Some Thoughts From Week 5

I'll be back later after MNF to round up the weekends action, but for now just some thoughts; -- First of all a common complaint that I have with the NFL; why the constant sh***y tackling? Aren't NFL Players supposed to be the elite of the elite? Aren't their coaches supposed to be the same? So why do so many players seem incapable of making a decent tackle? How is that guys like Troy Polamalu, LaRon Landry and Ray Lewis come out week after week and make great tackles while some players just whiff every time? -- What was up with all the D-linemen raking in picks this week? I'll get into this more during the round up but it was a field day on Sunday for D-line picks. -- What in the name of god were the Bengals doing in the last 4 minutes of their game against the Bucs'? It's kind of widely excepted in the coaching world that the 4-minute drill is very, very important, so how can the Bengals suck at it so badly? -- Given the fact that it's 2010 and we've seen god-only-knows how many defensive pass interference calls in the last 20 years, why are defensive backs still not turning to look for the ball? If you don't and you make contact with the receiver, it's almost a given that a flag will be thrown. So turn around DB's!! -- Last week the Dolphins dumped their special teams coordinator. This week I think the Chargers might be considering dumping theirs. There's been a recent run of poor special teams play and much of it comes down to protection. Just to clarify in case anyone is wondering, if you have 3 protectors to the left side of the Long Snapper then they're responsible for picking up the three inside threats to that side. Not the inside guy and then the two outermost guys. You protect from the inside out; always. Again, this is fundamental, basic football. I'm not a genius and never was as a coach. But at least I had the basics down. -- Could someone please ring the the 49ers and the Cowboys and ask them why it is they choose to blow games in such spectacular fashion. The sad fact is that both teams are pretty good on paper. Unfortunately when it comes to the crunch time they have a nasty habit of beating themselves up. -- And lastly, as a 49ers fan, I'd like to enquire as to how the 49ers O-line can be as bad as it is. Because it truly is horrific to watch. It's like car crash TV but without the morbid curiosity. Just three hours of frustration. No wonder there is such a swelling of anti-run hatred in the world today. O-line play like this from a supposedly "power running" football team just gives proper running teams a bad rap. Have a great day everyone.

Week 5 picks (part 2)

Time now to finish off my picks for the week, starting with:

Saints @ Cardinals >>> Hahaha, really? I'm afraid so. The Cardinals are taking the meaning of the word failure to a completely new and epic level. The loss of guys like Kurt Warner and Karlos Dansby has seemingly ripped this teams soul out. Now, while I still think the Saints are coming to grips with the reality that -- all things considered -- they probably shouldn't have been in the Super Bowl last year, I'm still going to take them like a shot in this game, purely because of how bad the Cardinals are. Saints win.

Titans @ Cowboys >>> If the Cardinals need advice on avoiding failure, they probably shouldn't speak to Titans Line Coach Mike Munchak. The Titans O-line has crumbled this year, although in fairness that is not all down to Munchak. The loss of Center Kevin Mawae has been a huge blow. I said during free agency that despite his age, I'd take Mawae on as my center given his strength and experience. It looks like the Titans should have been listening. Given the match up of the Titans O-line versus guys like DeMarcus Ware and defensive tackle Jay Ratliff, I just can't take them. Cowboys win.

Chargers @ Raiders >>> How the Chargers are in the situation that they find themselves is beyond me. Other than some crappy special teams play, they've been great, especially on offense. As much as I love the Raiders I have to think that they crumble in this one beneath the might of what is probably still the legitimate powerhouse of the AFC West. Keep an eye out for the Chargers running back combo of rookie Ryan Matthews (watch list) and Fullback Mike Tolbert. Chargers win.

Eagles @ 49ers >>> Really, really unsure about this. The reality is that the 49ers are 0-4 and playing like an 0-4 team. The Eagles are..... well we don't know. We haven't seen enough of them with Kevin Kolb at the helm to be able to make a confident decision. The other side of the coin doesn't help either. We know that the Eagles D sucks, but then so does San Francisco's offense? I could probably toss a coin right now and legitimately have just as much of a chance of picking correctly as I would doing it on intuition. And my intuition says Eagles. Eagles win.

Vikings @ Jets >>> Lord Favre arrives in New York for a stand off against arguably the most confident (and with some cause) team in NFL history. The Jets have been very good so far this season and I just can't see any reason why that might come to and end against Minnesota. Even if the Jets pass rush can't put Favre off his throws, they can beat the guy up. Favre is slowly falling apart as his body finally gives up the playing-ghost, so their is a potential for the Jets to finish the job this Sunday. Jets win.

Right, all my picks are in. Now it's just time to sit back and let the fireworks begin!

Have a great day everyone.

