard punt return didn't help either..... 49ers 17 @ Seahawks 20 -- Explain the logic; you have Frank Gore, a pro bowl caliber running back, and you only give him 9 carries. Even the Seahawks aren't that stupid. Gotta love the way as well that a blatant pass interference in the end zone went un called. If that had been Indy or New Orleans, the end zone would have turned yellow with flags. Vikings 17 @ Cardinals 30 -- Watching the game, four things stood out above all. First, the Vikings lack of a deep threat until about the 4th quarter. Every pass seemed to be headed out toward the flats or the 10 yard outs. No doubt this contributed to allowing the Cards to play shorter in their zones and stuff Peterson. Not that Peterson was given a chance mind. A paltry 13 carries. Yes the Cards were doing well against the run, but largely because the Vikings tried to use wide rushes that appeared to take an age to develop. It was remarkable to see a key weapon so under utilised. Not like the Cards mind, who appreciate that Warner is still their best choice. And a large part of that is his willingness to throw to Fitzgerald and Boldin, his two best receivers, who caught 15 of the 22 completions for a combined 241 yards and 3 TDs. 5 other players caught a single pass and another caught 2. The Cards put the ball in the hands of their best guys and lit it rip. Which is akin to what their D-line did. By any standard, the Cardinals front line are undersized. But they have great speed, technique and determination, which allowed them to register 3 sacks and get wide on the outside runs. They put in a sterling evenings work and were worthy winners. The Cards looked as dangerous in this game as they did during the playoffs last year, and that's where they'll be headed again if they secure a win next week. Ravens 14 @ Packers 27 -- 'Air Flacco' continues to experience turbulence on Monday Night Football. Just 15/36, for a paltry 137 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs. Ray Rice.... just 14 carries. The Ravens made the playoffs, going all the way to the AFC championship game, last year by running the ball, eating the clock, taking controlled chances in the passing game and playing tough on defense. This year they've become just the latest victim of the pass happy NFL. Meanwhile the Packers continue to improve, giving up just the one sack on offense while piling up 3 on defense, 3 interceptions and a forced fumble. Not bad at all. So that's my picks done for the week and I finished 10-6 again. Seem to have a thing about only picking 10 winners. And for a change this week, the Panthers, Dolphins and Saints all did me a favour. Somethings wrong, I can feel it. That now means that my overall tally since week 7 is now: 67-36. Not bad. Not great either. Still, look on the bright side, tomorrow is Extra Credit time.

Holding the line

So my mission today should I choose to accept it (which I will) is to convince you that offensive and defensive linemen are more important than highly paid Quarterbacks, Running backs, receivers, linebackers, and pretty much any other position on the field. I feel confident in this mission, so here goes. Running the football: Running the football does not require an 'elite' back. Larry Johnson, now of the Cincinnati Bengals, is 30 years old. His production has waned in recent years, partly due to a Kansas team that has bought into the pass happy mentality of the NFL. Yet for the Bengals he has already busted out a 100 yard rushing game. As has Cedric Benson, considered by many as a flop at his previous team the Chicago Bears. The fact is, the Bengals line are good at run blocking. They are organised, determined and physical, everything a good O-line should be. The reality is that those 5 offensive linemen can, with the help of a tight end, block six defensive linemen/linebackers (leaving one LB on the backside unblocked) and give your running back ample room to move and get going. Most rushing plays that break the line of scrimmage end one of two ways; tackled around the 10-15 yard area or busted for a big gain. Simply put, the linemen get you those first 5-10 yards, then the combination of speed & skill of the RB coupled with position and tackling skills of the secondary get you the rest. Many big runs feature power football, that is the pulling of a guard to lead block for the RB. The guard needs quick feet and good technique, but the rewards of finding such a player are ample. Combined with a big, strong tackle to help seal the edge, they are often the catalyst to most big gains. And your running back really doesn't have to be all that. If the O-line can clear a hole, any reasonably quick player can get through it. Passing game: The passing game starts with the O-line. They block and keep the QB upright. No protection equals no time, which equals bad plays. Rarely does a defensive back make an exceptional play on the ball. 9 times out 10 it's a mis throw by the QB. And the cause of that is usually bad protection. Take Tom Brady