My Week 9 NFL picks so far

Ok, so it's time to take a look at my Week 9 NFL picks so far. I'm pretty damn tired (our college team was playing today and we ended up in the pub): Redskins 17 @ Falcons 31: Matt Ryan (17/24 for 135 yds, 1 TD and 1 INT) and especially Michael Turner (18 carries, 166 yds, 2 TD's) standout. Turners big game really helped the Falcons in this one. That's one up for me. Cardinals 41 @ Bears 21: Despite a big game from Cutler (29/47, 369 yds, 3 TDs and 1 INT) the Cardinals were just too strong. Kurt Warner went 22/32, 261 yds and threw, wait for it, 5 TDs. Cameos from Tim Hightower and 'Beanie' Wells added another 149 yards on the ground. On a more amusing note, Matt Leinart was brought into the game..... and on his first throw produced a pick! 2-0 to me. Ravens 7 @ Bengals 17: As suspected, a tight game. Both teams did well through the air, but ultimately Ray Rice got just 12 carries for less than 50 yds while Cedric Benson put 117 yds up on 34 carries. 2-1. Texans 17 @ Colts 20: This went down to the wire, with the Texans missing a potentially game tieing field goal as time expired. Both QB's produced a little over 300 yds. 3-1. Chiefs 21 @ Jaguars 24: At first it looked like the Jags would cruise away with this one. Damn the Chiefs for rallying and making it a tight one. 4-1. Dolphins 17 @ Patriots 27: Not the blow out I was expecting. Credit to the 'Fins for fighting back. I should have known that they would save their new wrinkles in the 'Wildcat' specifically for the Patriots. Funny, great for the rivalry, but their recent results would suggest it to be a pretty stupid move. Brady threw for 332 yds and a TD to bury a Dolphins team that generated just one touchdown on a trick play. 5-1 Packers 28 @ Buccaneers 38: Assclowns. Trust the Packers to be the first team to fall to the Bucs'. Once again, Green Bay gave up 6 sacks. Now trust me Packers fans and team members, that's not good. As a 49'ers fan I can confidently report that your team will not win games doing that. Add to that a blocked punt and you know the Packers have serious issues. They need to find a) a run game and b) a quick passing game. And they need to find them 3 weeks ago. 5-2. Cheers Packers. So those are the only confirmed results so far, but there are currently 4 games underway which we'll have a quick look at: Panthers came out shooting against the Saints with a 66-yd TD run. What was I saying yesterday about explosive running plays, especially from the Panthers? After just 11 carries DeAngelo Williams already has 100-yds and 2 TD's. I hate to say it but... I told you so. With 3 mins left in the first half, Panthers lead 17-3. I would normally get excited by this, but the last time I did that was when the Dolphins played the Saints, and we all know what happened there. Fingers crossed for 6-2. Lions are beating the Seahawks 17-7. I'm hopeful that in the second half the 'hawks will rectify that. Looking like 6-3 at the minute. Chargers and Giants currently 7 a piece. I'm worried though. The Giants are throwing the ball. Jacobs and Bradshaw have just 12 carries between them. Might take me to 6-4. Titans and 49'ers are tied 10 each at the minute. Both QB's have just over 100-yds, but crucially Gore has 35-yds off 6 carries, Johnson has just 17-yds of 8 carries. If the 49'ers keep this up, victory could be theirs. and that would take me to (potentially) 7-4.

Running off my mouth.