Week 5 picks (part 1)

It's that time of the week again. Picks. I'm currently a terrible 29-33 and with another rough looking week on the horizon. We'll start today with the 1:00 pm kick offs: Jaguars @ Bills >>> I hate picks like this. The difficulty from my perspective is that both teams are so unreliable. The Jaguars with a good David Garrard at QB and Maurice Jones-Drew getting sufficient carries can be very, very good, as evidenced by their surprise victory over the Colts last week. However when Garrard plays badly and Jones-Drew gets limited carries, the Jaguars can implode in spectacular fashion. Coupled with this uncertainty is the question as to how many carries C.J. Spiller will get now that Marshawn Lynch is gone. I'm going to have to take the Jaguars, but I'm not confident in this one. Jaguars win. Broncos @ Ravens >>> The temptation of course is to point at the Ravens and say "easy win". This would be as a result of their tough defense. It sure as hell isn't because of their offense. But I have to temper this with the knowledge that they have so far beaten a terrible week one Jets, were beaten by a so-so Bengals, then beat the Browns (says it all) and a Steelers team that has struggled to find an offense. The Broncos on the other hand are sporting one of the most prolific pass offenses in the league. And if anyone can expose the Ravens secondary it's the Broncos. I'm prepared to take the hit on this one and side with the Broncos. Broncos win. Chiefs @ Colts >>> The leagues sole unbeaten team will be playing at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday. If this was any other year in recent memory then that team would have been the Colts. But it's not. It's the Chiefs. Now, I do like the Chiefs. Really I do. Without checking my rookie watch list to make sure, I'm fairly confident that they have the most representatives. But I just don't know. I've found that picking against the Colts has been costly. But then, picking for them has been costly too. In fact, come to think of it I haven't picked a Colts game correctly all season. My gut says Colts on this one. Colts win. Packers @ Redskins >>> Can we all please stop hyping the Redskins? The Redskins are a terrible team who have been unusually fortunate this year compared to last. Donovan McNabb has somehow done the impossible and actually made the Redskins offense worse this year. Packers win. Rams @ Lions >>> I agree with most that the Lions are very unlucky to be 0-4. The Rams have been no slouches themselves, especially on defense. What I'm trying to decide in my head is this; the Rams have so far played the Cardinals, Raiders, Redskins and Seahawks, but are the Lions better or worse than those teams? That is four really bad offenses. But they all probably have better Defenses than the Lions too. Choices, choices. I think I'm going with Detroit to pick up their first win. Lions win. Bears @ Panthers >>> See why I hate this week? So many match ups that are balanced very finely. The Bears will be starting with Todd Collins this week and have an O-line that gave up 9-10 sacks (can't remember which) last week. The Panthers meanwhile have proven to be rubbish on offense this year. A special teams return for Devin Hester could be enough to swing the game in Chicagos favour. On balance though, I'm backing the Panthers. Panthers win. Buccaneers @ Bengals >>> The Bucs' have been great. They really have. But against the Bengals? I know Cincinnati has taken a lot of flak lately, but they really aren't as bad as people are making out. I suspect it has a lot to do with the presence of Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens, in the sense that if the organised press can cause enough of a stir, maybe one of them will be drawn into saying something that the press can then wind out into a story that will last the rest of the season. Anyway, back on track. Bengals win. Falcons @ Browns >>> Respect to the Browns for beating the Bengals. Respect to the Falcons for nearly getting beaten by the 49ers. Who wins this one though? Tough, but I think the Falcons are in the better shape. The Browns have been heavily reliant on their rushing attack, channelled through FB Peyton Hillis. The Falcons have a great D-line and some superb linebackers like Curtis Lofton. The Browns on defense are..... well they're the Browns. Which means they're pretty vulnerable to the duel threat of Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. Falcons win. Giants @ Texans >>> I've given up trying to second guess the Texans. I hate them. The Giants meanwhile struggled on Sunday Night against a Bears team that looked like it would have been out matched by a Pop Warner team. I'm going to have to take the Texans. It's a no contest really. Texans win. And just like that, all the early kick offs are done. Really not happy with many of the games but then, that's football. Or rather, that's predicting football. Maybe I should complain to Roger Goodell and see if he can fix it so all games end in draws and then nobody gets their feelings hurt etc. On second thoughts, just by typing that I'm tempting fate..... Have a great day everyone.