for example. Teams have learnt that dropping guys off into coverage rarely stops 'Tom Terrific' for very long. Eventually he will find holes. What they have learnt is that by rushing him hard and getting the blitz going they can force him to make quick decisions, and even Tom Brady isn't unflappable. Even he makes mistakes under pressure. Nearly all humans do. So much of Brady's success lies in the hands of his guys up front. And it's the same for almost all QB's. Now granted there is only so much they can do. If you hold the ball forever then eventually the protection will break down (just ask Aaron Rodgers), but a good O-line provides the extra fractions of a second and the extra comfort that is required for a great passing play to develop properly. Without a good O-line, a good quarterback is nothing more than a target (David Garrard at the Jaguars). Highly paid receivers will do nothing more than run endlessly downfield only to look back and see their leader crushed beneath a pile of opposition jerseys. The O-line creates the time and space, the O-line makes it happen. Defense: As I said earlier, it's uncommon for interceptions to be made due to awesome defensive play. It happens, but mostly they seem to result from bad plays by the QB. Under thrown passes, passes into closed throwing lanes, that kind of stuff. The biggest cause of that is defensive pressure, generated by D-linemen. They sack QBs, stuff runs and force bad throws. In short, everything. A tough Defensive line can shed blocks and close down an oppositions run game. Or they can consume offensive linemen, push them around to close holes and open up areas for the linebackers to get free attacks downhill on the running back. In the pass game they generate pressure off the edge and up the middle, closing the pocket around the QB, denying him the opportunity to step up and make throws. They get hands up to bat down passes. They tug the QB's jersey, strip the ball from his hand or sack the guy. They get hits before and after the throw and generally make his life uncomfortable. D-line are the beating heart of any defense. There is probably many more things that you could go into, but there's no real need. Hopefully these short passages should be enough to convince even some of the more QB friendly among you that good linemen, both offensive and defensive, are worth their weight in gold. They make everything else tick, make everyone else look better than they really are, and generally prop up their football club. Linemen, you have my respect!

Week 13 NFL picks

It's Friday Night, possibly Saturday morning, but who cares.... it's time to make my Week 13 picks!!: Eagles @ Falcons -- Oh no. I've seen chocolate barbeque's that are more reliable than these two. Much of this game hinges on the respective offenses. Namely because we know the Falcons D will give up yards on the ground and the Eagles D will chew up Falcons back up QB Chris Redman. If the Eagles run the ball with LeSean McCoy and Leonard Weaver it will ease a lot of pressure off of Donovan McNabb and open opportunities for some play action as well. If the Falcons run they can make good gains, but passing will be tricky with one of the NFL's few true ball hawks in Asante Samuel on the opposite side. Ultimately I like the Eagles in this one because I think they have a greater potential to generate explosive plays both offensively and on special teams. Eagles win. Buccaneers @ Panthers -- Don't even get me started on the Panthers (I hate the Panthers). This week I refuse to even talk about them, because no matter what I say they'll contrive a way to do the opposite. So let's just talk Buccaneers shall we? Well, the Buc's don't have a run game so that's half their offense covered. As for the other half.... it's not bad. Rookie QB Josh Freeman is showing flashes of potential and they have one of the best receiving corps in the game (hopefully in the next year or two Freeman will develop into a QB finally capable of exploiting them fully). The trouble is, they're playing against the NFL's 4th ranked pass defense. And when you're as one dimensional as the Buc's are right now, that's not good. Panthers win. (maybe I should say Buc's win, so then the Panthers will win it just to prove me wrong? A little reverse psychology.....) uh, I mean Buc's win. Yeah, definitely the Buccaneers. Rams @ Bears -- I actually have to think about this one. That speaks volumes about the Bears right now. The Rams are bad, we all know that. RB Steven Jackson is just about the only light at the end of the tunnel for them. But then, the Bears are bad too. They give up a ton of yards on the ground and Jay Cutler throws away interceptions like they were going out of fashion. My gut instinct is to say Rams purely because of the turnovers, but as bad as they are, I think the Bears will just about pull through. The result will tell us a lot about them as a team. Bears win. Lions @ Bengals -- Bengals win. Next..... no seriously, the Lions have no defense. None. The