Ok so today I'm gonna look at running the football, and why there's a chance it might become en vogue once more. First of all I'd like to clarify that I'm not talking about Miami's 'Wildcat'. The reason is simple. Without a true QB in there they lack any immediate passing threat. Their passing game basically consists of long, drawn out plays involving plenty of play action. And teams are learning quickly that if you can force the edges with your cornerbacks and play two deep safeties, you can shut the Wildcats pass attack down. No, what I'm talking about is true power running. "I" formations and the like, with a fullback in the backfield leading the way. Pulling guards and pounding the rock. Every team in the NFL seems to have packages for this (accept maybe New England and Indianapolis). But few teams do it often and do it properly. Two teams that stand out are the Tennessee Titans and the Carolina Panthers. Last season these two teams went 13-3 and 12-4 respectively for a combined tally of 25-7. They both bombed in the playoffs. And that's actually a point worth noting. During the regular season they both ran the ball. A lot. They leaned on their respective two headed rushing attacks to get the job done for them. Then in the playoffs both teams made a cardinal error. They tried to pass to win. Both teams asked their QB to win it for them and both failed. Miserably. Scary thing is, it's been a running theme again for them this season (no pun intended). Neither team looked at it's mistakes. Neither team has sat down and thought to themselves "Hey, we did great running the ball last year, why are we throwing it this year?". As a consequence, they now have a combined record of 4-10 having played 14 games between them. They've also managed to generate 21 INT's between their starting QB's. The moral of the story? Play to your strengths, and in both cases, that's power running. So what is it about running the football that's so great? Firstly, you don't turn the ball over anywhere near as much. I know some teams (or rather their running backs) have problems with ball retention, but as I mentioned yesterday, a lot of that is down to poor technique. It's easily fixable. To get a look at how it's done properly, turn to Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald and look at his ball control technique. Anytime he feels pressure he wraps that ball up tight. The result is that in 83 games, with a combined tally of 489 touches, he's fumbled the ball just 5 times. Kerry Collins or Jake Delhomme have produced more turnovers individually in just one season. Now consider the question of clock and ball control. You run the football, you get tackled, the clock keeps running. This means that gradually throughout the course of the game you leave less and less time available for a high scoring pass offense like the Patriots or the Saints to put points up on the board against you. They can't score 35 or 40 points because they don't have the time or the sufficient number of possessions to do it. And then we look at 3 and outs. The beauty of running the ball is that even if you're run play gets stuffed close to the line of scrimmage, chances are you can at least get a yard or two. Conversely every incompletion on a pass play gets you nothing, zero, zlich. And that's before we even get started on the number of runs that are stopped for big losses versus yards lost through sacks. Ultimately what it adds up to is more manageable down and distance situations (3rd & 2 as opposed to 3rd & 8). "But what about big plays? What happens when your team gets behind and you need to score?" I hate this supposed argument. So far this season the leagues running backs have combined for 30 runs of 40 or more yards. If it wasn't for Tennessee and Carolina (amongst others) being so pre-occupied with their QB's, the tally would be even more. It just boils my blood to listen to the notion that running the football can't produce explosive plays. Because it does. And if teams ran the ball more against the fabled 'prevent' defenses, that are designed to stop the pass by removing linebackers and introducing more defensive backs, then I'm sure you'd see more big plays. If you want a good example, just go back to the last game ever played in Texas stadium, which was last years Week 16 clash between the Cowboys and the Ravens. The Cowboys gave up rushing touchdowns of 77 and 82 yards on back to back Ravens possessions. And of course, running the football attracts 8 man boxes. It attracts safeties looking to stuff the run. Which creates opportunities for play action passes going deep down the field. Just ask the Saints. The difference maker in their season so far has been points scored on defense and the fact that this year they actually run the football. In fact, they've almost chalked up as many rushing touchdowns as they have passing (14 rushing to 16 passing). And if you still don't believe me, ask Brett Favre and Carson Palmer. With Peterson of the Vikings and Benson of the Bengals producing so well on the ground, both Favre and Palmer have seen a lot more 8 man boxes and cover three looks. And for them, that's bread and butter. They will, and have, picked such coverage apart all season long. Even Jake Delhomme did last year (!!!), as teams respected the Panthers rushing attack so much (and with good reason) that it created one on one matchups for Steve Smith on the outside. Conversely, teams that don't run the ball as much get into trouble far more often than teams that don't pass as much. Look at the Dolphins blowing their huge lead over the Saints a few weeks ago, or the Jets giving the ball away passing against the Bills despite having dominated on the ground all day. The Eagles lost to the Raiders purely because they couldn't, or wouldn't run the ball. They gave the Raiders ample opportunities to break up passes, get sacks and gave them plenty of clock to play with. And we all know what's happened to the Panthers and Titans this year..... So in summary, if you wanna win football games at this level it's best to have a balanced attack. Run the ball to set up the pass. If you're QB isn't that great run it a little more. If your defense isn't great, run it a little more. If you want to hold onto a lead, run it a little more. Gradually we're starting to see teams with strong run games dominate football games. Last year the Steelers and the Ravens, who both exemplified this theory, contested the AFC championship game. The Steelers went on to win the Superbowl. Look for the trend to continue and for more teams to turn to power football as a way to make it to, and through, the post season.