Gathering Moss

Two things for today: -- Numero uno, the trade of Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings. This is classic Belichick. Despite being a member of the Bill Parcells coaching tree we also know that Belichick was a big fan of Bill Walsh and holds his book "Finding the Winning Edge" in high esteem. One of the points that always comes up when you do enough research on Walsh is the idea that's it better to replace a player a year too early than a year too late, predominantly because of the value that can still be obtained from letting a player go too early. Moss is a case in point. His contract is expiring. To release him into free agency is a waste. To retain him would cost money. Lots of it. By trading Moss now the Patriots have lost a great player for 2010 but gained an additional pick in the third round for 2011. And let's not forget how good Belichick can be at finding good, multi-year contributors in the middle rounds. Any argument that the Patriots have "given up" on their season (as suggested numerous times now on NFL network) is ludicrous. Young receiver Brandon Tate has great speed down the field, Julian Edelman is vastly under rated by many, they still have Wes Welker, and the combo of rookie tight ends Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez (both on my watch list) add a new level of depth to this offense. The Patriots will be fine if they can just sort out that defense. For the Vikings the trade makes some sense to. With Favre in it for probably his last year (but then, this is Favre...) the Vikings are all about winning now and if they plan on doing that, they need Moss to give them a consistent down field threat. The window is here for Minnesota. With the rest of the NFC in the state it's in currently, there is a very good chance that the runner up in the NFC North will finish with a good enough record to take one of the wild card slots. -- Next up I want to look at a segment from NFL networks "Playbook" show. The segment was posted on NFL.com but sadly the NFL seems intent on not allowing people to embed their videos, despite the fact that said videos often contain ads which they generate revenue from and of course it's free exposure for them. Bitching aside, here is the link to the video. The purpose of the clip is to demonstrate the athleticism and talent of Ravens NT Haloti Ngata, which it does. But what is more interesting to me is that the playbook crew overlooks some of the weaknesses of the Steelers O-line play that contributes. I've often found this a hard balancing act to play with; do you highlight the flaws in a play and put it all down to that, or do you highlight the strength of the person making the play? In this case I think it's a bit of both. The first part of the clip comes at about 1:12 or so and it's a zone/stretch run play to the left (from the Steelers perspective). Mayock points out Ngata (number 92) for our convenience. But although Ngata does make a great drive off the line to beat the Guard (to his left) and get into the backfield, the reality is that the play is made because the Center Maurkice Pouncey (starting over Ngata, or vice versa depending on your preference) fails to make the block. Instead of turning back on Ngata and working the double team on Ngata with the guard before "slipping" off to take LB Ray Lewis (number 52), the Center instead works all the way down the line and ends up effectively making a partial triple team on the next down linemen. This is either a result of poor play design, or more likely just Pouncey making a bad adjustment to the defensive front. Credit to Ngata for his powerful downhill assault, but it should have been stopped. The next play is at 1:29 and this is a bit more open as to whether the offense is at fault or whether Ngata just makes a stout defensive play. Again, it's probably a bit of both, but what concerns me most is the way the tight end and the right tackle (number 71, Flozell Adams) handle their block. It's clear from the front that they have Ngata and Lewis. They have to double Ngata then one of them - in this case the tight end - has to slip off and get Lewis. The trouble is that Adams heads inside on his first step, thus preventing him from getting proper position on Ngata. Ideally you'd want Adams to get up in Ngatas face head to head, then with the aid of the tight end they would turn Ngatas shoulders and butt out of the hole. As it is they can't turn him (indeed, to his credit Ngata turns Adams) as the tight end slips off to get Lewis. So it's kind of a 50/50, part bad blocking, part great D-line play. Any coaches reading this would be advised to get the clip and use it as an example to their O-line of the importance of the first step. The next play starts at around the 1:48 mark and again we find Steelers Center Maurkice Pouncey (number 53) head up with Ngata. Now again Ngata does show off his physical skills by throwing Pouncey to one side, then tossing aside Guard Doug Legursky, before finally tracking the play laterally with surprising agility for a man of his size. But here again I have to question the blocking by Pouncey. As a lineman you cant afford to give the opponent a two-way go. You have to commit to blocking him one way or the other. It's the responsibility of the back to read the block and then cut off it in the appropriate direction. Instead Pouncey kind of rides Ngatas shoulder wondering and waiting for him to make a move. You've either got to cross his face and keep him trapped inside or stay inside of him, let him run out and wait for the back to cut in; when he does (which he ended up doing) Ngata will turn to make the tackle (which he did) and then you're perfectly placed to drive into Ngata and seal him outside. The last play is just Ngata being a great athlete. He doesn't make the play but it's all kinds of fun to watch. So what do we learn from this? That the Steelers need some work on their O-line. That rookie Maurkice Pouncey is still a rookie. That sometimes you have to sit back and look at the whole picture to really understand what's going on. But importantly for me, if the Steelers can be as good as they are at running the football with O-line play like this, how much better could they be at it with a little extra work? Have a great day everyone.