Bengals have a solid passing attack and a solid run game. It's a no brainer. Bengals win. Titans @ Colts -- Oh mamma, what a game!! The Titans are on a roll right now, but then so are the Colts. It seems that no matter what happens, Peyton Manning is able to bring his team back from the brink time and time again. There's someone else that used to do that a lot, and his name was (is) Joe Montana. The difference between the two is that Montana has more Superbowl rings than will fit on one hand (if you take into account his wedding ring) whereas Manning has just the solitary 2006 title. On the opposite sideline, Vince Young has none. And until their recent mid-season revival no-one expected the Titans to change that. This game could give us a glimpse into who will be representing the AFC in the Superbowl. If the Colts win, the Titans are unlikely to make the playoffs. If the Titans win, it's difficult to see anyone else stopping them and that includes during the playoffs. In the grand scheme of things I think the Colts have had some fortuitous play calls go in their favour that have kept crucial drives alive. I think they're a little too one dimensional and I think the Titans secondary is ready for them this time. Couple that with a varied and explosive Titans offense and we have our winner. Titans win. Texans @ Jaguars -- Ugly game. Both teams have their problems. Houston has a good offense in general but it has a tendency to blow up in their face at the most inopportune moments, while their defense lacks any real playmakers. The Jaguars have a great RB in Maurice Jones-Drew and a solid speller in Rashad Jennings, but they really love David Garrard. And that's their big problem. They're so sold on the pass happy mentality of the NFL that they can't see the damage it's doing to their ball club. Turnovers, incomplete passes, all of these are drive killers. If they get pass happy at home against the Texans then they'll lose, but I have a feeling that this week they may just try and grind it out on the ground, keep that potentially explosive Texans O of the field, and that will win them the game. Jaguars win. Broncos @ Chiefs -- Another ugly one. Credit where it's due to the Chiefs for trying to capture some of the offense flair that Head Coach Todd Haley had as the Offensive Co-ordinator of the Cardinals, but I just don't see it in this one. The Broncos don't have too much to shout about, but they have more than the Chiefs. Broncos win. Patriots @ Dolphins -- The wisdom of the world says that the Pats will come into this one looking to put the hurt on the Dolphins. Like they were supposed to do at home earlier this year? Everyone is drawing attention to the vulnerable Dolphins secondary against the Patriots big time offense, but I think we also need to look at the Pats defense for a second. It's not exactly shutting teams down is it? And we all know that the 'Phins will run the ball with Ricky Williams, don't we? You never can tell with the Dolphins. They damn well better, because I'm taking them on this one. Dolphins win. Raiders @ Steelers -- Ha! Don't get all excited about the Raiders offense over the last few weeks. I know everyone is still recoiling from the fact that the Raiders are completing more than 10 passes per game, but the Steelers might just return things to the Status Quo. Expect a healthy dose of blitzing to put Gradkowski under pressure. The Steelers may or may not get Ben Roethlisberger back this week, but it matters little. Their ground game should be enough to see this one out. Steelers win. Saints @ Redskins -- Uh oh, it's the Saints in a very much losable(?) game again. They're probably still on a high after beating the Patriots on Monday and this week they face the NFL's number one ranked pass defense. I cannot begin to tell you how tempted I am to take the Redskins. It's like an itch that just has to be scratched. But this one will be left un-scratched. 'Cos the Saints are gonna clean up. The Redskins just don't have enough offense to compete. They struggle to score 20 points on a consistent basis and even a restricted Saints team should be able to put that on the board. One offensive turnover for the Redskins and they're done for. Saints win. Chargers @ Browns -- Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Shawn Merriman & Antonio Cromartie vs Jamal Lewis, Josh Cribbs, ......... and that's it. This is mismatch city and the Browns are on the bad end of it. Chargers win. Cowboys @ Giants -- The Giants are reportedly shaking up their defensive line by pushing Osi Umenyiora and Fred Robbins to the practice squad, while promoting Mathias Kiwanuka and Chris Canty to starters for the divisional game against the Cowboys. I think it's gonna take more than that to save them. The Cowboys are trying to find themselves this December. After years of mediocrity they are determined to succeed this time round. And owner Jerry Jones has wisely instructed his coaches that Felix Jones is to help lead the way. And lead he will. Jones, (the RB, not the owner) displays vision, strength, agility, balance and speed in equal measure. And the Cowboys are starting to realise that the best way to stop Tony Romo from screwing up their playoff hopes is to take the ball out of his hands more often and run it a little more. A lesson the Giants sorely need to learn for next season. Cowboys win. 49ers @ Seahawks -- It's about time my 49ers got a win and a game against Seattle is just what the doctor ordered. Even though they've abandoned their running game, the 49ers have a sufficiently competent passing attack to exploit the Seahawks woeful secondary. Meanwhile, the Seahawks tend to struggle unless they can get their run game going and against the 49ers that will prove difficult. 