Week 9 NFL picks

It's that time again, Friday night is pick night. Just to recap, I'm 18-8 now after two weeks of doing this. Let's see if we can't rustle up a clean sweep this week. Here's my picks for week 9 of the NFL: Redskins @ Falcons: A lot can happen in a bye week. You have a chance to sit down, reflect, rest and hopefully comeback stronger. It's just a shame that Washington is so bad. And to make things worse, they've lost TE Chris Cooley. All this spells bad news for a Redskins team travelling to the Georgia Dome to take on a Falcons team that will be relishing the chance to put some points on the board and find their groove again. Look for Tony Gonzalez to have a big game with Roddy White's questionable playing status this week. I'm going Falcons. Cardinals @ Bears: Both teams have been a bit topsy turvy this season. Honestly though, I think the Cardinals have been the better side. Last week Warner handed Carolina the game, but don't expect him to do the Bears any favours this week. And with Jay Cutler throwing plenty of picks himself, expect Cardinals cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and safety Adrian Wilson to have a happy day in Chicago. I'm backing the Cardinals. Ravens @ Bengals: Boy we've got a clash on our hands!! It's been a role reversal of sorts this year with the traditionally run heavy Ravens finding a pass game all of a sudden, and the pass happy Bengals looking to running back Cedric Benson to turn up the heat on teams. If there's one thing for certain, this Sundays game will produce a great matchup. Question is, who wins? This is a tight one. The Bengals have been last minute specialists this year (including beating the Ravens) and a recent slump by the Ravens was violently turned around last week against the previously unbeaten Denver Broncos. It's close, but I think the Ravens have the edge. When the teams last met, Benson broke the Ravens streak of consecutive games without giving up a 100 yard rusher. I can't imagine that sits well with them. I think they'll come out looking to stuff Benson and force Palmer to beat them through the air. And with Ed Reed lurking in that secondary, it's always playing with fire to throw the ball. I think the Bengals get burnt. Give me the Ravens in this one. Texans @ Colts: This match is probably closer now than it's ever been in recent years. Matt Schaub is up there with Peyton Manning as one of the top Quarterbacks in the league right now. Trouble is, he's just lost Tight End Owen Daniels to injury and his number 1 back has been ousted (we think) by Ryan Moats. That represents a weekend of change for the Texans, as they try to pick their way around this setback. Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson will have to take up some of the slack, but that's gonna be hard with Johnson drawing a LOT of double coverage this week. The only relief they have is knowing that Colts Safety 'Bob' Sanders is out for the season through injury. Manning and co have no such worries offensively. They've been taking teams apart all year and after a scare last week against the 49'ers, I think they'll come back strong. I'm taking the Colts in this one. Chiefs @ Jaguars: Crikey, it's gonna be a long day for Kansas fans. I'm sure they've heard every pun there is going about being swept off to Oz, so I'll refrain. They can only hope the Jaguars do as well. Maurice Jones-Drew made a statement last week, even as the Jaguars went down. That statement said "give me the ball, let me win games for you". This week I think Jack Del Rio will be listening. He already mentioned earlier in the week that he was dissatisfied with the play of his QB David Garrard, and felt that the team wasn't running the football enough. This week they have the Chiefs at their mercy. And with the Chiefs main running back Larry Johnson not a factor anymore, it puts all the pressure on the Chiefs passing game to come up big. And I just don't think it will. I'm taking the Jaguars. Dolphins @ Patriots: By all accounts, Joey Porter doesn't like Bill Belichick and the Patriots that much. Well, he's gonna hate them after this week 9 loss. I like the Dolphins, they have some spirit and they've been brave to break the mould and go with the 'Wildcat'. But I don't think they can hang with the Patriots in this one. Moss and Welker will be catching balls left, right and center, and the Dolphins just don't have the weapons to keep up. You can't put the ball on Chad Henne and expect him to bring this one back from the brink. I'm taking the Patriots. Packers @ Buccaneers: Aaron Rodgers is the most sacked QB in the NFL right now. But two things should make you pause. Firstly, nearly half of all those sacks have been registered by the Minnesota Vikings. Secondly, the Packers o-line is only partly to blame. Rodgers does hold onto the ball too long. Both things are easily correctable (at least in the sense that the Packers don't have to play the Vikings again this regular season). What is not so easily corrected is the Buc's. And by that, I mean every phase of their game; offense, defense, special teams. They're a team in fluctuation right now. They're trying to fit all these new parts into the right slots and figure out where they're going. They also seem to be flat out defiant about using their run game, which a) might actually prove quite handy & b) might burn some serious clock and help keep their defense from being pounded so badly in future. Their fans can only dream. I'm backing the boys from Green Bay in this one. Packers win. Panthers @ Saints: This one could well be the reckoning. For the last two weeks (on blogger, and for the whole season in private) I've been pleading with the Panthers to give the ball to Williams and Stewart and let them run wild. Last week I didn't think they would (as usual) and suddenly they surprised me (and cost me a pick. I hate them Panthers). I also have developed a fondness for going against the Saints. First in week 7, I took the Dolphins, who shot into a big early lead then somehow (read: giving the ball to Henne) managed to blow it. Then I took the Falcons last week who ended up one missed pass interference call away from at least taking the Saints to overtime. This week, I'm going to go on a limb again and take the Panthers. Every week they disappoint. Every week they do the exact opposite of what I said they'd do. And every week the Saints seem to live up to their name and produce some sort of divine intervention to save their skins. Well this week is different. After putting on a clinic against the Cardinals last week, the Panthers surely will run that Prolate spheroid (or ball, as it's otherwise known) into the ground and surely the Saints will not escape again. Surely they will mirror the Cardinals of last week and end up throwing picks-a-plenty. Surely? Won't they? This week both John Fox and Drew Brees may conspire to tear me down. I'm taking the Panthers. God help me. Lions @ Seahawks: ..... wins the award for least interesting game this week. Nate Burleson and T. J. Houshmandzadeh should both have good outings against the Lions. I'm backing the Seahawks. Chargers @ Giants: The Giants look bad. Really bad. But you never know. When Brandon Jacobs gets 20 or more carries, the Giants are 11-1 (or so I'm told). And if Jacobs is getting 20 carries that probably means Ahmad Bradshaw is getting his fair share as well. And that means that the Giants are physically dominating the other team. So the question is, which Giants team do we get this week. Physical masters, or passing amateurs? 'Cos if they try and shoot it out with the Chargers then there will be a lot of unhappy people trudging home in New York on Sunday. Philip Rivers and co will let loose and the scoreboard operator will be earning his crust this week. I really like the Chargers in this one. I mean really like the Chargers. I mean like "holy crap, I need to remortgage the house so I can bet on the Chargers to win".......... which is why I'm taking the Giants. I just can't see Tom Coughlin coming into this game and deciding that shoot out is the best option. I think he's gonna look at the Chargers, realise that Tomlinson and Sproles can't run the ball this year, realise that Eli and his young receivers haven't connected properly yet, and then he's gonna smash the rock right up in the Chargers face. Either that or get into a shootout and get blown away. Still I think the Giants might pull this one out of the bag. Give me the Giants. Titans @ 49'ers: At first I was afraid, I was petrified.... then I realised that the Titans can't throw the ball and it was all good. The 49'ers play good run defense under Mike Singletary. No, scrap that, they play great run defense. Last week they almost pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season against the Colts. And they became the first team this season to shut Peyton Manning down for less than 300 yards passing. Expect them to focus on Chris Johnson and the Titans running game, forcing a slightly rusty and unspectacular Vince Young to beat them aerially. And expect him to fail miserably. Meanwhile the Titans banged up secondary is just waiting to be torn into little chunks by Alex Smith and his two favourite toys: Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree. Crabtree could even get his first touchdown as a 49'er this week. And believe it or not, shock of shocks, I'm actually gonna take my coveted red and gold warriors this week. 49'ers win. Cowboys @ Eagles: Tough pick. The Eagles have suddenly let rip of late and are gashing teams for huge yardage. DeSean Jackson is tearing off big receptions and returns like it was run of the mill stuff for him. But it ends against the Cowboys. If McNabb holds the ball too long he's gonna get dumped on by DeMarcus Ware. And that's only if the Eagles can even prise the ball away from the Cowboys, whose three headed rushing attack and sure handed passing attack will doubtless consume some clock. I'm thinking that Miles Austin and Patrick Crayton will have another great weekend, while the Eagles will struggle to run the ball against a half decent run defense. I'm taking the Cowboys. Steelers @ Broncos: Last week the Broncos unbeaten run came to a shuddering halt against the Baltimore Ravens. This week they play a Steelers team that shares a similar mould. Like the Ravens, the Steelers have a varied and aggressive defensive approach. Like the Ravens, the Steelers have a standout safety who they can unleash to terrorize opposing the offense. And like the Ravens, the Steelers can run the football on you. Unlike the Ravens, the Steelers also have a Pro Bowl caliber QB who can mince your secondary at will. With Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward downfield, the Steelers always pose a serious deep threat. Their receiving corps also adds more punch to an already fearsome rushing attack in a way that no other team can match. They have the holy grail of all offenses; perfect balance. And this I'm afraid (for Broncos fans at least) will be too much to handle. I'm taking the Steelers. So, there we have it. Those are my picks for week 9 of the 2009 NFL season. May they all come up trumps. Fingers crossed. And by the way, if you've been following the blog and enjoy it, don't keep it to yourself. Pass the word on to as many people as you can and feel free to comment away.