Monday Night Football

Patriots 41 @ Dolphins 14 -- What's worse than a pick gone wrong? A pick gone wrong largely because of special teams? What's worse than that? Typing up a recap and then having Internet Explorer eat it like the bag of s**t that it is. I'm pretty stunned at how bad this went. It went so badly that Dolphins special teams coach John Bonamego got the boot today. After a first half that was kept close thanks to two picks by Patriots LB Rob Ninkovich (who also finished the game with a sack), the second half went down the toilet for Miami real quick. First Brandon Tate took a kick off back 103 yards for the score, then Patriots safety Pat Chung took advantage of a numbers mismatch on the left side of the Dolphins protection to block a punt that led to a short field and the Patriots first offensive TD. An exchange of TDs finished off the 3rd quarter, then in the 4th the meltdown was complete as Chung came free on a field goal rush and blocked a kick that was scooped and returned for a TD by Kyle Arrington. Not satisfied that he'd caused Miami enough misery, Chung then came up with an interception which he returned 51 yards for another score. And that my friends is a Bill Belichick second round pick all over; looking for guys who can contribute on special teams as well as at their normal positions. On offense Brady was clinically efficient completing 19 of his 24 passes for 153 yards and a TD. LB Jerod Mayo gets a nod as well for his game leading 14 tackles (eat your heart out Patrick Willis). It shouldn't be overlooked that despite a crappy special teams show and the four interceptions, the Dolphins did collect 23 first downs, went 10/15 on third downs and gained 400 net yards on a Pats defense that still looks like it's about to implode at any minute. But then with special teams play like this I doubt Bill Belichick cares much.... I'll round off today with some extra points: -- The Patriots were the latest team to bust out the old "fake spike". In the end the throw was poor and Moss was unable to corral it (he had zero catches on the night). But still, I have to complain because I hate this play. You might be wondering why I frown on this type of deception given that teams routinely fake run plays and then pass. The reason is simple; on a play-pass the defense understands that the ball is live. On a fake spike they're being fooled into thinking the play is dead. That means everyone on defense stops. It's a breach of the good faith that exists on such plays and it stinks. Might as well run the "Coach, wrong ball" play (look it up on YouTube). -- Nice to see Peyton Manning and the Colts are still getting away with running pick plays in the red zone to get some of their TDs. If the league thinks it's not a big deal then that's fine... but remove the rule banning them. Otherwise just enforce the damn thing already! Oh wait, I forgot. Colts GM Bill Polian is on the competition committee. -- The assault on Kevin Kolb (classic idea to put the "publish" button next to the "save draft" button) continues in earnest. This week he is being bashed from all corners for checking down too much in the game against Washington. If you don't like check downs then that's ok, but almost every commentator/analyst/expert is basically following the line "If you keep passing short you'll never win games".

I think some people need to go back and watch some film on Joe Montana. In any given game you can count the number of passes he throws beyond the 20 yard line ('air yards') on two hands. You can count the number of completions involving 20 or more 'air yards' on one hand. Scratch that. Often on one finger.

It's not ideal so far, but Kolb can and most probably will get better. His receivers will start making up the yards after the catch. And the longer, ball control type drives might be just the remedy that the Eagles defense needs. Take the fingers off the panic buttons Eagles offense. For now at least.

Have a great day everyone.

