Week 10 NFL picks

Another week, another round of picks. Last week I was 8-5 which takes my tally over the three weeks I've been doing this to 26-13, which is exactly a .666 percentage. Maybe the devil is guiding me? Doubt it. I took the 49'ers for last nights game so I'm already 1-0 this week, not a bad start. I'd also like to do a bit of boasting. I was reading the latest article by NFL Network analyst Jason La Canfora, who gave some credit to Cowboys DT Jay Ratliff for his recent work, something I did a few days ago. He also wondered what has happened to Marvin Harrison and why no one has taken him... as I did last week. And he was 6-7 in his picks last week, compared to my modest 8-5. I should get paid for this blog..... So anyway, here's my picks for week 10 of the 2009 NFL season: Falcons@ Panthers : Both teams can run the ball hard. Both teams have dubious defenses. Carolina is just starting to realise again that DeAngelo Williams gives them their best chance of winning. Atlanta is just starting to remember that plenty of carries for Michael Turner opens up defenses for their dangerous pass attack. With Williams, Jonathan Stewart and TE Dante Rosario all not fully fit, questions have to be asked about the Panthers offense. The bait of a weak Falcons secondary may prove too tempting for Carolina, encouraging them to ask QB Jake Delhomme to throw the football more. That will only result in trouble. I think the Falcons have better weapons on both sides of the ball. Falcons win. Buccaneers@ Dolphins : The Bucs' are coming into this game after their first win of the season and a pretty good game by their rookie QB Josh Freeman. The Dolphins meanwhile are gonna be frustrated at losing a game to the Patriots last week which was tighter than many expected. The Dolphins have just unveiled a new wrinkle to their 'Wildcat' offense, with QB Pat White running College style option plays with the assistance of Ricky Williams. The question is this; can the Dolphins play sufficient ball control offense to force the Bucs' rookie Freeman into making desperation plays against the Dolphins rookie corners? I think they can. I'm backing the Dolphins for the win. Lions@ Vikings : What the Lions really need right now to help turn them around is to travel to Minnesota and play the Vikings. In the same way that what I really need right now is a pair of boxer shorts made from molten lava. Complete the film title: Texas Chainsaw ________ ? Do that and you get all the summary you'll need for this game. Favre is nursing a groin injury but he has stated to the press that he doesn't think it'll be an issue. Even if the guy had no legs he could still beat the Lions. Look for Jared Allen to also push up his numbers this week. Vikings win. Jaguars@ Jets : This is a three man tag team contest. It's Mark Sanchez, Thomas Jones and Shonne Greene versus David Garrard, Maurice Jones-Drew and Rashad Jennings. Both teams have plenty of production on the ground, the question is, who can do it through the air. Neither Sanchez nor Garrard has consistently produced this year. Both have had their highs, but both have had their lows as well. Sanchez has the better receiving corps, but will his inexperience compared to Garrard work against him? I think so. It's a tight pick, but I'm leaning towards the Jags. Jaguars win. Bengals@ Steelers : The AFC North could largely hang on this game. That's quite a statement, but it will affect tie breaking decisions at the end of the season, which could happen in a very tight divisional race. Both teams are sitting pretty as of late. Both teams have the potential to air the ball out for big gains, and to drive the ball hard on the ground for tough yards. Defensively, they both bring great pressure up front and they both have constrictive secondaries. The Steelers however are better at stopping the run. And more importantly, they have Troy Polamalu back, someone who was absent in the previous meeting this season between these teams. It's a real tough one. There are plenty of reasons why each team could win this game. Ultimately though, I think there are two things that swing it. 1) Roethlisberger likes to buy time in the pocket, move around, and give his receivers a chance to get wide open (by NFL standards anyway). Against the Bengals fast pass rush, I can't see that strategy working. 2) The Steelers will probably try and double Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco. That's going to open up plays downfield for Laveranues Coles and Andre Caldwell. Keep and eye on Caldwell in particular. Palmer likes finding him for last minute, game winning touchdowns. Bengals win. Saints@ Rams : Complete the film title. Texas Chainsaw ________? Yes folks, remarkably enough, I'm going with Saints. Having backed them to fall flat on their faces for three weeks running, I can't possibly contemplate going against them in this one. The Rams are too bad, they're too good. The only last ditch hope that the Rams have is to give the ball to Steven Jackson, chew a ton of clock, get some scores, and hope their defense can hold New Orleans to something like less than 20 points. So like I said, Saints are gonna win. Easily. Which knowing my luck, probably means the Rams will shock everyone..... but I severely doubt it. Saints win. Bills@ Titans : Simply put, the Bills rank dead last against the run. And I mean dead last. They even surpass the Browns for the poor quality of their run defense. And on the other side of the ball? The Titans are second only to the Jets in total rushing yardage and lead the league in average yards per carry, rushes over 20 yards (13) and