Fumbling around for answers.

It's not quite picks time yet, but I just had two random observations to bring up that suddenly came to me. 1) Marvin Harrison. Yeah he might be 37 years old now. But the fact is Harrison is far superior to a plethora of wideouts who are currently chewing up roster space on many teams. Why didn't anyone come in for the guy in the offseason? 2) Fumbles. 2009 might just be looked back on as the year of the fumble. Honestly, it's everywhere. Steve Slaton has basically lost the starting job in Houston to rookie Ryan Moats because of his problems holding onto the football. And yet all of this seems so unnecessary. I've been going back and watching a ton of film. And I mean it. Tons of film. And what consistently crops up is examples of ball security that would make little kids blush with embarassment. The old adage is four points of pressure (tip of the ball, forearm, crook of the elbow and bicep). Many would go so far as to make it 5 (pinning the ball against the chest). What you see week in and week out in the NFL is two (fingers on the tip and against the forearm). No wonder the balls getting dumped on the turf every 5 seconds. And the genuine question is, who coaches these guys? If you're a top NFL coach, isn't it your responsibility to fix this problem? I don't wanna sound like your average armchair coach (even though technically speaking, I am) but isn't the 4 (or 5) points of pressure a basic standard of football across all levels? And with turnovers having such a huge impact on games, isn't it something that you think would be addressed everyday in practice, till it became routine? I don't know. I'm no genius. But I sure as hell know I wouldn't pay a coach if he allowed that kind of thing to continue. Rant over. Later tonight I'll stick my neck on the line again and produce some week 9 picks. So far in the two weeks I've been doing this, I'm 18-8. which is just under 70% (like 0.01% under). This week there are some real toughies (like last week, and the week before....) but I'm actually quite confident about going 13-0 this week. But then I was confident the Dolphins would beat the Saints in week 7....

Drawing a Blank

Just to give you a heads up, tomorrow I'll be making my picks for week 9 of the NFL and on Saturday I'll be taking a look at why I think the power running game might soon become the new must have offense. Again. As for today, I've drawn a blank. Honestly. Cant think of a single thing to write about. Well I guess I could. I could write a whole page on why I think the Saints are over rated and predict some of the surprised expressions that people will come out with when they fall apart in late end of the season. I could write about why I think the Patriots are still contenders for the big crown this year, even after some disappointing losses early on. I could write about why the Titans still have an outside shot at the playoffs, even after their abysmal start to the season. I could write about why the NFC East could be possibly the biggest disappointment this year in terms of it's playoff contributions. I could write about why I think the NFC West may just spring to life in the next few years. I could tell you all about why I think the Rams may bizarrely finish the season on a high (by their standards at least). I guess there is a lot to talk about. But I don't want to bore you with the details. Yet.....