Full Sunday round up

It's time to look back at the rest of Sundays games (I covered the Bears @ Giants last night. You did read it didn't you?). However sitting back and reviewing the blog I'm concerned. It takes approximately 5 hours to collate all my notes, review all the stats and figures, to develop my final thoughts and then to put it all down on an electronic page. The biggest chunk of that time is spent flicking back and forth looking at all the numbers and making sure I have everything down right. Somehow that aspect just doesn't appeal right now. While I enjoy and take pride in highlighting some of the performances that might otherwise get over shadowed by the mainstream press, particularly defensive players who put in good showings (those defensive guys never get enough love), it's also very time consuming and it strikes me that most people have the capability (you obviously have an Internet connection if your reading this) to check such stats themselves. So I'm going to try and focus more from now on on the opinion side of things. On that note, let's begin: Jets 38 @ Bills 14 -- You can't believe how smug I am right now. When LaDanian Tomlinson was released by the Chargers I made the argument, contrary to almost all the "expert" opinions that LT still had something left in the tank and that his declining production was caused by a combination of the Chargers O-line, their pass orientated approach and their use of LT in certain shorter yardage situations. I believed that behind the O-line of a more run heavy team like the Jets, he would once again come good. Another 19 carries for 133 yards and 2 TDs to add to his seasons tally, and that call is looking pretty damn good right now. Unlike the Bills, who just look awful. Bengals 20 @ Browns 23 -- Time for some more smugness? I think so. Terrell Owens was widely touted to be nothing more than a washed up wide out who would struggle to make any kind of impact. I disagreed, feeling that TO still had plenty of go. Another 10 catches, 220 yards and a TD later, and once again I was proved right. Unfortunately the rest of the Bengals weren't quite as productive. This includes an O-line that gave up four sacks to the Browns. The Browns! In fairness to Eric Mangini's team, they've played hard and kept the faith this season. This is their first reward and there may be more to come. FB Peyton Hillis has emerged as a powerful runner who can gain the tough yards, and is a nice complement to QB Seneca Wallace who may not light up the scoreboards but does enough to help his team through. Ravens 17 @ Steelers 14 -- Time for some more smugness? No. I was sitting down patting myself on the back for picking the Steelers over the Ravens, especially given the surge of Ravens support for this one. Then with 32 seconds left, I was undone. Despite some hard running by Rashard Mendenhall who took home two TDs, it wasn't enough to put the stop on 'Air Flacco' finding receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the end zone to spoil the party. The Steelers will stay positive though, understanding that with Big Ben coming back things can only look up for their offense, while the Ravens are still looking at their pass offense and wondering when it is going to explode. Broncos 26 @ Titans 20 -- I still don't know how the Broncos won this. They managed just two sacks to the Titans six. The Broncos ran 20 rushing plays for a net total of 19 yards. Everything about this should spell defeat. Of course it helps when your opponents forget that Chris Johnson is their best offensive player. 19 carries plus 3 catches doesn't cut it. I've long been a believer that at this level, tactical skill is relative. Everyone has a complex system, everyone watches tons of film. Therefore the question of personnel and its effective use becomes paramount. The under utilization of Chris Johnson is a concern for me. Lions 26 @ Packers 28 -- What was I just saying about under utilization of personnel? Jahvid Best = 12 carries and 5 catches. Am I the only one who saw what Best did to the Eagles defense? (Shame about the Lions D though). At first the Packers seemed to be cruising but the upstart Lions fought back. However four drives in the last two quarters that ended with field goals really cost the Lions. Their inability to find the end zone must be frustrating for a Lions team that isn't really as bad as their record shows. They're like the Bears in reverse. 49ers 14 @ Falcons 16 -- Once again the 49ers astound the world with their ability to throw games away. In Bill Walsh's book "Finding the Winning Edge" (I'm starting to sound like Michael Lombardi) he brings up points that he considers fundamental truths of football (I forget the precise title of the segment; the book is not to hand and I can't be bothered to get up and go get it). One of the points he makes for the defense is that on any long run after a turnover, there is a risk of players losing concentration and fumbling the ball right back. Nate Clements should really try reading it. (During the proof read I have decided to go and look it up. The section is called "Reinforcing Defensive Axioms" on pages 314-315. The exact line is; "Everyone should be aware that 'Big' fumbles often occur at the end of 'big' plays. For example, after an interception or a fumble recovery and a subsequent run, a defensive player - not used to handling the ball - can have it knocked loose.") More to the point, how can the state of ball security in the NFL be this lax? Is this not a fundamental of the game? If players are complaining about the length and usefulness of mini-camps and training camps, should not their basic skills in return be flawless? I give up. Panthers 14 @ Saints 16 -- Last week the running theme was teams putting up big yardage numbers without much end product to speak of. This week it seems to be about using your best players wisely. Enter now the Panthers. When DeAngelo Williams busted out a 39 yard run for a TD, that should have been the hint that the Panthers needed. Put the ball in the hands of your best guys and watch the resulting fireworks. But no. Williams and Stewart accrued a massive 20 carries between them. The Saints stuck to what they know. Brees threw 48 times for 275 yards, but they have to be worried that teams are starting to take away the deep ball and asking the Saints to drive all the way down the field on 15 play drives. New Orleans may be 3-1, but how long will that winning record hold out? Seahawks 3 @ Rams 20 -- Minus two kick off returns for a TD and the Seahawks look bad. They just don't seem to have an offense tucked away in there. Or maybe it was just down to a Rams defense that has quietly roared out of obscurity. If you ignore Kansas and Minnesota who were on a bye, the Rams defense is placed third for least points conceded, right behind the Steelers and the Dolphins. Yes, the Steelers and the Dolphins! They also tie the Steelers D for first in Forced Fumbles with 9 each. All this is allowing Sam Bradford to develop without the pressure of having to make miracles happen on the field, though with nearly 300 yards through the air he's certainly giving it a go. Colts 28 @ Jaguars 31 -- I've checked. I've double checked. I've triple checked. And yes, the Jaguars did indeed beat the Colts. David Garrard remembered what is was like to be an NFL QB again, at least for this game. It was also fun to watch him run an option play with MJD for a TD, especially given the rhetoric from various NFL commentators/analysts etc as to why option plays couldn't possibly work in the NFL (usually the argument is that defenders are too quick, which completely ignores the fact that offensive players are pretty quick themselves). MJD got 26 carries and paid off with 105 yards, a TD and another TD on a quick catch. But Colts fans shouldn't despair. Their team is still very good and it could be argued that they beat themselves to some degree. Now, if NFL just decides it's going to start enforcing the rule about 'pick' plays, then that's a different matter..... Texans 31 @ Raiders 24 -- The Texans O-line is probably the most surprising package of this year. Given the pass heavy nature of the Texans in recent years, I've been really amazed at how well they can run block. And running backs Derrick Ward and Arian Foster have been loving every minute of it. Foster was benched at the start of the game due to discipline issues related to turning up late for team meetings, but he soon found his groove. I also feel sorry however for Raiders QB Bruce Gradkowski. His two interceptions came from a tip and dropped pass that was batted up in the air. He deserves better and I think he will get it if Oakland sticks with him. I was also wrong about Richard Seymour and Kamerion Wimbley. In fact I was wrong about the entire Raiders D as they failed to generate a single sack. Redskins 17 @ Eagles 12 -- I'm almost choking to death from the amount of smoke and bluster that is circling the web over Donovan McNabbs successful return to Philadelphia. The Redskins put up 17 points against an Eagles defense that has looked incredibly suspect so far this season. In addition McNabb completed just 8 passes, less than half of the 19 he threw. All this "I bet the Eagles wish they hadn't traded him" is so dumb it's amazing. Quite the opposite, I bet Andy Reid went home, had a whisky to quell the upset over the loss, then fell out of his chair laughing at how clever his move was. He traded McNabb to the Redskins who have looked just as bad as they did last year, meanwhile the Eagles used the second round pick (37th overall) that they received in the trade to pick up Nate Allen, a very promising young safety. If it wasn't for Vick going down injured this one had all the makings of a victory romp as Vick calmly picked the Redskins defense apart. As it was, Kolb checked down once too often and the Eagles slipped to 2-2. Cardinals 10 @ Chargers 41 -- Ho-ly crap! TE Antonio Gates caught 7 passes for 144 yards and 2 TDs. RB Ryan Matthews and FB Mike Tolbert combined for 155 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. Then on top of that the Chargers defense rustled up 9 sacks, including 4 by LB Shaun Philips who also returned an interception for a TD. With this game the Chargers proved that there is life still in the 'bolts'. The Cardinals proved that they are even worse than anyone previously thought at the beginning of the year. They look lost on offense and absolutely putrid on defense. QB Derek Anderson was pulled in favour of rookie Max Hall, but that had little effect on the result. Man, what a butt kicking!! So, that's all the games and it leaves me pick wise for this week at 7-6, with the Dolphins hosting the Patriots tonight and carrying with them my hopes of going 8-6 and finally putting up a winning pick performance in this aberration of a season. I'll probably be back later to recap the game but in keeping however with the opening to this post, it's likely that I'm going to have to cut back the number of posts. Currently I've tried where possible to squeak out at least one post per day, but from now on I'm thinking of scaling back a little. Do keep checking back as I will be keeping the blog active, just not so much on a daily basis anymore. Have a great day everyone.