rushes over 40 yards (6). There is little doubt that the Titans will grind out the Bills, with Buffalo having little to come back with in terms of offense. And so the hopes of the men in red and blue will fall squarely on the shoulders of rookie safety, Jarius Byrd. If he can pick off a couple of Vince Young passes, then maybe the Bills can squeeze their way back into this game. But don't count on it. When he's on form, Young is one of the most accurate and safe passers in the league. I'm going with Tennessee on this one. Titans win. Broncos@ Redskins : Another battle that doesn't seem as clear cut as you might expect. The Redskins D ranks 6th best in te league for total yards against and number 1 for passing yards allowed per game. That means Randy Orton and company will likely have a tough time throwing the ball against a reasonably tight defensive unit. The trouble as far as Washington is concerned starts when their offense gets the ball back. They rank 24th in total yards per game and 29th for points scored. While Jason Campbell has been much maligned for his lack of production this season, the reality is that the Redskins have three times as many touchdowns via passing as they do rushing (9 vs. 3). The Redskins simply can't run the ball, especially down in the red zone. The Broncos however aren't much better. They match Washington for passing touchdowns, while putting just one extra rushing touchdown on the board. It really is set to be a low scoring, slug it out battle. While I think the Broncos might lead the sack tally by the end of the game, I think the Redskins will lead the interception tally. Redskins win. Chiefs@ Raiders : Blurgh!! For those of you who have to watch this bile on telly, I'll be thinking of you. Damn, this is one nasty game. The Raiders are hopeless. Since picking up Chris Chambers off waivers (formerly of the Chargers), the Chiefs are now a little less hopeless. Also, look for sophomore RB Jamaal Charles (29 carries, 152 yds) to step up into the breach created by Larry Johnsons departure. He and Kolby Smith could breath a new lease of life into this team. Maybe. Chiefs win. Seahawks@ Cardinals : Oh my. The Seahawks can't defend the pass too well. The Cardinals pass the ball about 80% of the time. That spells trouble. In great chunks. Last week, Kurt Warner threw 5 TD's against a poor Bears team. The only saving grace for the Seahawks is that Arizona has struggled at home and that their QB Matt Hasselbeck is supposed to be back now to full fitness. Oh, and the fact that the Cardinals pass defence is even worse than Seattle's. It's a sketchy pick this one, but I'm taking the Seahawks. Seahawks win. Cowboys@ Packers : What Aaron Rodgers really needs is a good rest. He needs to relax, and have a sack free game. Unfortunately the Packers entertain the Cowboys this week! That means DeMarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff will be out and about, inflating their season sack tallies handsomely this week (as did Jared Allen of the Vikings in his two games against the Packers). The sole shining light in Green Bay is that their defence isn't too shabby. Statistically speaking at least. But here's the problem, both with Green Bay and with Statistics in general. Three of Green Bays games so far have been against the Rams, the Lions and the Browns. The Browns scored just 3 points, the Lions none, and the Rams notched up 17. Either the Packers truly have a top 10 defence or they've just benefited from an easy (ier) schedule. Regardless, Cowboys win. Eagles@ Chargers : Hmm, toughie. But first a question. It's 4th down and less than a yard to go. You fancy a QB sneak will do it. Why in gods name would you come out in a 3 TE set? The QB, having received the snap, will pretty much just launch himself straight forward. The defensive ends have no chance of crashing down on the play in time. You're just inviting the defense to pile guys up over the center and stuff the play. At least try and spread the D a little. Anyway, like I said, toughie. I don't think the Eagles are as bad as some of their results this season make out. They haven't been playing to their full potential, but they should win this one. The Chargers are pretty much relying on Philip Rivers and I don't fancy him against a nifty Eagles pass rush. Eagles win. Patriots@ Colts : Even tougher. The Patriots injury list for this one is quite something. And the Colts play on both sides of the ball has been quite something as well. The Pats are ticking along just nicely, but you wonder how they'll match up against a fearsome pass rush from Dwight Freeney and some excellent play from the Colts rookie corners this season. I think Manning is the master right now and his greater spread of receivers will set him in good stead. Either way, this is going to be a fun game to watch, and I'm really glad I get the chance to watch it!! Albeit on TV. By no means a certain pick, but I think the Colts have enough to see off the Pats. Colts win. Ravens@ Browns : Complete the title of the film, Texas Chainsaw ________? Yeah I know, it's getting old, but I like it and it sums up this one perfectly. As if the Browns didn't have enough to worry about already, expect Ray Rice to inflict more heavy damage on their already brittle confidence. Brady Quinn will start for the Browns, but as I explained yesterday, I don't think it'll help them much. Ravens win. So there we have it, all my picks for week 10 of the season. There's 15 games in total, so 15 wins up for grabs. With one already played yesterday I'm 1-0 this week. Let's see if I cant push that win column into double figures.