49ers win. Vikings @ Cardinals -- With concussions the new hot topic in the NFL, there are doubts as to whether the Cardinals will start QB Kurt Warner. No doubts in the Vikings camp about starting Brett Favre. Favre is on fire right now and his receivers are reaping the rewards. Adrian Peterson is still burning people for big runs when they try and sit back and play coverage to nulify Favre, and DE Jared Allen is leading the Vikings D on regular pillages into opposition backfields. All in all, the situation looks grim for a Cardinals team that has bizarrely struggled at home. Their rushing attack is finding it's feet, but that may not be enough to stop The Purple People Eaters this week. Vikings win. Ravens @ Packers -- Fresh off a win against the reigning Superbowl champions, the Ravens will come into this game with a spring in their step. But they'll need more than a spring to help them leap over the Green Bay Packers. The Packers offense is clicking nicely of late. Aaron Rodgers has finally learned that he's to blame for the fact that he spent so much time on the ground earlier in the season. He's finding his receivers and the Packers O benefits all round from that. Teams fear the pass and as they back off into cover, it opens lanes for RB Ryan Grant. What's more, the Packers D has suddenly coughed and choked into life in the last few weeks. Charles Woodson is greedily chalking up numbers all over his stat sheet and may have another big game against the free falling 'air Flacco'. Ray Rice is the still the Ravens best bet for generating some significant offense, but if the Ravens fall behind they will struggle to get back in it. Packers win. Right my Lords and Ladies, that's my picks for the week. Don't forget I'm already 0-1 this week thanks to the lacklustre Bills. Tomorrow I'm going to try and convince you that Linemen should earn more than Quarterbacks.......

Thursday Night recap

It's Thursday night which means, uhm, Thursday Night Football recap? Yeah!! Jets 19 @ Bills 13 -- God almighty I bet the fans couldn't wait for this one to finish. And while I think about it, and by 'it' I mean the word 'fans', this game was supposed to be a Bills home game. Yet the noise level suggested this was being played in the Meadowlands. It's odd because I read an article just the other day by a Bills fan that mentioned the lack of enthusiasm for the games played in Toronto. Anyway, back to the game and in true fashion for my picks, a team that I said would do one thing in fact did another. Just 15 passes from Sanchez before he limped off with an injury during the third quarter. Everyone is hailing it as terrible news, but I think it might actually be the best news Jets fans have heard all season and might even spark a late run at a Wildcard spot. As I feared, the Jets rushing attack blasted the Bills typically appalling run defense off the face of the Earth, clocking up 249 yards. But before Bills fans bemoan their defense too heavily, it's worth noting that the Bills offense were even worse. 9/23 for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Yeah, some of that has to do with the quality play of Jets CB Darrelle Revis who was assigned to shut down Terrell Owens (targeted 9 times, caught 3), but Lee Evans didn't exactly bolster his case for being the number 1 guy (targeted 7 times, caught 1). Granted, some of that just has to do with bad throwing. But the most cardinal sin for me; bad running. Just 19 carries between Jackson and Lynch, with Jackson taking 13. Now this surprised me. Yesterday I said Fred Jackson was better and I think all things considered, he is. But Lynch was obviously having a good game. He looked fired up, motivated, ready to try and win back his job. He busted out a 35 yard run in the 2nd quarter, then came right back on the next play and scored a TD. Then after that, just 1 more carry. I mean, are you kidding me? You run 35 yards then score a 15 yard TD on the next play, and your reward is to get just one extra carry? No wonder the Bills are in trouble. And more to the point, they've already cost me a pick. So there we have it, 0-1 already. With a busy weekend of action ahead there's always plenty of games to pick things up and get back in it. Tomorrow night I'll let you know who I'm backing.