We're talking about "Holy crap, that was one hell of a hit... oh wait, he didn't have the ball" type interference

Recently I bashed NFL networks Mike Mayock a little for some analysis that he did. Today I just watched a couple of videos on NFL.com that re-affirmed why, overall, I think he's top notch. Basically it revolves around two plays; Jabari Greers interception against the Falcons, and Leonard Weavers TD run against the Giants. The point he made was that in both cases the play had a big effect on the game, and in both cases, the plays should have been scrubbed by penalties. Now first up let me point out that this is not an argument or attack on the referees. The NFL is, at least in my opinion, one of the leading sports in the world for officiating. We now have several umpires dotted around the field (though I wish they'd remove the official from amongst the linebackers), there are TV replays, booth reviews inside of 2 mins and coaches have the challenge ability as well. Compared to the officiating of many other sports, and in particular I'm levelling my finger at Soccer in Europe, the officiating in the NFL is exceptional. But still, humans are humans, mistakes will be made. And so it was that the Saints got away with pass interference and the Eagles got away with holding. In the Eagles case it was Brent Celek who got a reasonably blatant hold of, I believe, Justin Tuck. This prevented Tuck making a tackle that would have stuffed the play for no gain. That's how much of a swing we're talking about. No gain compared to a touchdown. And that has an affect on teams. It has an affect on defenses and coaches. It affects the outcome of the game. And it's why I'm still a little apprehensive about the Eagles rushing attack. The next is gonna seem like pure bullying. I pick on the Saints every week it seems. But hey, if you wanna be the best 1) expect everyone to be taking shots at you and 2) expect to have to prove it on a regular basis. And what Mike Mayock proved was that Greer's interception was the result of nothing shorter than blatant pass interference. Not by Greer (I forget who it was). But it was blatant. Honestly, we're not talking about "now, does that level of contact constitute interference" type interference. We're talking about "Holy crap, that was one hell of a hit... oh wait, he didn't have the ball" type interference. And without it and the resulting pick 6 it created, we finish with a tie game. So what is this all in aid of? Nothing more really than a rant. Just to point out that the Saints aren't all they're being made out to be and the Eagles rushing attack may well collapse this week. Oh and yeah, there was some love on NFL Total Access for Darren Sharper. And yeah, it included the jump ball interception. And no, no-one gave Tracy Porter, Greer or Randall Gay the credit they deserve. It's all about the numbers. Which is why NFL scouts end up picking some real duds. (*cough* JaMarcus Russell *cough*)

Trawling the net for Football gems.