Sunday Night Football

I don't have time to recap all of Sundays action, but I do have to cover the late game:

Bears 3 @ Giants 17 -- Last week I said that the Sunday Night game between the Jets and Dolphins was one of the best games I've seen in a long time. This was one of the worst.

In fact, it probably is the worst game of football I've ever had the misfortune to watch.

It was terrible. Cutler was beyond bad, loitering in the pocket like a man waiting for a bus that was never going to arrive. It was just appalling to watch. And the 17 points put up by the Giants are nothing more than a facade. The Giants offense was just as bad. Their run blocking was hideous. I've seen clips of kids games that had better line play.

I just don't know what to say. The Giants filled their boots with 10 sacks on the night, including three for Justin Tuck and three for Osi Umenyiora. I'm just in shock, mentally scarred at having wasted a little over 3 hours watching a hideous contest that barely registers as a sporting spectacle. I'd have rather watched a game of golf.

On the plus side, at least I got the pick right.

Have a great day everyone.

Week 4 NFL picks (part 2)

Time to finish off my picks for Week 4, starting with:

Colts @ Jaguars -- The Jaguars are truly horrible. I mean truly and utterly horrible. They have an appalling secondary and against Peyton Manning & the Colts that is basically a death sentence. Colts win.

Texans @ Raiders -- The Texans minus starting left tackle Duane Brown were well and truly beaten up by the Cowboys. DeMarcus Ware had a field day with 3 sacks and more pressures. The question then becomes whether the Raiders can match this feat and also run rough shod over Matt Schaub? I think they can. Two names spring to mind; Kamerion Wimbley and Richard Seymour. I imagine both guys will finish with at least a 1 in the sack column next to their name. I'm also anticipating Bruce Gradkowski and Darren McFadden ripping apart a terrible D. Raiders win.

Redskins @ Eagles -- Donovan McNabb returns to Philadelphia looking to stick it to his old team and a legion of fans who are unhappy with McNabb for not taking them to Superbowl glory. Many have argued this and point that McNabb took the team to the big game once and to the NFC Championship game many other times. Others still would argue that if it wasn't for McNabb then they would have won more than just one of those multiple championship games.

Whichever way you lean, it's pretty safe to say that this will be an emotionally charged game. Which I see Philly winning. I like Vick as a runner and passer, certainly more so than McNabb. I like LeSean McCoy better than Clinton Portis. I like DeSean Jackson more than Santana Moss. Maybe the Redskins earn the TE edge with Chris Cooley over Brent Celek, but even that is tight. I certainly like the Eagles D over the Redskins D, which says a lot about the Redskins D. Anyway, Eagles win.

Cardinals @ Chargers -- There is always one game per week where you really don't fancy either team. You think both are equally capable of losing through their own ineptness. This would be it for week 4. I dislike the Chargers just a little less than the Cardinals, so I'll give them the edge. Chargers win.