Week 13 Thursday Night pick

It's Wednesday night, which can only mean one thing. Err, Thursday Night Football!!! Well, my Thursday night pick at least: Jets @ Bills -- This, for me, is a trap game. A lot depends on the approach that one team takes to this contest. Last time they played, the Jets tore a huge, gaping, massive hole through the Bills D. But they lost the game because they tried to be clever and throw it despite their obvious dominance on the ground (more on that later). The result was Mark Sanchez offering picks all over the place which the Bills secondary, and in particular safety Jairus Byrd, gobbled up. So the question is thus; can the Jets keep Sanchez's throwing to a minimum and let Thomas Jones and Shonne Greene tear the Bills a new one? Honestly, I don't see them doing it. They love the thought of the "Sanchise" way too much. That, coupled with the Bills offensive resurgence of late (getting the ball to Terrell Owens and realising that Fred Jackson is better than Marshawn Lynch) combines to give the Bills the win. I think. I hope. Bills win. And now from Buffalo to the global ether that is the Internet, and more specifically, to NFL.com. Senior analyst Pat Kirwan recently wrote an article (if your quick, it may still be on the front page) claiming that the end of "run the football and play great defense" may be at hand, and that the NFL is about to become a must-pass-first league. This nearly knocked me out of my chair. Either one of three things has happened here: a) A perfectly sane and normally excellent analyst was drugged, and in his pharmopsychologically (???) induced state, he temporarily went insane and wrote this article, or b) He was held at gun point by officials from the pass happy NFL who forced him to write the article, as they would love nothing more than (and have tried relentlessly) to see the NFL become a slightly more expensive version of flag football, or c) He actually meant it. My money is on a sort of bizarre combination of the first two. It has to be. No right minded, football loving (and football knowledgeable) individual would surely claim that if teams want to win the Superbowl these days, then they must abandon the concept of the run and solid defense, and instead kit themselves out with a first class passing attack. It makes no sense. Let's look at some opposite sides of the coin shall we? First, the top five teams for passing yards per game. These are, from top to bottom; Colts, Patriots, Texans, Saints, Cardinals. The Colts are undoubtedly the leagues leaders in passing. Peyton Manning leads a pass heavy attack that often functions like a well oiled machine. The Colts are also unbeaten. But they do have a tendency to fall behind until late in the game. The have a tendency to win games by the smallest of margins. They have a tendency to be otherwise out of a game until a handy flag appears (more on that later). And they are really only doing so well because this year their defense has played out of it's skin. Compare the Colts with the Patriots. The Pats put 59 on the board against the Titans which is the highest points tally scored by a single team, in one game, this season. There is no question that at times, Brady and his trusty receivers can make NFL defenses look average. But the Patriots defense has often come up short this season and subsequently the team as a whole has suffered. For a comparison, look no further than the Texans. Admittedly they've had some woes in the kicking game, but by and large, their very aggressive and competent pass offense has been unable to cover for the sore lack of talent on their defense. A problem the Saints have not had this season. Last season they did. The Saints still had an explosive passing attack. They lead the league in both passing and scoring. Drew Brees nearly cracked Dan Marinos record for passing yards in a single season. But ultimately the Saints finished 8-8 and bottom of the NFC South. The difference this year has been down to three things; a better running game, a much improved defense, and some lucky games where teams handed them the win. There is no glossing over that. Their high octane offense is not the reason they are undefeated. It's the more mundane "run the ball and play great defense" aspects that have turned them around. Sentiments shared by the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards made it to the Superbowl last year. They got a huge helping hand by virtue of playing in the NFC West, a virtue that has served them well again this season. They got a another helping hand in the playoffs courtesy of the Carolina Panthers (I hate the Panthers) who tried to play them at their own game and ended up turning the ball over 6 times from the QB position. This year the Cardinals were having problems again. Enter Chris 'Beanie' Wells and Tim Hightower, who have breathed life into an otherwise lacklustre rushing attack, helped in no small part by their Head Coach's desire to run the ball more. Still, the outlook for the Cards' this season is a little gray. Compare now if you will the other end of the spectrum, by looking at the top five teams for rushing yardage per game. These are, from top to bottom; Titans, Jets, Dolphins, Panthers, Saints. The Saints we've already covered and so need not trouble ourselves with again. But the other four teams have an interesting story to tell. Other than their high rushing yardage, they all share one bizarre trait in common. They throw the ball too much. Yes, too much. At the start of the season the Titans went with