So today I've been browsing around the web etc and checking out what's generally going on in the football world and so here I present to you some of my humble observations: 1) I read an article about Quarterbacking, which to cut a long story short, bemoaned the lack of quality teaching today regarding a QB's arm position during the throw. The writer included a piece by a well known QB coach (who advertises on his site. Just thought I'd mention that). In the way that seems all to typical of college coaches now (which both the writer and his sponsor, sorry, contributor are), he levelled the lofty finger of criticism at the pros. It was the usual, "they don't really understand football, not like we do in Division 3...." type of thing. The most severe critique was saved for the way pro coaches obsess over footwork. And to be honest, the pro coaches have this one in the bag. Stand in the middle of a field, feet shoulder with apart and facing forward, and throw a ball to a friend using nothing more than your arm motion. Good luck with that by the way. It probably didn't travel very far. Now introduce the hips. And now finally the legs and feet, allowing yourself to coil back and throw. The power in the proverbial "Big arm" comes from using the whole body as a sling. Generating power begins in the legs and the hips. To do this properly, to allow yourself to follow through completely, you must first plant your feet properly. Hence the seemingly inordinate amount of time that top QB coaches devote to footwork. 2) Talking of QB's, Brett Favre comes to mind. The stats are good. He's completing about 68% of his passes (174/256), for 1,925 yds total and an average of 7.5 yds per completion. But what really sticks out is the business end of the numbers. 16 TD's, matched only by Matt Schaub and Drew Brees. But what he has that they don't is just 3 INT's, (compared to 6 & 7 for Brees and Schaub respectively). This is what is marking him out for possibly his greatest season yet. The old gunslinger from the south has tempered his game a little, reducing turnovers to help a team that features a fantastic RB and a great D. All the while, still finding time to put points on the board. Watching him in action, he really does look superb this season. If he and the Vikings were to win the Superbowl this year, it would be thoroughly, thoroughly, deserved. 3) Lot of talk around about firing head coaches. Eric Mangini should top that list. The Redskins, the Rams, the Lions, the Titans and the Raiders have all hardly set the world alight this year, but at least they've tried. At least they've gone about their business with a bit of guts in some places. Meanwhile the Browns trot out week on week and seem to dissolve in front of our very eyes each week. Complaints among the players about their coach are rife. God knows how he acquired the title 'Man-genius', but I wish people would stop giving him that much credit. The argument currently in vogue is that firing Mangini now would serve no purpose, and that the Browns would not really progress at all as a club. Well hey, newsflash, this season the Browns have, somehow, regressed since last season. Mangini has made this team worse. A new coach may not fix all the problems now, but at least you'd be solving the franchises biggest problem, i.e. Mangini. 4) The consensus opinion among the great and the good of football analysis and commentary seems to be that the New Orleans Saints are the best team in football right now. And it's simply not true. There seems to be no other evidence for this decision that's been made than the fact that they're 7-0. Which on the surface seems fantastic. Except that the Colts are also 7-0, and they're a much better team. And lets not forget about the Denver Broncos, who at 6-0 were being touted as the previous best team in the NFL, the team that everyone now had to beat etc... until the Ravens torched them 30-7. Remember the Saints vs Dolphins a couple of weeks ago? You should, because were it not for some shocking play calling the Dolphins would have utterly embarrassed the "best team in the NFL right now". Then this week, they scrape past the Falcons. Yes people, the Falcons. Looking at some of the quality sides in the NFL who year on year produce great results, it's hard to get to excited about the Saints just yet. 5) In an interesting addition to the above, I thought it was quite amusing to see Darren Sharper lauded for his pick in last weeks game. This is the kind of thing I'm talking about with misplaced praise. It was a jump ball. There were at least 5 or 6 Saints just clamouring for a piece of that ball. Sharper was the one under it. Suddenly that's the mark of a great player, with the so often quoted phrase "ball hawk" being rolled out. If catching a last second desperation jump ball on the 20 yard line makes you great, then there's still hope for many a rubbish defensive player in the league. And all the while no-one is talking about the Saints combo of cornerbacks, Jabari Greer, Randall Gay and most importantly, Tracy Porter. 6) The praise so far for Vince Young has been overflowing from pretty much every orifice that the Internet has to offer. People saying how well he controlled the game, made no mistakes and just did enough to help the Titans win. Well I hate to point this out, but that's exactly what Kerry Collins did last year, except Collins is going to be a ton cheaper next year. Being a game manager is pretty easy for most quarterbacks, especially ones in Tennessee right now. Hand the ball off and let Johnson and White do all the damage. All you have to do is limit (read: eliminate) turnovers. Young can do that. Collins can do that. Hell, I could probably do that. What the Titans need to see from Young is this; if we get ourselves in a situation where we cant run the ball, can you lead us to victory? Flacco is starting to do it in Baltimore. Roethlisberger did it for Pittsburgh last year. That's the question that needs to be answered of Vince Young. Not, "if we play our normal style of running football, can we trust you to hand the ball off correctly?". 7) Everyone is crying about the recent slump of Giants Quarterback Eli Manning. Now, this deserves a reality check. No, that's not quite sufficient. It deserves a hard slap in the face. Eli is not his brother. He's not Philip Rivers, he's not Tom Brady, he's not Drew Brees, he's none of these people. What he is, is the brother of one of the best quarterbacks in the league, who happened to be the guy that was asked in Superbowl 42, to chuck what was for all intended purposes a 'hail mary' pass into the endzone, which was caught for a game winning touchdown. No more, no less. He's an average QB. He's ok, he's better than Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson. He's better than JaMarcus Russell. But he's still not good enough to take the game out of the hands of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, who would probably very much appreciate the ball not being constantly turned over at the QB position. That's just the facts. Manning is good. But he's no Manning. 8) The Packers defence is drawing a lot of heat lately, with a lot of talk about whether one of the defensive ends should line up on the LOS or 1 yard off it. Yes people, it's the old 4-3/3-4, let's-all-pretend-it-makes-a-huge-amount-of-difference debate once more this season. I'm always told in the greatest of confidence and without any hint of shame by people that it's to do with getting the right personnel in the right spot. Because of course, if you had a 330-pound nose tackle, you wouldn't dare put him in a 4-3 defence. God no!! Only a 3-4, etc, etc, the arguments go on. What the Packers might want to do is focus a bit more on their appalling O-line and their abysmal rushing attack. 9) Maurice Jones-Drew. So the story goes, he chose 32 as his Jersey number to remind him (and doubtless the world) that 32 teams passed on him first time around. It is widely believed that most teams considered him too small to succeed (approximately 5ft 7in). Only in the NFL could a short player like Jones-Drew be considered unsuitable for a position that requires a quick burst of speed, the ability to change directions rapidly and the ability to get your pads low on a tackler. That is all.

It's time to dish out some extra credit.