Bears @ Giants -- If it wasn't for the game above, this could probably qualify as the "don't fancy either team to win it" game. The Bears are quite possibly the worst 3-0 team in history. The Giants are just plain bad. Their vaunted pass rush went missing last year and has failed to return this year. Even the offense is looking bad. Sure they can put up the yards. But scores? No. So who do I dislike more? Even though they're 3-0 I think I have to go against the Bears. Surely they cant come up lucky 4 weeks running? Giants win.

Patriots @ Dolphins -- A Monday Night match up with lots of potential. I have no doubt that the Patriots D is going to give up a ton of points once again. The Dolphins offense is more than capable. But how will the Dolphins D handle the Patriots offense? Can they limit them sufficiently? I like the Dolphins secondary. Enough to pick them. Dolphins win.

Have a great day everyone.

NFL Week 4 picks (part 1)

It's that time again. Friday. That means I have to make my picks for the 1:00 pm kick offs. It's going to be a little short (and hopefully sweet) as I'm pretty tired. For those who are naturally intrigued as to why this is so; I've just got back in with a brand new exercise bike which I had to carry over my shoulder for about a half mile. Yeah, I'm pretty whacked:

Jets @ Bills -- God bless the Bills for trying but the Jets D is very strong and Sanchez looks far more competent and settled than he did in the pre-season. I can see the Bills pushing Spiller and perhaps making this game a little closer than some might think, but I just don't think Ryan Fitzpatrick can lead his team consistently down the field against this D. Jets win.

Bengals @ Browns -- Another game that might finish closer than people think, but you still have to feel that the Bengals will win this one. I don't see Seneca Wallace or Jake Delhomme picking apart the excellent corner back pairing of Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph, while I can see Carson Palmer finding some rhythm against the Browns D. Bengals win.

Ravens @ Steelers -- Two great defenses collide and I know a lot of people are picking the Ravens because they feel that Charlie Batch will struggle. Well I think Joe Flacco will struggle too. If that's the case and it comes down to the rushing attacks, then Ray Rice will have a harder time against the "Steel Curtain" than Rashard Mendenhall will have against Ravens unusually bad run defense. Steelers win.

Broncos @ Titans -- The Broncos have been struck lately by injuries to their running backs, which is just about the worst thing that could happen to a team that already struggles to convert yards into points inside the red zone. The Titans D is all kinds of impressive and coupled with the explosive abilities of running back Chris Johnson, I have to give the Titans the edge. Titans win.

Lions @ Packers -- I just cant back the Lions. The Packers narrowly missed beating the Bears as their offense and defense combined to chuck away good opportunities with penalties, but even if they rein themselves in a little against the Lions, that should still be enough to do the job. And the Lions secondary is still terrible. Packers win.

49ers @ Falcons -- Even given the bold change at the offensive coordinator position, the fact remains that Mike Singletary is under the closest scrutiny of any NFL Head Coach right now. A team that should have dominated the NFC West this season is currently 3-0. The Falcons meanwhile are playing very good on both sides of the ball and I see them repeating this form at home. Falcons win.

Panthers @ Saints -- This is precisely the kind of game the Panthers should lose handily but might defy all predictions and break out 25 carries for DeAngelo Williams with another healthy 12-15 carries on top for Jonathan Stewart. The end result will be explosive plays in the running game. But then again, this is the Panthers. The Saints want revenge for last weeks loss to the Falcons and to prove they still rule the NFC South. Saints win.

Seahawks @ Rams -- The Seahawks have been great at home so far, but let's not take away the fact that they needed two big plays in the kicking game to sink an off par San Diego last week. The Rams meanwhile have been surprisingly good at stopping teams from putting up points on them. While they will miss the explosive potential of Steven Jackson in their rushing attack, they still have enough pieces to punish Seattle. I'm taking a leap of faith on this one. Rams win.

So there we have it. I'm actually very confident in most of these picks, except maybe the Panthers @ Saints for the aforementioned reason that the Panthers might just spoil the party by reverting to their heavy rushing attack that they've so far abandoned this season like an unwanted child. But it's week 4 and I think I've got a handle on most teams now. Almost....

Have a great day everyone.

Crawling through the NFL minefield

I want to start today with a random thought unrelated to football. I don't know how many people reading this went to a camp of some kind when they were at school, but if you did I'm sure you took part in a number of activities such as archery or orienteering. One thing I'm pretty damn sure you didn't do was to learn how to diffuse land mines. I know I didn't.

My Nephew has.

His camp is all about learning how kids in Africa live and as a part of the camp they're teaching the kids how to recognise and diffuse land mines. Holy s**t. Makes those crappy "build a bridge using newspapers" team building exercises look tame in comparison.