QB Kerry Collins. For some as yet unknown reason they decided that Collins would be their savior. Despite going 13-3, including a ten game winning streak the previous season, they largely abandoned their rushing attack and instead tried to get creative through the air. The end result was 8 interceptions and just a 54% completion rate in 6 games. Then they switched to Vince Young and started to focus more on their league leading rushing attack and now, surprise, surprise, they've won 5 on the trot. The story is familiar to all the four teams we're looking at now, not least the Jets. So far, Mark Sanchez has managed to clock up no less than 17 interceptions for the New Yorkers. It seems that no matter how hard Thomas Jones and Shonne Greene work on the ground, they can always rely on their QB to give the opposition a chance to get back into the game. Against the Bills in Week 6 the Jets ran the ball 40 times and clocked up 318 net yards rushing. That's about comparable with a lot of good QBs total yardage after throwing 40 times. But alas for the Jets, 30 pass attempts yielded just 96 net yards passing (when you take into account sacks) and a combined 6 interceptions (5 by Sanchez). Had they continued to run the ball more in a game which they were dominating on the ground, they would have firmly put the Bills in their place. The Dolphins can sympathise with this. When they met the New Orleans Saints in Week 7 (supposedly the best team in the NFL right now) they got off to a flying start. With the clock ticking away at the end of the first half, they lead 24-3. Thanks to a dumb timeout call they ended up going in leading just 24-10 instead of 24-6. And from there, things began to unravel. Chad Henne completed just 18/36 passes in the whole game and threw two interceptions in the second half, both returned for touchdowns. Miami abandoned it's run game for much of the second half and were brutally punished as a result. This is just one of many incidents where Miami has wandered from it's strengths and shot itself in the foot. But the true masters of this are the Carolina Panthers. They literally are the undisputed champions of throwing more than is healthy for them. Just look at QB Jake Delhomme. 18 interceptions. Only Jay Cutler has thrown more. But at least the Bears have an excuse. They have no run game to speak of (which is not Matt Forte's fault). The Panthers have DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, arguably the best running back tandem in the entire NFL. They have no excuse for throwing the ball as much as they do. And it's cost them games. Last year it cost them their place in the playoffs. Had they not blown it so fantastically against the Cardinals, they had a good shout at going all the way. Passing didn't help them win a Superbowl, it hindered them. All in all, the point I'm trying to make is that 'running the football and playing great defense', as a concept, is far from dead. Passing first and building your team around an explosive pass attack is not the way to win the Superbowl. Those that believe it will are headed for a serious head on collision with reality. And what makes this more frustrating is that I recently read on a college/high school coaches Internet forum that they are all expecting teams in the next five years to become much more run orientated to combat 'pass orientated defenses'. They profess that the cat and mouse game of offense/defense will cycle around and that power football will become en vogue once more. They believe they have wisely forseen the future of football by predicting this trend. No doubt they will smugly laugh and pat each other on the back, and claim that they all ought to be NFL coaches. The stark reality is that running the football has never been ineffective. There are ineffective ways of rushing and there are ineffective players in many rushing attacks (cough *Bears*), but running the football as a concept is perfectly sound, even now. It has nothing to do with 'pass orientated defenses' and everything to do with being solid, fundamental football. (I should just point out that the same coaching forum never hesitates to expound the virtues of the passing game and in particular the 'Spread'; the very thing that is sinking so many pro teams). And on one final note, I'd like to draw your attention to the Indianapolis Colts and their seemingly endless stream of pass interference calls. Now it's a given that a team that passes a lot is more likely to encounter a greater number of pass interference flags. They are simply presenting more opportunities for their receivers to be fouled. But you have to draw the line somewhere. The call they got on Sunday against the Texans was ludicrous. If it wasn't for a flag, the Colts game against the Patriots would likely have ended in a markedly different manner. Why is this of any significance? Like the Saints, it shows that luck has had no small part to play in their undefeated season so far, and it should serve as a caution to those who would tag them as 'the best team in the NFL'. Right, that's all for today. Tomorrow I'll be recapping the Jets/Bills game, Friday will bring my picks for the all the weekends NFL action, and on Saturday I'll try and convince you that the most important players on any team are the linemen....... And as always, if you're reading the blog and you like it, feel free to: a) use the feedback boxes at the bottom of the post, b) leave a comment, c) spread the word, Wherever you're and whatever you're doing (providing it's legal), have a good day.