Falcons@ Saints (27-35): Well, I made a mistake. I took the Falcons. It seems going against the Saints is a bad idea lately. But not for long I think. Last week I took the Dolphins to beat them, and if it wasn't for a poor timeout decision right before halftime and then some bizarre playcalling decisions in the second half, they would have. This week 7 points separated the Falcons from a tie game. And so if Ryan hadn't thrown that pick six, it might have been a very different result. Yes the Saints won, but don't count on them to keep this up all season. The last few games they've come up quite lucky against teams that you wouldn't exactly call stellar. Expect a loss soon. So thanks to Brees and co. I'm now 8-5 this week. Bad, but still a winner overall. Time I think to dish out some extra credit: -- Ryan Moats (Broncos): For snapping up the chance to step into Houstons backfield. Went for 126 yds of 23 carries, with 3 TD's to boot. Nice work. -- Jairus Byrd (Bills): Another 2 interceptions this week for the Bills safety. Keeps playing well and making plays despite the abysmal lack of talent around him. I've always believed that shining on a good team is easy, shining on a bad one takes real talent. -- The Fans (Browns): For travelling to Chicago and paying to watch their awful team go about it's business. I don't know how they do it, but they do, and for that they are probably the most deserving of this weeks extra credit. -- Brett Ratliff (Browns): For not speaking out in the press against his coaches for not playing him. He may not have even started a game yet in the NFL, but he sure as hell can't be worse than Anderson or Quinn. -- Sam Hurd (Cowboys): While Miles Austin has established himself as the number 1 receiver and reaps all the credit, Hurd is quietly going about his business as the number three receiver. Only had one catch in the game against Seattle, but he took it 36 yds for a TD. -- Patrick Crayton (Cowboys): Doesn't seem to feature much in the pass game anymore, but credit to him for giving his special teams role the maximum effort and coming up with another special teams TD this week. -- Ted Ginn Jr. (Dolphins): 2 kickoff returns for TD's; one of 100 yds, the other of 101 yds. The guy has some class moves and is pretty tough for a wideout. Made a huge impact in his teams win against the Jets. -- The Defence (49'ers): Didn't give up a rushing touchdown and only conceded an aerial one when the Colts ran a trick play with Addai throwing to Reggie Wayne. That's a tough task against any team, let alone the Colts. More power to them. -- Donovan McNabb (Eagles): After two weeks of mediocrity, he hit back with 17/23 for 240 yds and 3 TD's versus the Giants. That's the kind of form the Eagles need from him every week if they're going to make it in the postseason this year. -- DeSean Jackson (Eagles): Only had three catches, but managed to squeeze 78 yds and a TD out of them. -- LeSean McCoy (Eagles): 11 carries is usually nothing for a RB, the kind of work you give to a second string complimentary back. McCoy used his to go 82 yds and notch up a TD. Look for the Eagles to snap up any rookie in next years draft with the word 'Sean' in his first name. -- Leonard Weaver (Eagles): Fullbacks seem to be a dying breed in the NFL of late. Shame. But Weaver doesn't care, that's why he went for 75 yds and a TD on his 8 carries. -- Chris Johnson (Titans): 24 carries, 228 yds and 2 TD's. That's a mean afternoons work and the Titans are gonna need more of that if they want to put some more numbers in the win coloumn. -- Maurice Jones-Drew (Jaguars): How can you not sympathise with the guy? He takes just 8 carries and turns them into 177 yds and 2 TD's. Not only does this not win his team the game, but he gets outshone in the running stakes by Chris Johnson! Don't worry though Maurice, I'm more impressed with your tally simple because of the lower number of carries. Must be hard to be this good and still have to watch your team throw the ball 27 times, completeing just 14 and throwing two picks. This man is the future of the franchise. -- David Garrad (Jaguars): Based on my comments above you'll probably find this strange. But the fact is on one of Jones-Drew's runs he managed to sprint down the field, overtake his RB and then block a guy backwards into the endzone to finish the score. That's determination and effort that will sit well with his team mates. If only more players were this driven. -- Brett Favre (Vikings): No one in the league is playing on Favres level right now. The fact he's 40 makes this all the more amazing. Completed 17/28 passes, for 244 yds and 4 TD's, no INT's. In a bizarre twist this season, Favre is the guy taking centre stage, with Peterson as his back up. And I can only think of one word to describe him right now; legendary. -- Aaron Rodgers (Packers): Went 26/41 passing, for 287 yds and 3 TD's with no INT's. In addition he led his team in rushing with 5 carries for 52 yds. Tries as hard as anyone in the league but can do it all alone. He needs some more work from his offensive line and in the draft the Packers need to go and get a great RB to take some of the load. -- Jared Allen (Vikings): 5 tackles, 3 sacks. Allen is a beast that is feeding off opposition QB's (mainly Rodgers). With Linebacker Chad Greenway and Cornerback Antoine Winfield (when he returns) this defensive unit is looking mean. Dare I say it, Superbowl mean? We'll see. -- DeAngelo Williams (Panthers): After a no doubt frustrating wait, Williams finally gets a game where he gets 23 carries, and he duly converted them into 158 yds. No touchdowns, but then that is what Jonathan Stewart is for. -- Jonathan Stewart (Panthers): Must have been amazed to have been given the ball 17 times. He only managed 87 yds (only?!) but also picked up 2 TD's to help the Panthers overcome a usually stout Cardinals D. Must have something to do with Warners 5 INT's.