Now, back to football. The other day the NFL Network crew of Mike Mayock, Solomon Wilcots and Sterling Sharpe broke down some film from the Dolphins/Jets game. The thing they were most interested in was Brandon Marshall appearing to ease up in the final moments of the game as the Dolphins were looking for a TD and a 2-point conversion. According to ProFootballTalk, Brandon was not happy.

I've seen the segment and I watched the game. I was thinking of doing a post about their video, but didn't think it was substantial enough to warrant a full gig. I guess now there is a reason. See I'm backing Marshall on this one for two reasons:

1) On the first play, Henne just didn't throw a good enough pass. On the second Marshall was in the end zone with his hand up looking for the ball. On number 3 Henne doesn't even look at him. On play 4 Marshall actually gets free on the goal line. Calling Marshall lazy is wrong at best. It fails to take into account the other factors involved, not least the actual reality of what Marshall did. At worst it was lazy analysis, picking an easy target because he earns so much money.

2) The Dolphins knew that Marshall would struggle if Cromartie played bump and run. They knew this because they'd seen it earlier in the game and had made an adjustment. By sending Marshall in motion they'd been able to force Cromartie to back off a little and allow Marshall to get a better release. So the blame has to fall at the feet of offensive coordinator Dan Henning to some degree.

I just hate this kind of thing. Sometimes Playbook can be a great show and I tip my hat to Mayocks excellent "Anatomy of a Play" segment this week on the Seahawks two special teams return TDs. But given their collective NFL experience and knowledge, surely the Playbook crew should be able to avoid dumb mistakes like this? Maybe it was just a slow week for film study?

Talking of slow weeks, I can't think of something clever and creative to discuss, so I'm going to fall back on the classic "stat attack" by perusing (yeah, check out the lingo!) the NFLs stat tables to see where everyone stands after three weeks. All stats are lifted from NFL.com, which should theoretically been the most accurate source.

Shall we begin? What do you mean you want to go and make a coffee? Ah Jesus, ok hurry up....... back? Ready? Good.

We'll start then on offense. Remember I said in the recap of the week 3 games that some teams are clocking up the yards but not getting it done in the red zone? Well the two leading teams in total yardage are the Chargers and Broncos with a combined win/loss record of 2-4. The 1-2 Dallas Cowboys check in at number 5.

Scarily the Chargers are one of the leading teams in almost every statistical offensive category, until you get to third down percentage when they drop to 14th with 38%.

Interesting to look at the turnover rates. Those teams in the top ten are; Steelers, Jets (+6), Buccaneers, Bengals, Eagles, Falcons, Colts (+4), Saints, Bears (+3), Redskins (+2).

In terms of offensive passing, the top ten in passing yards contain just 5 teams with winning records (Bears, Colts, Saints, Texans, Patriots). Conversely the top ten teams in rushing yardage contain 8 teams with a winning record and just two with a losing record (Raiders, Vikings).

Looking at the offensive line - QB hits in particular - it's very revealing to see that some of the worst teams in the league right now are right up there. The Eagles lead the pack, but with the nature of the way that Vick plays it's difficult to really take much from that. Next is the 49ers, Bills, Panthers, Jaguars, Bears, Giants, Bengals, Cardinals, Texans. You could argue that the Bears are the aberration, but then we all know the Bears have had more than a helping hand along the way. And given the amount of rushing the Texans did in week 1, that's a really bad sign that they're up here!

On defense the top ten in terms of least points allowed contains a mixed bag; Steelers, Chiefs, Vikings, Ravens, Titans, Falcons, Packers, Jets, Rams, Bears/Dolphins. Some very good teams in there.

Looking at yards allowed through the air, the ominous signs loom for the Texans and Redskins who come in first and second. Surprisingly the Raiders are the second best team against the pass.

Can't help but laugh that the Buccaneers are joint top in the league for interceptions with Atlanta (6). Signs maybe that Raheem Morris is turning his team around? In joint third is the Panthers, Bengals, Eagles, Steelers and Chargers.

But the question is which team is the best against the run so far? The Steelers? No, third. The Jets? No, fourth. The Ravens? No, twenty second (yeah, I know!). It's the Bears. Followed by the Texans.

The sack leaders thus far are; Packers (13), Eagles (12), Lions (WTF?) (11), Steelers/Titans (10).

Passes defended?; Eagles (25), Panthers/Dolphins/Jets (23), Cardinals/Redskins (22),

Forced Fumbles?; Rams (WTF?) (8), Steelers (7), Lions/Seahawks/Titans (5),

Right, so what have we learnt? Not a lot really. The Steelers and Jets are pretty good. The Ravens might be a little over rated so far this year. The Eagles are creeping up on everyone out of nowhere. Other that, what can I say? It's week 3. As I've always believed, statistics alone when looked at in a closed manner tend to mean very little and say very little about the teams. Only when you actually watch the games and take into account the various factors that go into a game of football does it all make sense.

And so ends this exercise in futility. Tomorrow we have another one, as I make my week 4 picks. Till then,

Have a great day everyone.