Week 8 picks so far

Ok so now that all of Sundays action has finished, it's time to check the last of my picks (excluding tomorrows game obviously): Raiders @ Chargers (16-24): No real surprises here. The Raiders are bad, but the Chargers didn't exactly blow them off the field in a flurry of touchdowns. The Chargers do seem to have a habit lately of grinding results out. Jaguars @ Titans (13-30): Titans pick up there first win of the season and all you can say is wow! Not because they won, but because of Chris Johnson. 24 carries, 228 yds and 2 TD's suggests a hard days work at the office. Nice. And given the amount of additional rushing attempts by LenDale White and Vince Young, it means the Titans have suddenly realised that they're a rushing team again. Credit where it's due, Young threw 15/18 for 125 yds and a TD to help his team along. That's what the Titans need from the QB position, not a Peyton Manning equivalent. Gotta feel sorry for Maurice Jones Drew though, as on any other day you would expect 177 yds and 2 TD's off 8 (yes, eight) carries to be a match winning, highlight reel stealing performance. And 'cos I picked the Jags. Vikings @ Packers (38-26): 17/28, 244 yds, 4 TD's. I told you people, Favre-ageddon was on the cards. Truly though, Favre is playing exceptional football. Not just as good as Manning but better. This is honestly some of the best play I have ever seen from a QB. And with a talented group of receivers around him, a great Running Back behind him, and a great D on the opposite side of the ball, expect Favre to become the oldest QB ever to win a playoff game (currently Phil Simms; 39 years). Packers fans shouldn't be too disappointed though. They have a great upcoming QB, some of the best WRs in the NFL and probably the best pair of Cornerbacks anywhere. They'll achieve greatness again, one day. But for now, the Vikings boost my record this weekend. Panthers @ Cardinals (34-21): I officially dislike the Panthers. Maybe so far as to say hate. Jonathan Stewart; 17 carries, 87 yds, 2 TD's. DeAngelo Williams; 23 carries, 158 yds. Delhomme? 7/14, 90 yds and a TD. My prayers for the Panthers have been answered. About a week late. Just when I think the Cardinals are on to a winner again, the Panthers finally realise that the franchise does not revolve around Delhomme, and predictably they get back to winning ways. Biggest surprise though is Kurt Warner throwing 5 picks. Normally that's Delhommes job. Maybe it's a cursed jockstrap that Delhomme somehow secreted into his oppsing numbers locker? So, 8-4 this week. Even if the Falcons pull out the victory tomorrow over the Saints, that still leaves me just 9-4, 1 short of last weeks tally (10-3). At some point, once I've gotten over my Panthers malaise, I shall dish out the extra credit for the week. There's plenty to go around. Just one interesting point to leave you with. Rushing stats this week are up a huge amount. This follows a general trend around the league right now, made all the more hilarious since NFL.com and various other sites etc have gone into a "this is a quarterbacks league now" funk of late. If anything it's the opposite. Long live the running back!!

I hate the Panthers. Hate 'em.

With the early games finished, now is as good a time as any to catch up on some results and see how my picks for the week are doing, starting in Baltimore: Broncos @ Ravens (7-30): This pick was all the more satisfying due to the fact that everyone and his brother (and his uncle) seemed to be touting Denver as one of the leagues elite teams. You're not elite until you consistently (and by that I mean season on season) win lots of games and batter lowly opposition. The Ravens are one of the leagues elite teams. And today they proved it. Orton failed to throw a TD and the Broncos rushing attack was basically stuffed dead. Meanwhile Flacco and Rice kept the Ravens on course, plus a Lardarius Webb kick return for good measure. Texans @ Bills (31-10): There was a point in the first half that I was worried about this pick. No real need to fret. The Bills are the Bills, and that means at some point they were going to fold like a soggy pack of cards. The question is, who is Ryan Moats? I have no idea. But he bagged 126 yds and 3 TD's off 23 carries for the Texans against a typically abysmal Bills rush D. Browns @ Bears (6-30): Derek Anderson. 6 of 17 passing. That's really it. That's all that I need to say. Seahawks @ Cowboys (17-38): To be fair, the tale of the stats is pretty even. Ish. Romo got an extra TD and Barber ran one in, but other that not a huge lot to separate them. Dolphins @ Jets (30-25): Stats wise, this should have been all Jets. Sanchez doubled Henne's pass yardage and also his TD's. The Dolphins rush was... non existent. Enter stage left; Ted Ginn Jr. With 2 kick returns for TD's, totalling 201 yds between them. I have to admit, I got the pick right, but maybe not for the right reasons. Ah who cares, I picked it. 49'ers @ Colts (14-18): Ok, so yeah the Colts won. But man was this close, much closer than I thought it would be. It seems Alex Smith has found a so far solid connection with his TE Vernon Davis. But what jumps out more is the stats of Peyton Manning; 31/48, 347 yds, 0 TD. How do you get so many yards and no touchdown? Peyton Manning never ceases to amaze. 6-0 so far. Not bad. Giants @ Eagles (17-40): Damn Giants. On Friday I called this game the 'Battle of the Untrustworthy'. Go figure. A few weeks ago the Eagles couldn't, and hardly even attempted to, run the ball on the Raiders. The Raiders. Last week their offense sputtered and choked and finally overcame the Redskins. Then this week it went nuts and tore the Giants a proverbial new one. What happened? LeSean McCoy & Leonard Weaver, that's what. They combined for just 19 carries, but racked up 157 yds and 2 TD's. I'd take that kind of tandem over a single 'superback' any day of the week. Oh yeah, and I guess Donovan McNabb helped by going 17/23 for 240 yds and 3 TD's. That is more like what we've come to expect from the Eagles. Rams @ Lions (17-10): Do I have to mention this game? I do? God almighty. Well as you might expect, both teams lit up the scoreboard like.... a fundamentalist energy savers conference. Calvin Johnson didn't play, so predictably the Rams won. Steven Jackson even managed to rustle up a TD. And so those two downers leave me at 6-2 for the week. That leaves four remaining this evening and another on Monday night as the Falcons head down to New Orleans. Just peeking at the latest in the late games (??), it looks like my picks might be in trouble. Especially the Panthers @ Cardinals game. Wouldn't you just bloody credit it. As soon as I abandon Carolina for lack of use of their run game, they give the ball to Williams and in 5 carries he racks up 98 yds, while Stewart provides the punch, getting 2 TD's and 26 yds of his 5 carries. I hate the Panthers. Hate 'em.